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We have upped our social user forecast since our last revision in December 2022. And next year, there will be nearly the same number of social users in the US as there are TV viewers, a historic audience shift. If there鈥檚 any medium that鈥檚 鈥渄ying,鈥� it鈥檚 linear TV.

Search is already a major component of retail media; social is the next integration. Advertisers still view social media as a discovery medium and retail media as a conversion-driver. But both platforms are 鈥減otentially full-funnel,鈥� according to Liz Cole, executive director and US head of social at VMLY&R, speaking at our 鈥淎ttention!鈥� summit.

The old form of social networking may be dying. But our forecast shows people spend more time on social platforms, so marketers need to be aware of what the new era of social media looks like. Gen Z and TikTok certainly dominate social media headlines, but Meta maintains a stronghold, even as it struggles to make new endeavors like Threads take off.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss why TikTok might not actually be a social media platform, how much young people use it to search for things, and whether TikTok Shop is ruining TikTok. "In Other News," we talk about the battle between Threads and X (formerly Twitter), as well as whether Snap distancing itself from social media will work and start a trend. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Jasmine Enberg and director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman.

TikTok aggressively courts sellers: The company aims to grow its social commerce sales by offering merchants free listings and shipping, along with zero commissions.

Just as Facebook became the platform that defined millennials鈥� social media experience, TikTok is cruising toward a similar status for Gen Z鈥攂ut it鈥檚 taking a different route.

In Meta鈥檚 most recent earnings call, Zuckerberg said WhatsApp鈥檚 number of daily active users and message sends in the US 鈥渒eeps gaining momentum.鈥� We expect WhatsApp to have 67.6 million US users in 2024, up 2.1% YoY. Read the full report, Organic Social Strategies That Work.

Social commerce sales will reach $107.17 billion by 2025: While Facebook and Instagram will still attract the most buyers, it鈥檚 TikTok that鈥檚 making the most aggressive moves.

Some 65% of TikTokers prefer content from brands that feature original sounds, according to 2021 MRC Data. TikTok sounds allow users to attach posts to songs and other audio which can then drive an association between the song and the brand. TikTok already has a Commercial Music Library of royalty-free tracks, but brands can push social campaigns a step further by creating their own viral songs.

TikTok is extending its video content to an array of public screens, including those at airports, gas stations, and movie rental machines. The expansion into out-of-home (OOH) advertising marks TikTok鈥檚 ambitions to go beyond its roots as a mobile app.

Key stat: Nearly 60% of TikTok viewers are more likely to trust a brand after hearing about it from a creator compared with hearing about it from a standard, in-feed ad, said Sam Kimmel, global creator partnerships lead at TikTok, during a CreatorIQ webinar.

More than half of respondents said they use social platforms for messaging, making it one of the most popular activities. When it comes to Instagram and TikTok, however, the former has a more mature offering that鈥檚 been around longer, giving it a firm lead for now.

TikTok has rolled out a new payment structure鈥攖he Creator Rewards Program鈥攚hich factors in how well content aligns with search trends. Over time, this will reinforce consumer search behaviors, which should, in turn, dictate paid marketing strategies. Read the full report, Social Search Trends 2024.

And then when we think about in particular within the demographic makeup of that US Hispanic population with about 60% of Hispanics being of Mexican origin, and we look at say that TikTok usage or that over indexing a bit on TikTok, that harks back to the fact that in Mexico, TikTok is now the number two platform per social media usage there ahead of Instagram.

Gen Z spends the most time on social media. Gen Zers ages 18 to 24 spend more time on Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat than any other age group, according to our forecast. These platforms become community spaces where they interact beyond simple messaging: They share memes and new interests, video chat, and collaborate on content.

Now 23% of these young consumers use it almost exclusively, according to an online HarrisPoll of 2,118 US and UK adults in 2023. What 鈥渃ash stuffing鈥� entails: Gen Zers are withdrawing large amounts of cash and budgeting by putting it into envelopes, according to Newsweek. The envelopes are organized and labeled as specific "buckets" for various expenditures.

Next year, US search ad spend will reach $127.84 billion, growing 12.4% YoY, per our forecast. Search will account for 41.6% of overall US digital ad spending in 2024. The cost of getting retail media search right: The increase of retail media ad inventory shouldn鈥檛 clutter or detract from the shopping experience.

鈥淟ittle treat鈥� culture has taken over TikTok. The hashtag #littletreat has amassed 41.4 million views, and video after video shows users justifying their small purchases because they 鈥渄eserve a little treat.鈥� But little treats can add up. So Gen Z and millennial consumers are using rewards apps to pay for their little luxuries, according to Wes Schroll, CEO of the rewards app Fetch.

For Gen Z beauty shoppers, however, TikTok was overwhelmingly the top platform; Gen Zers were nearly seven times more likely to discover beauty products on TikTok than on Facebook. And that makes sense, said Elizabeth Marsten, vice president of commerce strategic services at Tinuiti. 鈥淲hen we鈥檙e talking about beauty, you want to see it in action.

Gen Z and millennials shift to social media: Both cohorts prefer TikTok and Instagram over traditional search engines.

But as it鈥檚 a major part of TikTok Shop鈥檚 ecommerce push in the US, the channel may start to gain adoption in the year ahead. Use this chart:. Identify where worldwide shoppers are finding products and where they are buying them across social and digital channels. More like this:. What鈥檚 happening with TikTok Shop? The opportunity, the advantage, and the drawbacks.

If TikTok gets banned (and it鈥檚 a very big 鈥渋f鈥�), advertisers need to know where consumers will go. Instagram and YouTube would be likely beneficiaries, but OTT TV like Netflix could also see gains. Advertisers may even branch out to other categories entirely, like retail media. Here are five charts showing what could happen.