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Over two-thirds (69%) of US ecommerce decision-makers plan to increase investment in social media advertising this holiday season, according to Commercetools. Nearly as many (67%) will increase investment in utilizing social media platforms altogether.

Netflix's NFL debut sets records: Despite technical hiccups, Christmas Day games drew over 24 million viewers each, boosting the platform鈥檚 sports ambitions.

The company recently secured $350 million in financing commitments, which it says will support inventory planning ahead of the critical holiday season. The company has also begun paying small and medium-sized vendors both in the US and abroad after months鈥攁nd in some cases, nearly a year鈥攐f missed payments, according to WWD.

Why this matters: Gift cards reign supreme for holiday shopping and are highly popular among Gen Zers. 39% of holiday shoppers plan to spend nearly half (48%) of their total holiday shopping budget on gift cards, per Blackhawk Network. Gen Zers drive this spend: These shoppers were expected to increase their gift card purchases by 12% on gift cards in 2024.

Retailers like Walmart are already reducing orders in areas where they believe increases are most likely to dampen demand鈥攚hich could include products like toys and apparel that are most exposed to tariffs. 80% of midsize and 64% of small toy companies canceled orders due to tariffs, according to a survey by the Toy Association, threatening availability during the holiday season.

Prime Big Deal Days spurs consumers to shop on a random Tuesday in October: Amazon鈥檚 event drives shoppers to spend, even if most aren鈥檛 buying holiday gifts.

53% of US holiday season digital sales will come from mobile this year, per Adobe Analytics data. That marks the second consecutive year mobile has accounted for more than half of holiday sales.

In this deck鈥攐ne of seven in the series鈥攚e cover our latest forecasts for holiday sales. 鈥�. This deck covers:鈥�. Our holiday ecommerce forecasts as of Q2 2025, including breakdowns by physical versus ecommerce, device, Cyber Five, and product category.鈥� This deck can help you:鈥�. Develop commerce strategy (brands and retailers)鈥�. Benchmark commerce performance (brands and retailers)鈥�.

Consumers plan to return to malls this holiday season, shop more in-person: Mall visits are expected to rise 18%, which is good news for department stores鈥攁lthough Amazon, Walmart, and Target remain top destinations.

This holiday season, retailers can stand out in the crowded ecommerce landscape by using retail media. This approach enhances the shopping experience while creating new revenue streams to offset the challenges of online shopping.

We expect social commerce sales in the US to reach $101.38 billion this year, driven by existing buyers increasing their spending. While social commerce plays a smaller role in holiday shopping, it's popular among Gen Z, who are more likely to make purchases influenced by creators. TikTok and Facebook are the top platforms, with apparel brands poised to benefit the most.

The lessons learned could have significant implications for the holiday season. Go further: Read our Back to School Forecast report.

We expect Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales to grow 5.6% this year: A strong US economy bodes well for that crucial stretch, as well as the broader holiday season.

Ecommerce sales will return to double-digit growth this holiday season amid a backdrop of healthy consumer spending.