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Google will fall below a 50% share of the US search advertising market next year for the first time since we started tracking it in 2008, per our forecast. It鈥檚 a pivotal time for paid search, with Google鈥檚 ad dominance threatened by generative AI, social media, retail media, and lawsuits. Meanwhile, ad-averse consumers are becoming hesitant to click search ads. Here are four trends our exclusive KPI data reveal about Google, retail media, and the future of paid search.

Search ads launch on TikTok: The keyword-based feature enables brands to reach users during searches, aligning ad efforts with user intent and behavior.

It could also mean experimenting with AI search ads where available and testing formats such as sponsored related questions. Go further: Check out 5 Charts on the State of GenAI Search.

We forecast that Amazon search ad revenues, while moving at a slower rate, will continue growing in upcoming years鈥攁nd its strength in search ad revenues is second only to Google. Our take: Advertisers who maintain visibility during downturns often emerge stronger, and Amazon鈥檚 reach means ad spend will likely remain resilient compared to other channels.

The consolidation strengthens Similarweb鈥檚 presence in search advertising by enhancing ad monitoring and tracking ad rankings, ad copy, keyword reach, and trademark use, per Martech Cube. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. 鈥淭his acquisition is another important step in our mission to make digital data more actionable, operational, and indispensable,鈥� said Or Offer, Similarweb鈥檚 CEO.

Google鈥檚 share of the total search ad market is declining thanks to the rise of retail media. But its share of the traditional search market (which excludes retail media search ad spending) is actually increasing, per our forecast. Perplexity is currently the only major AI-first challenger to monetize with ads.

Search Ad Spending鈥�. Search Ad Spending, by Device鈥�. Display Ad Spending鈥�. Display Ad Spending, by Device鈥�. Display Ad Spending, by Format鈥�. UK Digital Ad Spending Benchmarks, by Channel. Digital Ad Spending, by Channel鈥�. Social Network Ad Spending鈥�. Social Network Ad Revenues, by Company鈥�. Retail Media Ad Spending鈥�. Connected TV (CTV) Ad Spending鈥�. UK Programmatic Ad Spending Benchmarks.

We forecast that Google鈥檚 worldwide search ad revenues will total $175.11 billion this year, accounting for 55.3% of total search ad spending. Microsoft, by comparison, will have worldwide search ad revenues of $9.21 billion, or just under 3% of total search ad spend. That gap emphasizes just how big of a lead Google has over competitors after several decades of being synonymous with internet search.

Still, OpenAI is continuing its hiring spree of advertising professionals, including talent from key competitors like Shivakumar Venkataraman, previous vice president of Google鈥檚 search advertising team鈥攊ndicating that advertising might indeed be in its future.

Copilot outperformed traditional search ad relevance by 25% and doubled click-through rates last year, per Microsoft. Our take: AI-powered ads could be a key contributor to Copilot鈥檚 growth efforts, as the technology has struggled to impress enterprise customers in the past.

Search Ad Revenues, by Company. Retail Media Ad Spending Benchmarks. Retail Media Ad Spending. Retail Media Ad Spending, by Channel. Retail Media Ad Spending, by Format. Retail Media Ad Revenues, by Company. TV and CTV Ad Spending Benchmarks. Combined TV and CTV Ad Spending. TV and CTV Ad Spending, by Distribution Method. Traditional TV Ad Spending. CTV Ad Spending. CTV Ad Revenues, by Company.

TikTok is the latest to court advertisers with new search ads, but other players will also vie for spending in this space. Amazon鈥檚 ad revenue growth proves the importance of retail media. Accounting for 71.5% of total UK retail media digital ad revenues in 2024, Amazon provides a good barometer of the wider retail media space.

That limits the scale of growth both companies can expect from their search advertising businesses. Consequently, we believe that retail media search ad spending will enter a period of relatively muted growth beginning in 2025, when it will increase 15.5% YoY. Growth will decelerate every year through 2027, when it reaches 12.2% YoY. Search ad density varies widely across RMNs.

The news: Google rolled out Carbon Footprints for Google Ads to track emissions on Search Ads 360, Campaign Manager 360, Display & Video 360, and Google Ads.

Retail and search ad formats will also grow 10% to reach $167 billion, and social media formats will grow 11% to $92 billion. The news comes after one of the highest-performing years of ad sales growth in recent history. 2024 sales reached $380 billion, per Magna, growing 12.4% YoY鈥攐r 9.9% when excluding cyclical events like elections鈥攁nd rising 13% in Q4.

As platforms refine their new tools and features, consumer behavior and retail search ad formats will evolve. The social search ad trend is starting to surge. TikTok is the latest platform to court advertisers with new search ads, but other players will also vie for spending in this space. GenAI is changing the game across the media spectrum.

Use this chart: Marketers can use this chart to illustrate that Google is still the go-to source for factual searches, suggesting Google SEO and search ads should remain a priority. However, the chart can also be used to show the emergence of alternative search channels, which should be factored into search strategy. Related 蘑菇AV charts:.

But despite its small size, travel is an important player in search advertising, and its idiosyncratic approach to social and mobile advertising stands out. Key Question: How much will the travel industry and its subcategories spend on digital advertising this year and through 2026?

The US search ad market will reach $143.13 billion in 2025. Google's market share decreased from 63.9% in 2015 to 52.2% in 2025. Average consumers use five different platforms for search. Social platforms like Meta AI could easily surpass ChatGPT in monthly users. Myth 2: Only the biggest players will succeed. Reality check: Significant growth opportunities exist beyond Google, Meta, and Amazon.

Google must not operate an ad exchange for 10 years post-sale, and it must open its ad-buying tools (e.g., AdWords) to third-party providers on equal terms. It鈥檚 also asking Google to share DFP data with competitors and stop using first-party data from YouTube, Gmail, Search, Chrome, and Android for unfair ad-targeting advantages.

Temu is testing search ads, which could create a large enough revenue stream to offset the impact of the de minimis changes and tariffs. However, moves by China to restrict companies from investing in the US could limit these retailers鈥� ability to build out a local supply chain, although for now existing commitments are unaffected.

Advertising professionals need to dig into the AI tools that will fare best for their applications, whether that鈥檚 agentic AI, deep research models, or search. Ad agencies that ensure the human touch will stay ahead of the pack and top of mind.

Advertisers buy search ads on keywords or word combinations. Search advertisers can use genAI to identify new keywords, group them in novel ways, and assess match levels that they may not have considered. How will it create impact?

The DOJ pushed for a gradual, multi-stage implementation plan for DoubleClick, while requesting Google opens ad buying tools like AdWords to create a level playing field with Google for third-party vendors 鈥渙n non-discriminatory terms.鈥�. Julia Tarver Wood, the DOJ鈥檚 lead lawyer in the case, stated that leaving Google with 鈥�90% of publishers beholden to them is, frankly, too dangerous.鈥�