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With most of retail media ad spending dedicated to search, retail media networks (RMNs) will likely lean into the channel. There鈥檚 little early evidence that tariffs will disrupt the channel鈥檚 current plans for genAI. Neither incumbents nor upstarts appear to be pausing or revising their plans to incorporate AI more fully into their products.

We forecast US retail media ad spend will hit $82.49 billion in 2025, with Amazon holding over 80% share. Walmart鈥檚 smaller but fast-growing global ad business will grow 38% this year and 43.8% in the US; TTD鈥檚 DSP opportunity lies at the crossroads of that momentum and a US programmatic market set to exceed $200 billion next year.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes鈥攏ot impressions鈥攚ill shape the next era.

Two-thirds of US retail media buyers expect to spend more on video advertising over the next 12 months, according to March 2025 data from Koddi. Nearly as many (63%) will up their investments in social media.

Retail media will make huge gains this year in Canada. Our first-ever forecast for retail media ad spending in Canada and our joint survey of ad buyers (conducted with IAB Canada) highlight the latest developments.

Retailers that aimed to be media giants are hitting headwinds as ad growth slows. To stay competitive, retail media networks must rethink org structure, sharpen media skills, and plan smartly to thrive in a more challenging landscape.

Click here to view our full forecast for US retail media ad spending. CTV faces the widest range of plausible outcomes. The tariffs may have only a minor impact on the CTV advertising market. CTV remains one of the fastest-growing ad channels we track.

A series of major milestones are on tap for total media and digital media ad spending around the world in 2025, although growth will be uneven across countries and regions.

Retail media networks (RMNs) are eyeing the open web as an opportunity for scaled growth, but successfully integrating retailer data off-platform won鈥檛 happen overnight.

Healthy growth will obscure the upheaval that retail media鈥檚 evolution is causing. Retailers racing to think more like publishers鈥攁nd brands trying to rethink the value of retail media鈥攁re feeling some strain.

Retail media ad spending topped C$3 billion in 2024. Retail media formats are expanding as the market matures. GenAI deployments are now table stakes for retailers.

Even with heavy tariffs, US retail media ad spend will grow by 8.5% in 2025, per our April 2025 forecast. Use this chart: Media buyers and strategists can prepare scenario plans tied to tariff policy risks. Financial teams that budget forecasts should account for macro volatility and international policy shifts that could ripple through marketing plans.

础尘补锄辞苍鈥檚 retail media ad revenues will exceed $60 billion, per WARC: The change represents its steady growth despite broader economic setbacks.

In-store retail media is Europe鈥檚 next big ad opportunity. But as retailers digitize stores, standardization and measurement challenges are dragging advertiser adoption.

Go further: View our tariff coverage in our Impact of Tariffs hub, which includes reports like Impact of Tariffs on US Retail Media Ad Spending.

AI shopping assistants are reshaping product discovery and threatening retail media鈥檚 search-driven model. RMNs and advertisers need to adjust strategies to protect their market position and seize the opportunity to turn disruption into growth.

Tariffs will have an impact on retail media spend, but even in the most extreme scenario of tariff implementation, we still expect retail media ad spend to rise this year. 鈥溎⒐紸V half of Amazon's top 10,000 sellers are based in China,鈥� Marzano said. But many of these sellers may not have any choice but to continue spending on US-based retail media networks.