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In the short term, retailers like Costco are rushing to import goods, driving up shipping costs. It cost about $6,000 to book a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast on January 1, a 50% jump from December, per Xeneta data cited by Bloomberg. While some merchants might absorb those costs, many will likely pass them on to consumers, driving up prices.

鈥淵ou can go to the Costco Subreddit and hear about people's experiences, ask questions, and get very direct feedback,鈥� she said. Like shoppers of every cohort, high-income consumers frequently turn to Amazon for not only value but also convenience, Canaves said.

A slew of nontraditional entrants and established healthcare players鈥攆rom Amazon to Eli Lilly and Company, Costco, and Dexcom鈥攚ant to reach more consumers by making it fast and easy to purchase prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services online. Creating a patient experience that鈥檚 personalized, frictionless, and affordable will be key factors that separate winners from losers.

And I think I cannot mention this or make this point without mentioning Costco because high-income shoppers love Costco. I mean, who doesn't love Costco? (04:51):. We talked about this a little bit in the pre-show discussion.

What I think is going to happen is that they're going to file for bankruptcy and then a big box retailer, especially a one category one like a Home Depot or someone like a Costco that's not really strong and party supplies is going to either partner with them or outright purchase them.

The rest of the market is served by Canadian subsidiaries of large international retailers like Walmart and Costco, as well as a host of Canada-based specialty retailers. To see the full forecast, click here. Amazon鈥檚 ecommerce share in Canada ranks No. 2 among the countries we forecast. The company鈥檚 ecommerce share in the US is lower, at 37.6% this year.

We just put Maxine on the back of, our friend has an account called Old Jewish Men, and we just put Maxine on this old Jewish man's back, and he sat in a Costco eating a hot dog. And people don't know that there's a part of that that's like it's sponcon. It's all meant to be that way.

But several retailers will find themselves in new positions within the top 15, including Target, The Home Depot, Costco Wholesale, Carvana, Best Buy, Lowe鈥檚, and Wayfair. Key Question: Which US companies will see the most ecommerce growth over the next two years?

Costco reported $78.94 billion in total revenues for its fiscal Q4 ending in September up 9.4% YoY, driven by groceries and household essentials, while demand for discretionary items declined. 鈥淧eople are going to Costco, they鈥檙e filling up their cars with Costco gas, they鈥檙e buying groceries, but they鈥檙e not buying the TV. They鈥檙e not buying the jewelry. They鈥檙e not buying AirPods.

After Costco, Heckova! went back to the data to determine where to go next. 鈥淲hen we think of crossovers, we know our customers are shoppers at Costco. And where else do they look? They go to Target,鈥� said Pawlowski. 鈥淎s the rotation ended at Costco, we had a whole new community of consumers saying 鈥淗ey, I like this product. And we heard from a number of them saying that [Heckova!]

Costco launches its retail media network. The membership-based retailer already has a robust sampling program. Layering ad dollars on top of that is a smart revenue driver for Costco. In-store retail media is still in its infancy, accounting for only 0.7% of US omnichannel retail media spend this year, according to our March 2024 forecast.

Both Target and Costco are testing larger-format stores with more ecommerce fulfillment space as they look to bolster their delivery capabilities and save money. Target鈥檚 Stores as Hubs strategy allowed the retailer to cut costs by 40% compared with fulfillment from traditional distribution centers.

Amazon will continue to gain market share, but new competition from Temu, Walmart, and other retailers could stunt future dominance.

This puts it leagues ahead of closest rival Costco, whose share will be just 9.5%. Walmart-owned Sam鈥檚 Club and Walmart+ will account for 5.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Beyond the chart: As much as Walmart wants to be an alternative to Amazon, it isn鈥檛 there. Walmart+鈥檚 deals and media offerings can鈥檛 compete with Prime鈥檚 selection, speed, and shows.

A significant share also pays for membership clubs, including 28.1% who belong to Sam鈥檚 Club, and 24.9% who belong to Costco. Only 2.3% pay for Shipt, which offers free grocery deliveries on orders of at least $35, as well as free delivery from Target, Petco, Walgreens, and other national chains.

The other companies cracking the top five鈥�Costco Wholesale, The Kroger Co., and The Home Depot鈥攁ll benefit from in-store sales. As in-store retail media takes off, those businesses will be at an advantage. Use this chart:. Budget retail media ad spend. Evaluate wholesale retail strategy. Weigh in-store versus ecommerce. More like this:.

However, over the long term it needs to find ways to improve the experience it delivers to shoppers to avoid losing sales to mass merchants like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco.

Number two, Costco for That's right. Launching a retAIl media network. This is huge for those of us who have repeatedly sat in meetings with our retAIl team asking why Costco doesn't yet have a retAIl media network. They have one now it's launching, and I think that's a pretty big deal. Suzy Davidkhanian (10:14):.

Store of the future: While the checkout-free experience is so far limited to a single Sam鈥檚 Club store located in Grapevine, Texas, it speaks to the retailer鈥檚 broader ambitions to compete more effectively against Costco and Amazon, as well as show off its tech capabilities.

Its share of recent digital grocery buyers is similar to Instacart鈥檚 and larger than those of leading US grocery chains like Costco Wholesale and The Kroger Co. Amazon Fresh also has a larger online audience than Whole Foods Market. The most popular method of ordering grocery products from Amazon is via the core Amazon site, using ship-to-home fulfillment.

For example, both Target and Costco are testing supersized stores that dedicate large spaces for ecommerce fulfillment. The big takeaway: Instacart has two key strengths: its exclusive agreements with grocers and its high-margin advertising business. As its agreements expire, grocers could shift to another provider or work with multiple partners.

Not many retailers are explicitly leaning into community buying, but it鈥檚 not unlikely we鈥檒l see wholesale retailers like Costco or Sam鈥檚 Club incorporate that messaging into their marketing strategies. This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

That鈥檚 nearly as many as the proportion who pay for a Costco membership (27%), and nearly three times the number who subscribe to Instacart+ (9%). Importantly, subscribers are sticking around: Annualized retention reached its highest level in the first half of the year since the program鈥檚 inception, a spokeswoman told The Journal.