蘑菇AV

US consumers keep spending: Better-than-expected results from Abercrombie, Dick鈥檚 Sporting Goods, and Cava demonstrate that shoppers are willing to splurge on some nice-to-have items.

The CPG giant forecasts low-single-digit revenue growth this year, in line with the 2% YoY increase in organic revenues it reported for fiscal 2024. Consumers want value: Pepsi CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed the snack category鈥檚 sluggish performance to consumers鈥� focus on value.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss how banks are adjusting their ad spending in a world with high rates, economic turmoil, and a shift to digital advertising. 鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we dig deep on a recently published Insider Intelligence report covering our forecasts for ad spending by US banks and credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we discuss how fewer mortgages are affecting banks' net interest income and what that means for their marketing budgets. We also examine Ally Bank鈥檚 increased ad spending. 鈥� In 鈥淔or Argument鈥檚 Sake,鈥� we talk about how large banks are doubling down on digital ad spending while smaller institutions are cutting their spending, which could lead to the eventual demise of smaller traditional banks. Tune in to the discussion with host Rob Rubin and our director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we explore the problematic relationship between credit unions and Gen Z. 鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we discuss an article from PYMNTS.com that revealed only 4% of Gen Z consumers bank with credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we consider what credit unions can do to capture Gen Zers鈥� attention while working with tight marketing budgets, and which programs have helped Gen Z consumers manage their finances. 鈥� In 鈥淎ctual CEO,鈥� we discuss with our guest CEO what she is currently doing to engage with Gen Zers at her credit union. Listen to the podcast with host Rob Rubin and Tansley Stearns, CEO of Community Financial Credit Union.鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we dig deep on a recently published Insider Intelligence report covering our forecasts for ad spending by US banks and credit unions. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we discuss how fewer mortgages are affecting banks' net interest income and what that means for their marketing budgets. We also examine Ally Bank鈥檚 increased ad spending. 鈥� In 鈥淔or Argument鈥檚 Sake,鈥� we talk about how large banks are doubling down on digital ad spending while smaller institutions are cutting their spending, which could lead to the eventual demise of smaller traditional banks. Tune in to the discussion with host Rob Rubin and our director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

Social buyer penetration is climbing rapidly at TikTok. In the US, the app has already outpaced Pinterest by this metric, per our forecast. By the end of 2023, it will beat Instagram and tie with Facebook.

US social ad spend growth will near 9% this year and return to double digits in 2024, per our forecast. Last year鈥檚 3.6% increase reflects a normalization after 2021鈥檚 rapid growth, as well as targeting challenges resulting from Apple鈥檚 AppTrackingTransparency framework.

From AI-powered smartphones to virtual shopping assistants, AI is becoming a powerful force in daily digital interactions鈥攔eshaping how people live, work, and shop.

Although OOH is still primarily a traditional medium, outdoor advertising鈥檚 future is digital. US DOOH ad spend will grow by double digits annually through the end of our forecast period in 2027. In the near term, DOOH is overcoming its pandemic slump.

We forecast 痴颈蝉补鈥檚 US card network transaction value will total $6.837 trillion this year, up 7% YoY. And it will help Visa maintain its momentum moving forward as it faces threats like swipe fee litigation and potential new competition from the Capital One and Discover merger.

Search ad spending in the US grew from $900 million in 2002* to $33.1 billion in 2016. Social ad spending in the US grew from $1.2 billion in 2008 to $37.3 billion in 2019. Retail media ad spending in the US grew from approximately $1.2 billion in 2016** to $31.1 billion in 2021. The comparison: Is retail media the first new type of digital advertising to skyrocket in a short period of time? No.

Gen Z spends the most time on social media. Gen Zers ages 18 to 24 spend more time on Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat than any other age group, according to our forecast. These platforms become community spaces where they interact beyond simple messaging: They share memes and new interests, video chat, and collaborate on content.

Sales growth for cosmetics and beauty will increase at more than twice the rate online than through physical retail channels this year, according to our February 2024 forecast. While ecommerce is stealing market share, its sales only tell a portion of the buying story. Physical stores are still key to discovering beauty products and brands, finding the right shades, and testing formulations鈥攁nd Walmart is making use of its omnichannel footprint to take advantage. Here鈥檚 how.

70% of US adults believe tariffs will lead to higher prices on food, electronics, and other goods, but only 26% are stocking up on items they think will cost more, according to a February 2025 survey from Ipsos.

We estimate 69.2 million US consumers used BNPL users in 2022, per our forecast. Here鈥檚 how approval rates got so high:. Providers offered more counteroffers. Instead of declining applications outright, they would condition approval on things like down payments above the typical 25%.

This year, we forecast retail sales of cosmetic and beauty products will reach $86.42 billion, a 7.6% increase from 2022. This increase will be driven in large part by in-store sales and luxury beauty categories. But going forward, technology may play a large role in driving online sales.

By 2026, nine streaming services will generate over $1 billion in ad revenue, up from just two in 2020, according to 蘑菇AV鈥檚 forecast. To build that revenue, players across the connected TV (CTV) space are eyeing more ad dollars, which will have a significant effect on marketing budgets and consumer experiences.

Those results drove us to slightly adjust our back-to-school forecast from the 3.5% growth we expected in Q1 to 2.9%. Differing views: Two other back-to-school forecasts鈥攂oth of which are based on consumer surveys鈥攐ffer starkly different outlooks (from us and each other) for the back-to-school season.

Digital ad spend is growing and going increasingly toward programmatic formats. Search ad spend is on the rise as well, as retail media growth remains healthy. And social media is in better shape than previously projected. Here are five recent charts forecasting the future of ad spend.

滨迟鈥檚 forecasting low double-digit net revenue growth in 2025. We forecast Mastercard's US consumer card network transaction value will total $2.16 trillion in 2025, up 5.8% YoY. Our take: After enjoying a strong end to 2024, Mastercard faces some uncertainty this year regarding the Capital One-Discover deal.

US digital ad spending will surpass $452 billion by the end of 2028, per our forecast, and FMNs prime banks to capture some of that spend. That鈥檚 a compelling prize as high interest rates continue to curb banks鈥� lending profits. Click here to view our full forecast for US digital ad spending. FMNs are starting to go mainstream.

Consumers take a cautious approach to back-to-school shopping: To drive shoppers to spend, Macy鈥檚 revamped its Epic Threads brand, Kohl鈥檚 added Limited Too, and Old Navy offered cash back.