蘑菇AV

The insight: Both Alibaba and JD.com are expanding their ecommerce capabilities as they look to capture more spending from cautious Chinese consumers and defend their businesses from growing competition. Alibaba introduced an 鈥渋nstant commerce鈥� feature to Taobao in late April that will deliver 蝉丑辞辫辫别谤蝉鈥� orders in under an hour.

China鈥檚 deflation problem reveals flaws in its trade war strategy: Beijing鈥檚 bid to offset tariffs with domestic consumption are hampered by consumers鈥� reluctance to spend.

Cross-border buyer numbers are rising in Europe as shoppers seek value and variety鈥攂ut consumer expectations and regulatory changes could challenge future growth.

The brand has also been hit hard by weakness in China and travel retail sector, as well as trade-down behavior from US consumers. Our take: Beauty brands have been understandably eager to capitalize on fierce demand from younger consumers.

New tariffs and policy uncertainty are raising prices, stalling guidance, and pushing shoppers toward discount channels, especially in ecommerce and essential goods. Tech companies face rising regulatory and tariff pressure.

Chinese consumers鈥� travel spending softened during a recent holiday: That鈥檚 a clear sign that confidence is strained due to trade tensions with the US.

Some shoppers will scale back spending altogether, while others will seek savings by turning to discount retailers, private labels, or secondhand sellers. We forecast back-to-school sales will rise 3.0% this year, a slowdown from 3.3% growth in 2024. Retail ecommerce back-to-school sales are set to increase 6.8%, a deceleration from last year鈥檚 7.4% gain.

While the retailer is taking steps to diversify sourcing, one-fifth of its total inventory in 2024 originated in China鈥攊ncluding 27% of its private-label products. Macy鈥檚 expects the duties to deliver a hit of 20 to 40 basis points to its gross margin鈥攚hich includes the cost of inventory brought in when China tariffs were at 145%.

In our first edition of the Global Digital Index, created in partnership with the RLC Global Forum, we explore retail and ecommerce in the Gulf States of the Middle East.

The insight: The gap between Target and its mass merchant competitors Amazon and Walmart is widening. While Amazon and Walmart are consolidating their grip on consumer spending after investments in value and convenience, Target鈥檚 largely discretionary assortment and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) controversies are sharply curbing its appeal. Our take: Shoppers are prioritizing necessities over discretionary goods and favoring retailers that offer value and convenience.

What retail and ecommerce categories are most exposed to current and proposed tariffs? Most retail sectors will be affected by increased tariffs, but some are more exposed than others, including the following:. Apparel and fashion. In 2024, the EU exported over 鈧�5.0 billion ($5.41 billion) worth of apparel and accessories to the US.

RH is also hard at work reducing its exposure to China tariffs: It expects just 2% of Q4 inventory receipts to originate from the country, down from 16% in Q1, and is shifting more manufacturing to factories in North Carolina and Italy. Our take: With the sluggish housing market showing few signs of improvement, retailers must lean into any pockets of opportunity they find.

Tariff pressure on China-made goods. Production delays, including the postponed NikeSKIMS launch. Margin erosion from its reliance on discounts to offload inventory from its retro lines. Weakening demand in China, which was once a critical growth engine. Our take: Turning around a company the size of Nike is like trying to turn around an ocean liner in rough waters.

Tariff challenges: While the consoles are in many consumers鈥� hands, Nintendo briefly hit pause on US preorders after President Donald Trump ordered 30% tariffs on China, where a substantial amount of its manufacturing is done. The company also left the door open for tariff-led price hikes鈥攖he Switch 2 currently costs $449.

Our take: Higher prices will make it harder for Best Buy to win over wary shoppers, who are highly deal-focused and uninclined to make big-ticket purchases.

India鈥檚 commerce landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, fueled by booming ecommerce, rising mobile shopping, and the growing influence of social media.

The news: Starbucks is lowering prices in China for some drinks as the country鈥檚 relentless price wars force the struggling coffee chain to shift gears. Our take: Starbucks鈥� pricing actions are necessary to keep it competitive in a challenging market. But it is increasingly struggling to keep up with the likes of Luckin Coffee and Cotti, which are not only considerably cheaper but also better able to meet Chinese consumers鈥� rapidly shifting tastes. With conditions in the world鈥檚 second-largest economy unlikely to improve this year, Starbucks will have to find a way to become nimbler鈥攁nd more affordable鈥攖o keep within striking distance of its rivals.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth鈥攏amely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs鈥攁re no longer in place.