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On today's podcast episode, we discuss how much people are actually searching on social media platforms versus looking elsewhere, what a TikTok ban could do to social search, and how AI-powered chatbots are changing how we look for things. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf.

Instagram is shutting down its livestream shopping business: The move is the latest sign of US shoppers' disinterest in livestream commerce.

Shoppers are relying on their smartphones more, as enhancements in mobile payments, social media checkout, and retailer apps make purchases easier than ever. This year, US shoppers will spend $558.29 billion on their mobile devices, accounting for 44.6% of overall ecommerce sales, according to our November 2023 forecast. We delve into the consumer embrace of mcommerce, unpacking three key drivers.

鈥淥ut-of-home (OOH) is cost-effective. It's measurable. It's targetable. You can be hyperlocal with it,鈥� said founder and CEO at Quan Media Brian Rappaport. It鈥檚 also growing. US OOH ad spend will increase by 6.5% this year, reaching $9.51 billion dollars, according to our October 2023 forecast. But an added benefit is OOH鈥檚 potential to create organic impressions on social media.

While making up just 2% of US market share in their categories, the 97 companies on Bain鈥檚 Insurgent Brands 2024 list captured nearly 20% of incremental category growth last year, per the firm.

US cosmetic and beauty sales are expected to grow over 10% this year鈥攎ore than three times the 2.9% rate of the overall retail market, according to our forecast. It鈥檚 a sign of the 鈥渓ipstick effect,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves on our 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

Moving across the US-Canada border can be the first step toward international expansion for retailers. Canadian brands like lululemon athletica and Aritzia are thriving in the US. Meanwhile, US-based companies Lowe鈥檚, Nordstrom, and Bed Bath & Beyond recently announced they were leaving Canada. And let鈥檚 not forget Target鈥檚 famous Canadian failure. Here鈥檚 a look at how brands on both sides of the border have fared, and the lessons you can learn from them.

Facebook and YouTube will still be the top US social media platforms for buying ads or monetizing content this year, though their dominance is eroding, according to October 2022 polling by Integral Ad Science.

Key stat: 82% of US creators will earn income from sponsored content this year, down from 91% in 2021, according to Mavrck.

Amid privacy changes and macroeconomic headwinds, social media will be the channel hurt most by the digital advertising downturn. For 2023, we have reduced our US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion.

The US ad market grew for the first time in 11 months this May, according to Standard Media鈥檚 US Ad Market Tracker. Now the question is if expansion can continue. June and the start of July brought a host of ad updates that could help continued growth, including ad tools enhancements from Google and Microsoft, retail media opportunities from Roku and Uber, and more. Here鈥檚 a breakdown of what鈥檚 new.

The majority of US Gen Zers are now adults, according to the US Census Bureau. The cohort is more diverse than any other generation and has a distinct identity shaped by its digital dependency during the pandemic. Gen Z has emerged with a distinct 鈥渕e mentality,鈥� prioritizing mental health and individuality after a childhood behind screens.

Gen Z will represent 20% of the US population in 2023, and nearly 40 million of these Gen Zers are adults. This is the data you need to understand how to reach them鈥攁nd tap their growing buying power.

US annual social commerce sales per buyer will nearly double from $627.8 in 2023 to $1,223.7 in 2027, according to our forecast.

Apple鈥檚 VR headset, the Apple Vision Pro, became available in the US on February 2. Almost immediately after, brands began announcing immersive experiences that would be available for download on the headset.

Key stat: US influencer marketing spend will grow more than three times faster than social ad spend in 2023, and it will remain ahead through 2025, according to our forecast.

Go further: Read our US Retail Ecommerce Returns 2024 report.

Social users in the US will spend more than half their daily social time watching videos in 2023鈥攗p from one-third pre-pandemic. But social video鈥檚 growth is slowing, suggesting there鈥檚 a limit to the amount people want to consume daily.

The old form of social networking may be dying. But our forecast shows people spend more time on social platforms, so marketers need to be aware of what the new era of social media looks like. Gen Z and TikTok certainly dominate social media headlines, but Meta maintains a stronghold, even as it struggles to make new endeavors like Threads take off.

The competition: Google is still the undisputed king of search advertising, with a projected $57.49 billion in US search ad revenues this year, per our forecast. Despite being an early mover in generative AI search, Microsoft is well behind Google, with a forecast $5.84 billion in US search ad revenues this year. 鈥淚 think Bing Chat is the best AI product that鈥檚 out there right now,鈥� said Ray.

It also echoes the study鈥檚 finding that 95% of US financial institutions maintain an active presence on Facebook. Navy Federal Credit Union, based in Vienna, Virginia, with $156.6 billion in assets under management. Differentiation: Its specialized customer base consists of active-duty military service people, veterans, and their families.

We have upped our social user forecast since our last revision in December 2022. And next year, there will be nearly the same number of social users in the US as there are TV viewers, a historic audience shift. If there鈥檚 any medium that鈥檚 鈥渄ying,鈥� it鈥檚 linear TV.

Search is already a major component of retail media; social is the next integration. Advertisers still view social media as a discovery medium and retail media as a conversion-driver. But both platforms are 鈥減otentially full-funnel,鈥� according to Liz Cole, executive director and US head of social at VMLY&R, speaking at our 鈥淎ttention!鈥� summit.