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This first-of-its-kind report compares and contrasts our US ad spending forecast with our US time spent with media forecast. It identifies unexpected incongruities between how marketers are spending ad dollars and where consumers are spending their time.

KEY STAT: Despite small spikes in even-numbered years, US TV ad spending will track negatively through 2027鈥攁nd likely thereafter. The traditional TV ad market is flickering out. From 2008 through its peak in 2018, US TV advertising was a growth story, posting YoY increases most years except during the economic upheaval that started in late 2008 and continued throughout 2009.

In fact, almost half of US agency and brand marketers who use AI or ML are leveraging it for targeting and measurement use cases, per Advertiser Perceptions. We鈥檒l see more ad tech vendors refocus their go-to-market strategy around AI as the Google-imposed deadline approaches. Here are some ideal testing grounds for AI and ML solutions:. Finding lookalike audiences without deterministic data.

KEY STAT: US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the 2023鈥�2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward digital programming. Upfront TV ad spending is trending downward. US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to $18.64 billion for the 2023鈥�2024 TV season, a downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast.

蘑菇AV 4% of US households watch TV only on mobile devices, according to the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF). This behavior is particularly prevalent among young adults and is quite common outside the US as well.

Search will account for just under two-thirds (65.8%) of US retail media ad spending in 2023 and inch down about a point per year, to 63.4% by 2025. Advertisers are eagerly spending in retail media鈥檚 off-site channels, including connected TV (CTV).

In late Q3, Paramount announced it would be cutting 15% of its US workforce鈥攁round 2,000 jobs鈥攖o save $500 million annually, reflecting challenges from declining TV viewership, rising streaming costs, and high debt amid the Skydance merger.

While retail media will generate nearly $55 billion in US ad spend this year, per our forecast, travel media will total just $2.13 billion and financial media $350 million. Here are three trends shaping the future of commerce media in travel and financial services:. 1. Airlines are monetizing captive audiences.

鈥楽tar Wars鈥� is coming back for another trilogy: Disney is likely to spend heavily, and a pipeline to streaming could bolster Disney+ revenues.

Paul, how much do advertisers spend on CTV, according to our forecasts in the US? Paul Verna:. According to our forecasts, connected TV ad spending in the US this year will be just over $25 billion, and by 2027, it will go up just over $40 billion, so a lot.

CMOs are often the first people facing pressure to cut spend in a challenging economy. Marketers need to be able to trim budgets in a way that doesn鈥檛 thin out the brand. 鈥淎 common approach we see during these economic downturns is to cut those upper-funnel tactics鈥�but I really believe this is very shortsighted,鈥� said Laura Brooks, fractional CMO at Made by Nacho, during our recent 蘑菇AV Summit.

鈥淪tranger Things鈥� finale marks the end of an era for Netflix: As its flagship series sunsets, the streamer could focus more on reality shows.

The US market may be reaching saturation, which will put pressure on international growth to maintain momentum. How we got here: Netflix鈥檚 Q3 performance highlights the company's shift toward diversifying revenue streams. Netflix's ad-supported tier now accounts for half of new memberships in available markets.

Prime Video thinks AI can fix UX problems: Complaints about show catalog failures may have spawned its latest AI-powered feature.

Fox Corp. Q3 fueled by political ads and Tubi growth: Live sports and news strategy drives gains, with digital ads growing.

30-second TV ad spot costs are falling: Football remains the costliest ad inventory, but viewer pivots to digital are bringing down costs.

First-party data takes center stage in marketing's future: As third-party cookies phase out, brands are leaning into AI and first-party data to create personalized, privacy-compliant advertising solutions.

Comcast Q3 performance fueled by streaming and live sports: Olympics and Peacock growth attract high-value audiences for advertisers.

Apple feels the pain of Apple TV+ struggles: Its Q4 revenues missed the mark in some divisions including Services, which includes advertising.

Nielsen鈥檚 dominance begins to crack: A survey shows advertisers gaining confidence in the measurement firm鈥檚 biggest competitors.

FAST viewership in the US is expected to rise steadily from 111.5 million viewers in 2024 (representing 32.6% of the population) to 125.4 million by 2028, which will account for 35.8% of the population. The Roku Channel is projected to lead the US FAST landscape with 83.4 million viewers; Tubi follows closely with 74.6 million.

Disney鈥檚 going for efficiency across the board: Ad sales will be largely automated by 2027, while content teams are streamlined behind the scenes.

If ChatGPT Plus prices rise, users could turn to cheaper AI options in an increasingly crowded market.

CEOs鈥� politics impact their brands: Hastings鈥� endorsement triggers Netflix boycott, drawing parallels with Musk's controversies impacting Tesla and X.

The US ad industry is at a crossroads. Which path it takes will depend heavily on which candidate is elected.