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After strong growth, digital audio subscriber numbers will slow. And a handful of companies will shape what US digital audio users will listen to—and how they will listen—in the coming years.

It's also Netflix and basically every other subscription video service is really feeling the fact that they need to increase revenues. Just adding new users isn't cutting it anymore. If the news was Disney loses 11 million subscribers in Q2, but average revenues per user are up like 50%, I don't think this would be viewed as bad news, really. It would be more mixed, or maybe even positive.

Whether free, like YouTube, or paid, like sub OTT (a term we use interchangeably with SVOD—subscription video-on-demand), all trends are still pointing in the right direction. However, growth is nowhere close to what it once was. A multidecade slog toward domination awaits. YouTube is already everywhere, and now some advanced economies are approaching sub OTT saturation as well.

However, subscriber growth figures will be low from now on, as subscription cost fatigue is hitting digital audio the same way it’s hitting OTT video streaming services. Click here to view our full forecast for US paid digital audio subscribers. Spotify has the most paying subscribers, and Apple scores highly by default.

Our September 2023 forecast shows 72.3% of subscription OTT video viewers will watch Prime Video in 2024, while 76.7% will watch Netflix. That puts Amazon on par with Netflix in terms of viewership. 3. Amazon has a wealth of retail media data. Amazon accounts for 74.2% of all US retail media ad spend, according to our November 2023 forecast.

Netflix provided its last subscriber outlook for the foreseeable future. What to look for in Q1 2023:. Our updated time spent forecasts for TV and streaming. Netflix Added Subscribers Ahead of Its Advertising Pivot. After posting subscriber losses in two consecutive quarters, Netflix added 2.4 million global subscribers in Q3 2022.

So it's SVOD? Ross Benes:. Subscription OTT, SVOD. Basically, there's many acronyms in this space, unfortunately. Marcus Johnson:. Yeah. Okay. So it's on that side of the bracket, if you will. It's on the streaming side, under streaming AVOD and SVOD, and under SVOD, you've got the ad-supported and the ad-free.

So the graphic includes paid SVODs, free and supported streaming TV services, called FASTS for short, and vMVPDs, which is a heinous acronym, but it's also known as streaming TV services. When you rank them by total viewers in the US, all of those different types of services, the top seven are SVODs, led by Netflix, Prime Video, and Hulu, each with about 120 to 170 million users.

In July, The Information reported that Netflix signed up 1.5 million US subscribers to its ad tier. In August, Adweek reported Netflix’s ad tier had over 10 million global users. Adweek’s figure was much larger because it was global and based on users, not subscribers. Subscriber figures are lower than user figures because numerous users can utilize one subscription.

MrBeast (247 million subscribers). Cocomelon - Nursery Rhymes (173 million subscribers). Kids Diana Show (120 million subscribers). Vlad and Niki (114 million subscribers). Like Nastya (114 million subscribers). 2. Netflix. Netflix will be used by 61.4% of US digital video viewers under 12 this year, per our February 2024 forecast. That puts it well behind YouTube in terms of reach. 3. Disney+.

Despite increasing competition from the likes of Disney+—and its ad-supported tier, launched in December 2022—Netflix remains a force to be reckoned with as Latin America’s most popular subscription video service. This year, we estimate that 79.4% of subscription OTT viewers in Latin America, or 142.9 million people, will watch Netflix at least once per month.

In 2023, 25% of US subscription video-on-demand services will be ad-supported, per Antenna research. Ad-supported sign-ups are catching on at varying rates, Antenna found. Over 80% of Netflix’s new subscription sign-ups in 2023, for example, will be for ad-free plans, while 69% of Peacock sign-ups will be ad-supported.

More subscribers equals more revenues. We project that Spotify Premium will boast 53.3 million paid US subscribers this year. By contrast, YouTube Premium (which includes YouTube Music Premium) will have 40.5 million, Apple Music will have 39.9 million, and Pandora will have 6.3 million.

Comcast-owned Peacock built its user base partly by allowing Xfinity subscribers free access to the service. However, in keeping with many streaming services’ focus on profitability over subscriber growth, Peacock will shut off this option in June 2023, leading to a slight reduction in viewers. We may have seen the last of peak TV—for now.

With debt mounting and subscriber additions slowing, streaming services will focus more on revenues than market share. Financial stability will take precedence over spending wars aimed at attracting viewers. Cost cutting is in vogue. Warner Bros. Discovery wants to cut debt.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss what was behind the streaming giants staggering subscriber growth, how Prime Video's new ad-tier will affect Netflix, and how a deal with the WWE changes its sports strategy. "In Other News," we talk about an important milestone for ad-supported video streaming. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Daniel Konstantinovic.

This includes the myriad forms of internet-based content delivery, such as subscription video-on-demand (SVOD), FAST, and AVOD, consumed on smartphones, tablets, or connected devices (like smart TVs and streaming sticks). Smartphones are the dominant digital video viewing device.

It pointed out that the growth rate for premium SVOD, subscription video on demand services, fell from 2022 to 2023, going from 22% to 10% growth rate of premium SVOD services. But is the streaming boom officially over? Ross is going to be arguing the video streaming boom is officially over. One minute on the clock, make the case. Ross Benes:.

Reaching these audiences has proved challenging for advertisers, especially with the dominance of subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services like Netflix. But recent developments in Canada’s ad market are presenting new opportunities for media buyers and brand marketers. Ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) is now reaching critical mass in Canada.

Q2 isn't normally a bountiful quarter for Netflix, subscriber wise. The company hasn't seen this kind of worldwide growth in a Q2 since a flood of signups back in Q2 2020, when the pandemic kept everyone inside. And in North America, adding over a million subscribers is not normal either.

I think the biggest surprise is it might look a lot like traditional linear TV, so looking beyond just these SVOD platforms, you've got to consider fast as well. Free ad supporting streaming TV, we project that there'll be 150 million fast viewers in the US in 2027. These channels carry ads. You've got the ad tiers on the SVOD platforms of course. You've got sports rights being sold to these players.

Karlene Lukovitz though of MediaPost was saying, according to an Aluma survey, household spending about $43 a month on SVODs, that's up a lot from 2020. But saying that the share of SVOD buyers who are open to spending more is down. So, we're starting to reach that ceiling in terms of ... at least according to this, in terms of how much people are willing to pay.

Subscription fatigue in some regions is real, but the subscription OTT industry still has plenty of room to grow in other markets. Read on for our latest forecasts.

And now you have streaming becoming more like linear with so many of these SVOD services having live programming that comes from their affiliated broadcast like watching live NBC or CBS content on Peacock and Paramount Plus. Marcus Johnson:. Mm-hmm. Story two.

We used to have AVOD, advertising video on demand, and SVOD, subscription video on demand, and now there's just hybrid video on demand. I think Peter Newman was saying that Apple is the last holdout in terms of putting ads on its platform. So yeah, I think the blurring of the lines across, it seems, every single space is a really good one. Rahul, how about you? What's one bonus trend for 2023?