蘑菇AV

Our forecast expects US cosmetics and beauty sales to grow 6.9% in 2024, which would significantly outpace the broader retail industry鈥檚 2.8% growth. The big takeaway: Kimbell set off alarm bells when he spoke at a JPMorgan conference鈥攏ot during the company鈥檚 earnings call鈥攁nd so he may have overstated the issue or simply highlighted a company-specific challenge.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how TikTok Shop has changed the way people shop on social media, how the brands who sell on the platform will be impacted if TikTok goes away, and what they should be thinking about next. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Principal Analyst Sky Canaves and Vice President and Principal Analyst Jasmine Enberg.

The company reported $11.96 billion in Cloud revenues for Q4, up 30% YoY but short of analysts鈥� $12.2 billion forecast. Alphabet expects capital expenditures to surge past $75 billion this year, up from $52.5 billion in 2024 and far past the $58 billion analysts had expected. Total revenues reached $96.5 billion, up 12% YoY but a step down from Q3鈥檚 15.1% growth.

Walmart+鈥攚hich we forecast 16 million US households belong to鈥攈as gained traction by offering free delivery on low-cost groceries, along with other benefits such as discounts on gas and auto repair, and access to Paramount+.

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Amazon is already the biggest US retail media player by far, accounting for 76.2% of all US retail media ad spend, per our November 2024 forecast. Amazon鈥檚 ad revenues will continue double-digit growth through the end of our forecast period next year, and while it's losing share of the overall retail media pie, those losses are slowing.

Electronics and appliance store sales are up just 0.8% year over year (YoY) in the first five months of the year, per the US Commerce Department. However, we expect computer and electronics sales to accelerate throughout the second half of the year. Our forecast expects sales in the category to grow 4.8% YoY, a significant gain after sales fell 2.0% YoY in 2022 and rose just 1.4% YoY last year.

Successful creator campaigns on TikTok rely on partnering with creators who align well with the brand and consistently show love for its products. In 2024, US influencer marketing spend on TikTok is projected to reach $1.403 billion, per 蘑菇AV鈥檚 forecast. Brands that take a genuine approach to collaborating with creators ensure credibility, are more likely to connect with followers, and inspire purchases.

Ecommerce will account for 35% of all back-to-school shopping this year: That鈥檚 a massive shift from the 23% share it accounted for prior to the pandemic as consumers embrace convenience.

The CPG giant forecasts low-single-digit revenue growth this year, in line with the 2% YoY increase in organic revenues it reported for fiscal 2024. Consumers want value: Pepsi CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed the snack category鈥檚 sluggish performance to consumers鈥� focus on value.

A hurting US ad market is showing signs of recovery. Our forecast predicts 3.8% growth in overalUS media ad spend this year, for a total of $353.86 billion. Magna upped its US ad spend forecast for 2023 YoY growth from 4.2% to 5.2% in September. And in August, the US ad market achieved two consecutive months of growth for the first time since last June.

US consumers keep spending: Better-than-expected results from Abercrombie, Dick鈥檚 Sporting Goods, and Cava demonstrate that shoppers are willing to splurge on some nice-to-have items.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss how banks are adjusting their ad spending in a world with high rates, economic turmoil, and a shift to digital advertising. 鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we dig deep on a recently published Insider Intelligence report covering our forecasts for ad spending by US banks and credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we discuss how fewer mortgages are affecting banks' net interest income and what that means for their marketing budgets. We also examine Ally Bank鈥檚 increased ad spending. 鈥� In 鈥淔or Argument鈥檚 Sake,鈥� we talk about how large banks are doubling down on digital ad spending while smaller institutions are cutting their spending, which could lead to the eventual demise of smaller traditional banks. Tune in to the discussion with host Rob Rubin and our director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we explore the problematic relationship between credit unions and Gen Z. 鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we discuss an article from PYMNTS.com that revealed only 4% of Gen Z consumers bank with credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we consider what credit unions can do to capture Gen Zers鈥� attention while working with tight marketing budgets, and which programs have helped Gen Z consumers manage their finances. 鈥� In 鈥淎ctual CEO,鈥� we discuss with our guest CEO what she is currently doing to engage with Gen Zers at her credit union. Listen to the podcast with host Rob Rubin and Tansley Stearns, CEO of Community Financial Credit Union.鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we dig deep on a recently published Insider Intelligence report covering our forecasts for ad spending by US banks and credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we discuss how fewer mortgages are affecting banks' net interest income and what that means for their marketing budgets. We also examine Ally Bank鈥檚 increased ad spending. 鈥� In 鈥淔or Argument鈥檚 Sake,鈥� we talk about how large banks are doubling down on digital ad spending while smaller institutions are cutting their spending, which could lead to the eventual demise of smaller traditional banks. Tune in to the discussion with host Rob Rubin and our director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

From AI-powered smartphones to virtual shopping assistants, AI is becoming a powerful force in daily digital interactions鈥攔eshaping how people live, work, and shop.

We forecast 痴颈蝉补鈥檚 US card network transaction value will total $6.837 trillion this year, up 7% YoY. And it will help Visa maintain its momentum moving forward as it faces threats like swipe fee litigation and potential new competition from the Capital One and Discover merger.

Social buyer penetration is climbing rapidly at TikTok. In the US, the app has already outpaced Pinterest by this metric, per our forecast. By the end of 2023, it will beat Instagram and tie with Facebook.

US social ad spend growth will near 9% this year and return to double digits in 2024, per our forecast. Last year鈥檚 3.6% increase reflects a normalization after 2021鈥檚 rapid growth, as well as targeting challenges resulting from Apple鈥檚 AppTrackingTransparency framework.

Although OOH is still primarily a traditional medium, outdoor advertising鈥檚 future is digital. US DOOH ad spend will grow by double digits annually through the end of our forecast period in 2027. In the near term, DOOH is overcoming its pandemic slump.

Search ad spending in the US grew from $900 million in 2002* to $33.1 billion in 2016. Social ad spending in the US grew from $1.2 billion in 2008 to $37.3 billion in 2019. Retail media ad spending in the US grew from approximately $1.2 billion in 2016** to $31.1 billion in 2021. The comparison: Is retail media the first new type of digital advertising to skyrocket in a short period of time? No.

Gen Z spends the most time on social media. Gen Zers ages 18 to 24 spend more time on Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat than any other age group, according to our forecast. These platforms become community spaces where they interact beyond simple messaging: They share memes and new interests, video chat, and collaborate on content.

Sales growth for cosmetics and beauty will increase at more than twice the rate online than through physical retail channels this year, according to our February 2024 forecast. While ecommerce is stealing market share, its sales only tell a portion of the buying story. Physical stores are still key to discovering beauty products and brands, finding the right shades, and testing formulations鈥攁nd Walmart is making use of its omnichannel footprint to take advantage. Here鈥檚 how.

70% of US adults believe tariffs will lead to higher prices on food, electronics, and other goods, but only 26% are stocking up on items they think will cost more, according to a February 2025 survey from Ipsos.

We estimate 69.2 million US consumers used BNPL users in 2022, per our forecast. Here鈥檚 how approval rates got so high:. Providers offered more counteroffers. Instead of declining applications outright, they would condition approval on things like down payments above the typical 25%.