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The majority of US ecommerce sales will come from mobile devices by 2028. In anticipation of this shift, brands and retailers must address any lingering inefficiencies in the mobile shopping experience they provide. They can do this by optimizing their customer acquisition, user experience (UX), and loyalty strategies.

Ecommerce growth accelerated during the 2023 holiday season as US consumers shifted more of their shopping to mobile devices.

Although the Cyber Five will hit record ecommerce sales in the US this year at $41.43 billion, the retail event鈥檚 share of total retail ecommerce holiday season sales will continue to shrink, per our July 2024 forecast.

Returns will pass the trillion dollar mark this year, with US ecommerce returns growth outpacing sales growth, per our forecast. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for retailers and brands to look at their returns, because those ultimately eat into their margins,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves.

Retail ended 2024 on a high note as mobile shopping drove ecommerce sales and stores staged a comeback. Will the 2025 holiday season be as fruitful?

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.鈥�

US ecommerce sales rose 8.7% YoY to a record $241.1 billion, per Adobe鈥攏ot far off our projection of 9.0% ecommerce growth. Total holiday retail sales between November 1 and December 24 increased 3.8% YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse data. Excluding autos, in-store sales rose 2.9% YoY, compared with a more robust 6.7% jump in ecommerce sales. We expected holiday sales to grow 4.3% last year.

Marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce as new players with roots in China vie for prominence.

US retail and ecommerce sales forecasts for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season. Learnings from the 2024 back-to-school season. Data and insights to help brands, retailers, and marketers fine-tune 2025 back-to-school plans. This deck can help you develop commerce strategy and allocate budget for campaigns (retailers and brands).

Amazon Prime is deeply entrenched in the US, with 75% of households as members. Despite this saturation, Amazon sees growth opportunities in international markets and among underpenetrated US demographics: rural, younger, and lower-income consumers. These groups show untapped potential, said Jamil Ghani, Amazon Prime鈥檚 worldwide VP. Prime fuels Amazon鈥檚 ecosystem鈥攎embers spend more by using benefits like streaming, pharmacy, Grubhub+, and free shipping. In contrast, nonmembers often spend less over time. By expanding perks and appealing to new segments, Amazon uses Prime to drive loyalty, customer lifetime value, and resilience against macroeconomic shifts.

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.