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On today's podcast episode, we discuss the takeaway's from this years March Madness NCAA basketball tournaments, what's most fueling a revolution in women's sports, who will rule the new pay TV world by 2026, the likelihood that sports betting faces a reckoning in the next 12-months, the best-selling cars in America, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, forecasting analyst Zach Goldner, and director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

Viewership of children鈥檚 cable programming declined significantly in the past decade. Nickelodeon, Disney Channel, and Cartoon Network lost more than half of their total viewership between 2016 and 2023, according to Nielsen.

Charter Spectrum now offers $65 worth of streaming services: While easy access to alternatives could accelerate churn, pay TV has little choice.

DirecTV bends the knee to Disney: After a major blackout, the pay TV provider is offering a path to join Disney+ and Hulu.

DirecTV and Dish Network attempt to claw back linear TV鈥檚 power: A proposed merger would create a pay TV giant that could help it in carriage negotiations.

DirecTV signals a broader pay TV battle with Disney: The company filed an FCC complaint against Disney for anticompetitive practices regarding carriage fees.

This year, more than three-fourths of traditional pay TV viewers will watch live sports monthly. In 2020, less than two-thirds of traditional pay TV viewers watched live sports. In other words, sports fans are more reluctant to cut the cord than other TV viewers. Heavy sports watchers are abundant in the cohort that鈥檚 still paying for cable TV.

Charter Spectrum will offer Max to its customers: A carriage deal with Waner Bros. Discovery continues the trend of streamers winning out in pay TV negotiations.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how all the different TV terms fit together, to what degree subscription revenues are moving from pay TV to streaming, who's winning the "digital pay TV" race, and how the new sports streaming service from Fox, ESPN, and Warner Bros. Discovery could change everything. "In Other News," we talk about what a new sponsor logo placement from the WWE will look like and how the US ad market is getting on to start the year. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Ross Benes.

All the metrics we track for connected TV (CTV) are climbing, including time spent, ad dollars, and users. All this is happening as linear viewership declines, and for the first time, non-pay TV viewers have surpassed pay TV this year, according to our forecast. Here鈥檚 what advertisers need to know to keep up with this shifting landscape.

Sunday Ticket propels YouTube TV to 48% growth: The pay TV service has seen subscriptions jump significantly since it acquired the costly streaming rights.

All eyes are on streaming. Last year, non-pay TV viewers surpassed traditional pay TV viewers in the US, per our forecast. Years of streaming platform proliferation are over, yielding to consolidation and fragmented ad measurement. Bundles between streaming platforms and partnerships with retail media platforms are forming, leaving media buyers with a headache over how to strategize.

In the US, 77% of TV-owning households had a smart TV as of Q1 2023, according to Hub Research. Connected TVs, which include smart TVs, streaming sticks, and other devices, will be used in 115.1 million households next year, more than double the number of traditional pay TV households, according to our forecast.

The news: As budgets tighten, consumers are altering their streaming habits, per Hub Research鈥檚 annual Monetizing Video report. While the average user is unwilling to pay much more than they鈥檙e already paying for streaming subscriptions, 42% say they are much more likely to maintain bundled subscriptions compared with individual streaming subscriptions. Our take: Advertisers must pay attention to platforms that offer bundle packages as key areas for investment due to their lower churn. Bundles consolidate audience attention and offer more predictable engagement.

Netflix, Disney, and Amazon lead relief efforts for wildfire victims: Corporate and celebrity donations underscore the intersection of disaster response and cause marketing.

The news: Fox is teaming up with ESPN to bundle their upcoming sports streaming services, per Deadline. The bundle will focus on Fox One and ESPN and marks the first major sports rights package, though programming from Fox鈥檚 broadcast network and its local stations will also be available. Our take: An ESPN and Fox bundle will undoubtedly unlock major advertising opportunities for the channels as advertisers turn to sports as a key driver of revenues.

The average cost of streaming subscriptions jumped 22.2% YoY in 2023, far outpacing both pay TV increases (4.8%) and inflation (3.6%), per our analysis; In 2024, streaming subscriptions increased 12.6%, again outpacing both other measures, though less dramatically.

Under Google鈥檚 stewardship since its 2006 acquisition, it has expanded into all things video: YouTube鈥檚 portfolio now includes digital pay TV via YouTube TV, ad-free subscriptions, music streaming, short-form video, and an expansive creator economy that attracts more than half of US marketers.

DirecTV and Dish challenge the Disney-Fubo merger: Legal fight over Venu Sports launch highlights antitrust concerns in sports streaming.

Consolidation will also allow Disney to capture a larger share of the digital pay TV market. The deal will allow Fubo to package all of Disney鈥檚 broadcast and sports networks into its service, giving it access to popular content from ABC, ESPN, and more. We expect US digital pay TV households to steadily increase over the next few years, from 20.3 million in 2025 to 22.2 million in 2028.

Disney will attract major attention at Upfronts: Ad-supported subscribers surpassed 157 million, giving it a leg up over the competition.

The news: Paramount struck a $7.7 billion, 7-year agreement with UFC in its first big move after closing its merger with Skydance. The deal will see all 43 live annual UFC events streamed exclusively in the US on Paramount+, while select UFC events will be simultaneously aired on CBS. Our take: With its UFC deal, Paramount is taking the first step toward regaining audience share and ad spend post-Skydance merger, banking on live sports鈥� steady draw for viewers and marketers.

Venu鈥檚 first major challenge came when pay TV company Fubo sued to block the service, citing antitrust concerns. An August court injunction and October court date prevented Venu from launching ahead of the 2024-2025 NFL season, a crucial window to attract subscribers.

Amazon is ending its Prime Invitee program, which allowed members to share benefits outside of their households. The program will officially end on October 1. Amazon is relying on a tried-and-true tactic to boost memberships. While the retailer has several irons in the fire, including investments in rural delivery and grocery that it expects will increase Prime鈥檚 stickiness, it will take time for those initiatives to bear fruit. But an immediate account-sharing crackdown pays off right away.