蘑菇AV

US Customs and Border Protection.

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Germany鈥檚 digital landscape is evolving fast, driven by shifting consumer behaviors, increasing ecommerce adoption, and changing media habits. Recent data reveals the trends shaping digital spending, retail sales, and more.

Italy鈥檚 digital landscape is evolving fast, driven by shifting consumer and media habits and increasing ecommerce adoption. Recent data reveals the trends shaping digital spending, retail sales, and more.

The news: Temu鈥檚 foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it鈥檚 possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors鈥攁nd the harder it will be to regain market share.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That鈥檚 a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce鈥攁nd place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth鈥攏amely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs鈥攁re no longer in place.

The news: Shein鈥檚 and Temu鈥檚 influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers鈥� loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

A trade war between two of the world鈥檚 largest consumer markets would cause significant disruption for consumers, retailers, and brands in Europe.

The US-China trade war drives Shein to diversify its sourcing: Shein and Reliance Retail plan to start international sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months.

Temu parent PDD鈥檚 profits fell 47% in Q1 as global and domestic challenges pile up: The company鈥檚 operating model is ill-equipped for today鈥檚 protectionist trade policies.

He paused the tariff for 30 days in early February 2025 after Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the border, and in late February announced they would take effect March 4. Brazil: The country鈥檚 ties to BRICS鈥攁n alliance of major emerging economies鈥攈ave made it a tariff target.

That includes high-value transactions, often critical or cross-border, which must be sent quickly. With settlement in less than 24 hours, wire payments clear without delay, giving businesses immediate access to money. Businesses are turning to blockchain-based payments for its efficiencies.

The digital landscape in Europe is slowing, but opportunities for advertisers, brands, and retailers still exist. Knowing where to look to achieve the best outcomes will be paramount.

Shein, Temu take advantage of tariff reprieve: Shein is raising prices while Temu resumes China shipments, as both retailers try to undo a sales slump.

The Trump administration is stepping back from the brink: After trimming China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, it reduced duties on low-value parcels from China to a still-high 54%.

US sales on Shein and Temu fell sharply following price increases: The decline is an unwelcome sign as both marketplaces fight to stay relevant with shoppers.

Amazon Haul expands overseas as de minimis uncertainty clouds domestic prospects: The low-cost marketplace is now available to UK and Saudi Arabian shoppers.

Shein and Temu pull back US digital ad spending, shift to Europe: The change shows how geopolitical tensions trickle down to business operations.

In April, Walmart led the retail rankings thanks to its advanced grid-based delivery system and an elevated in-store beauty experience. Amazon followed closely with the testing of a new AI-powered 鈥淏uy For Me鈥� feature designed to simplify purchases. Meanwhile, Temu and Shein adjusted their pricing strategies due to rising import costs, risking their low-price appeal. Here are the eight most interesting retailers and brands from last month, as ranked on our 鈥淏ehind the Numbers鈥� podcast.

Shein considers restructuring to minimize tariff, de minimis impact: But any move to shift production out of China could provoke Beijing鈥檚 ire鈥攁nd derail its long-awaited IPO.

Tariffs drive ad pullbacks: Temu and Shein reduce US ad spending ahead of policy shift, signaling fallout across ecommerce and social platforms.

Nearly 4 million packages entered the US per day under the de minimis exemption in 2024, with the majority originating from China, per US Customs and Border Protection data.

Meta under fire on multiple fronts: Teen-targeting claims, a high-stakes FTC trial, and Chinese advertiser pullback could reshape the company鈥檚 ad model.