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Stricter oversight in the EU could also weigh heavily on Chinese ecommerce platforms鈥� bottom lines by forcing them to spend more on compliance or risk heavy fines.

Product safety issues could derail Chinese ecommerce platforms鈥� growth ambitions: Shein and Temu are struggling to keep products with high levels of toxic substances鈥攁s well as those hazardous to babies and children鈥攐ff their marketplaces.

US beauty demand is normalizing as price sensitivities creep into purchasing behavior: That鈥檚 good news for e.l.f. Beauty but an added struggle for Coty and Est茅e Lauder, for which China remains a hurdle.

With TikTok facing potential US ban uncertainties, the platform's successful shopping integration has created both challenges and opportunities in the social commerce landscape. "TikTok really showed how social commerce can work in a new way in the US," our analyst Sky Canaves said on a recent episode of 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail.鈥�

Chinese ecommerce brands like Temu and Shein are already slashing US spend. Meanwhile, Reddit and Pinterest are gaining ground, fueled by AI tools, international growth, and ecommerce integrations. Streaming platforms are proving resilient as linear TV continues its decline.

Retailers with roots in China are still gaining share of ecommerce in Western Europe, despite concerns over their sustainability credentials.

Temu, which is owned by a Chinese ecommerce giant, might be hoping for a lower profile as President Donald Trump's tariffs take shape. Temu's US marketplace sales will grow 59.0% this year, according to our May 2024 forecast, which does not include the impact of potential tariffs.

Douyin investments are helping P&G shore up China sales: It鈥檚 taking advantage of the platform鈥檚 popularity among deal-seeking shoppers to boost its brands鈥� profiles.

In 2024, retail mcommerce sales will increase 12.7% YoY compared with 8.7% for overall ecommerce. But retail mobile ad spending will increase by a slightly lower rate of 11.6%.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how TikTok Shop has changed the way people shop on social media, how the brands who sell on the platform will be impacted if TikTok goes away, and what they should be thinking about next. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Principal Analyst Sky Canaves and Vice President and Principal Analyst Jasmine Enberg.

As China鈥檚 retail media advertising market begins to mature, off-site channels鈥攊ncluding WeChat and Douyin, TikTok's sister app in China鈥攚ill increasingly drive growth.

The wallet has pushed to capture more payment volume from inbound travelers to China and Chinese travelers abroad

Although Meta and TikTok now rely on Chinese retail advertisers like Temu and Shein, their scale, performance, and huge, diverse user bases should serve them well. Smaller players that lack those strengths could struggle more. CTV will be the hardest-hit channel under the moderate and heavy tariff scenarios.

The biggest ecommerce disruptors face a reckoning: The closing of the de minimis exemption is forcing Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop to pivot, but it isn鈥檛 clear that shoppers will follow.

The funds will go toward increasing its store footprint and enhancing its ecommerce capabilities, among other things. The investment will create 5,500 jobs, per Caride鈥攁 boost for Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum as she looks for ways to mitigate tariffs鈥� impact on the economy.

At the same time, better-than-expected industrial growth shows that at least in the short term, Chinese manufacturers are finding opportunities to diversify beyond the US鈥攚hich will be vital to their survival should the trade war drag on. The diversification trend is evident when looking at both China鈥檚 export data and the actions of some of its largest ecommerce companies.

DeepSeek, a genAI chatbot that originated from China, astonished the world with its capability to match ChatGPT while costing significantly less to build and using less powerful GPUs. The launch has triggered an industry soul search that could potentially accelerate AI adoption worldwide.