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Amazon will continue to gain market share, but new competition from Temu, Walmart, and other retailers could stunt future dominance.

Store of the future: While the checkout-free experience is so far limited to a single Sam鈥檚 Club store located in Grapevine, Texas, it speaks to the retailer鈥檚 broader ambitions to compete more effectively against Costco and Amazon, as well as show off its tech capabilities.

Black Friday in October: Amazon鈥檚 sale has driven retailers such as Best Buy, Costco, Target, Walmart to launch their own October events that, in some cases, coincide with Prime Big Deal Days. Consumers have taken note: 33% of Numerator respondents shopped or planned to shop Walmart Holiday Deals, and 31% shopped or planned to shop Target Circle Week.

At least 65.1% of respondents to our ecommerce survey have a subscription to the retail giant, followed by Sam鈥檚 Club and Costco, which hover between 19.5% and 32.9% across age and gender. In contrast, Walmart+, DoorDash DashPass, and Instacart+ are popular primarily among consumers ages 18 to 34 and male subscribers, likely owing to convenience, affordability, and availability.

Behind it were 鈥嬧�婬ilton Honors American Express Card and Costco Anywhere Visa by Citi. Our take: Issuers must market options that appeal to both segments of their bifurcated customer base鈥攖he half that feels financially stressed and the half that doesn鈥檛. Flat customer satisfaction scores on credit cards overall suggest most consumers aren鈥檛 actively shopping around for a replacement.

The rest of the market is served by Canadian subsidiaries of large international retailers like Walmart and Costco, as well as a host of Canada-based specialty retailers. To see the full forecast, click here. Amazon鈥檚 ecommerce share in Canada ranks No. 2 among the countries we forecast. The company鈥檚 ecommerce share in the US is lower, at 37.6% this year.

But several retailers will find themselves in new positions within the top 15, including Target, The Home Depot, Costco Wholesale, Carvana, Best Buy, Lowe鈥檚, and Wayfair. Key Question: Which US companies will see the most ecommerce growth over the next two years?

Costco reported $78.94 billion in total revenues for its fiscal Q4 ending in September up 9.4% YoY, driven by groceries and household essentials, while demand for discretionary items declined. 鈥淧eople are going to Costco, they鈥檙e filling up their cars with Costco gas, they鈥檙e buying groceries, but they鈥檙e not buying the TV. They鈥檙e not buying the jewelry. They鈥檙e not buying AirPods.

After Costco, Heckova! went back to the data to determine where to go next. 鈥淲hen we think of crossovers, we know our customers are shoppers at Costco. And where else do they look? They go to Target,鈥� said Pawlowski. 鈥淎s the rotation ended at Costco, we had a whole new community of consumers saying 鈥淗ey, I like this product. And we heard from a number of them saying that [Heckova!]

Costco launches its retail media network. The membership-based retailer already has a robust sampling program. Layering ad dollars on top of that is a smart revenue driver for Costco. In-store retail media is still in its infancy, accounting for only 0.7% of US omnichannel retail media spend this year, according to our March 2024 forecast.

That鈥檚 nearly as many as the proportion who pay for a Costco membership (27%), and nearly three times the number who subscribe to Instacart+ (9%). Importantly, subscribers are sticking around: Annualized retention reached its highest level in the first half of the year since the program鈥檚 inception, a spokeswoman told The Journal.

Costco members now have access to online marketplace Sesame鈥檚 network of thousands of doctors offering virtual and in-person care, as well as lab and imaging centers. Walgreens recently debuted a D2C telehealth service in which patients can communicate with doctors and nurse practitioners about non-emergent health concerns over text or video. Predictions.

Its share of recent digital grocery buyers is similar to Instacart鈥檚 and larger than those of leading US grocery chains like Costco Wholesale and The Kroger Co. Amazon Fresh also has a larger online audience than Whole Foods Market. The most popular method of ordering grocery products from Amazon is via the core Amazon site, using ship-to-home fulfillment.

Both Target and Costco are testing larger-format stores with more ecommerce fulfillment space as they look to bolster their delivery capabilities and save money. Target鈥檚 Stores as Hubs strategy allowed the retailer to cut costs by 40% compared with fulfillment from traditional distribution centers.

This puts it leagues ahead of closest rival Costco, whose share will be just 9.5%. Walmart-owned Sam鈥檚 Club and Walmart+ will account for 5.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Beyond the chart: As much as Walmart wants to be an alternative to Amazon, it isn鈥檛 there. Walmart+鈥檚 deals and media offerings can鈥檛 compete with Prime鈥檚 selection, speed, and shows.

A significant share also pays for membership clubs, including 28.1% who belong to Sam鈥檚 Club, and 24.9% who belong to Costco. Only 2.3% pay for Shipt, which offers free grocery deliveries on orders of at least $35, as well as free delivery from Target, Petco, Walgreens, and other national chains.

The other companies cracking the top five鈥�Costco Wholesale, The Kroger Co., and The Home Depot鈥攁ll benefit from in-store sales. As in-store retail media takes off, those businesses will be at an advantage. Use this chart:. Budget retail media ad spend. Evaluate wholesale retail strategy. Weigh in-store versus ecommerce. More like this:.

Number two, Costco for That's right. Launching a retAIl media network. This is huge for those of us who have repeatedly sat in meetings with our retAIl team asking why Costco doesn't yet have a retAIl media network. They have one now it's launching, and I think that's a pretty big deal. Suzy Davidkhanian (10:14):.

However, over the long term it needs to find ways to improve the experience it delivers to shoppers to avoid losing sales to mass merchants like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco.

The news: Best Buy is taking steps to compel shoppers to buy computers, TVs, and other consumer electronics from it rather than its broad array of online and offline competitors that includes Amazon, Costco, and Walmart.

For example, both Target and Costco are testing supersized stores that dedicate large spaces for ecommerce fulfillment. The big takeaway: Instacart has two key strengths: its exclusive agreements with grocers and its high-margin advertising business. As its agreements expire, grocers could shift to another provider or work with multiple partners.

Not many retailers are explicitly leaning into community buying, but it鈥檚 not unlikely we鈥檒l see wholesale retailers like Costco or Sam鈥檚 Club incorporate that messaging into their marketing strategies. This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

Kroger faces strong headwinds as value-oriented retailers ranging from Walmart to Aldi to Costco chip away at Kroger鈥檚 share of food spend. The net result is that Walmart鈥檚 share of grocery dollars rose 1.1 percentage points over the past year to 25.2%, while second-place Kroger saw its share fall 0.5 percentage points to 10.7%.

The growing emphasis on price explains why Costco and Sam鈥檚 Club, two companies known for providing value, are now ranked among dunnhumby鈥檚 top five grocery retailers. Amazon, Trader Joe鈥檚, and BJ鈥檚 Wholesale Club also made the top ten. The big picture: There鈥檚 a clear disconnect between grocers鈥� priorities, and those of CPG companies and other suppliers.