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Zoom out: Companies ranging from Walmart to Home Depot have noted that consumers are being more discerning about where and what they buy鈥攂ehaviors that are likely to remain in place for the better part of 2024.

Category specialists (The Home Depot). Delivery services that support retailers (Instacart). Retail media鈥檚 scope is expanding as networks move further into video and CTV. While most spending is tied to performance-driven product searches on retail properties, a growing percentage consists of off-site ads.

For example, TV-maker Vizio and Home Depot recently launched the 鈥淢erry & Bright鈥� shoppable series that showcases how to use Home Depot products to decorate homes for the holidays. Consumers are responding. The number of US shoppable media buyers is expected to jump 5.7% this year to 94.2 million, according to our forecast.

Despite the word 鈥渞ecession鈥� hanging in the air, US retailers had an okay Q4 in 2022. But some recurring themes persisted: Shoppers pulled back on discretionary spending, opted against home renovations, and generally avoided high prices. Here鈥檚 a look at how those trends affected earnings.

Retailers including Walmart, Home Depot, and Albertsons have recently opened up their retail media networks to non-endemic advertisers, recognizing the way it expands revenue opportunities. The growing importance of first-party data positions retailers well to capture shifting ad dollars amid the loss of legacy identifiers.

That will likely hinder retailers鈥� long-term investments and slow retail sales, which is why retail companies across several categories鈥攊ncluding Home Depot, Walmart, Dollar General, and Steve Madden鈥攔ecently offered cautious guidance.

Behind the numbers: Target shares No. 5 with The Home Depot for No. 5 on our top 15 ecommerce list, with 1.9% of the market. Category: Best conversion driver. Winner: The Kroger Co. Why: Kroger offers the ability to search a vast menu of recipes on Kroger.com and add all the ingredients to your cart. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not new,鈥� our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian said.

The other companies cracking the top five鈥擟ostco Wholesale, The Kroger Co., and The Home Depot鈥攁ll benefit from in-store sales. As in-store retail media takes off, those businesses will be at an advantage. Use this chart:. Budget retail media ad spend. Evaluate wholesale retail strategy. Weigh in-store versus ecommerce. More like this:.

The housing market continues to flounder: As long as it remains hard for consumers to buy a home, brands and retailers tied to housing will likely struggle.

What may have worked for Amazon: By opening up the event to non-Prime members (unlike past events, the Big Spring Sale was open to everyone, but Prime members received access to exclusive deals), Amazon boosted the potential to increase sales and perhaps steal share from home improvement retailers like The Home Depot or Lowe鈥檚. Plus, exclusive deals for Prime members could have boosted sign-ups.

On the ground: A wide array of retailers, including Home Depot, Target, and Macy鈥檚, recently noted that consumers have grown increasingly price sensitive this year.

For example, Home Depot recently began paying employees to the nearest minute when they clock in and out rather than rounding workers鈥� total shift to the nearest 15 minutes.

As of last December, this age group made up between 63.4% (The Home Depot) and 83.3% (Sephora) of US in-store audiences for six major brick-and-mortar retailers analyzed by Comscore Plan Metrix Multi-Platform. In-store audiences also overindex for 18- to 49-year-olds.

Average hourly earnings rose 4.6% year-over-year (YoY) in February, as companies ranging from Kroger and Walmart to Home Depot and Lowe鈥檚 boost hourly pay to make their jobs more appealing. Why it matters: The situation makes for a challenging environment for companies seeking to deliver a positive customer experience, which is critical to customer retention.

A broad swath of retailers ranging from Home Depot and Walmart to Dollar General and Steve Madden recently offered cautious guidance for the year ahead. Consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases as they focus on buying necessities, which in the case of Target mean groceries, beauty, and household essentials.

Apparel and consumer electronics could get a boost from the back-to-school and holiday seasons. But home improvement may have a ways to go before the category rebounds.

The Home Depot: The hardware store鈥檚 revamped Orange Apron Media network also emphasizes its off-site capabilities. The new platform combines on-site and off-site campaigns and welcomes non-endemic advertisers. It also introduced a data clean room, allowing external publishers to use The Home Depot鈥檚 rich data.

Target was tied at No. 10 in 2019 and will be tied for No. 5 with The Home Depot in 2023 with a 1.9% share. But in 2024, The Home Depot鈥檚 share will drop slightly, while Target鈥檚 will remain the same. Carvana will continue to move up the ranks. Despite a brutal 2022 and rumors of bankruptcy, Carvana will remain tied with Best Buy at No. 8 in 2023.

Retail media is a collaboration between brand and retailer, Home Depot exec says. 2024 trend watch: Platform partnerships will shift the ad spending landscape. Hy-Vee鈥檚 lessons for up-and-coming retail media networks. Retail media is the fastest growing ad channel, but 鈥榠s not invincible,鈥� our analyst warns.

The company could boost sales by competing with The Home Depot and Lowe鈥檚, Lipsman said. Home and garden, outdoor furniture, and smart home tech are potential categories for a home improvement event, Lipsman said. An April grocery event: 鈥淭his year, there was a pretty heavy emphasis on the food and beverage category鈥� during Prime Day, said our analyst Blake Droesch.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss why US home improvement company Lowe's didn't work out in Canada, why Canadian athletic apparel retailer lululemon athletica succeeded in the US, and which Canadian brands would prosper in the US if they chose to fly south. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analyst Paul Briggs and vice president of content Suzy Davidkhanian.

Their sales were up like 7%, but HomeGoods, home fashions business, saw sales decline 7%. It is very much in line with this overarching trend that we've seen. Sara Lebow:. Is HomeGoods in line with a Wayfair, a Home Depot, a Lowe's, or not so much since it's more home decor rather than home furniture? Zak Stambor:. It's all of a piece.

Amazon鈥檚 new shopping event goes head-to-head with similar Lowe鈥檚 and Home Depot promotions, which align with their busiest season for home improvement and furnishing sales. Prime Days have been huge in driving retail media ad spend, and its Big Spring Sale will be no different.

Visits to consumer electronics and home improvement stores have been down the past couple of months. But Best Buy, The Home Depot, and Lowe鈥檚 are not weak brands. Chernofsky anticipates strong rebounds come the end of this year. Chernofsky is also bullish on what he calls 鈥減reviously strong鈥� retailers, like Old Navy, which he thinks can bounce back from inflation and supply chain issues.

The Home Depot became the first Walmart GoLocal customer. The platform has grown to offer delivery from 10,000 retail locations and completed over 3.5 million deliveries in FY 2023. Earlier this year, Walmart partnered with Salesforce to offer Salesforce customers access to Walmart鈥檚 delivery and fulfillment services, expanding its network of retail partners.