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鈥淐onsumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,鈥� wrote Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan鈥檚 Surveys of Consumers, who recently appeared on our 鈥淩eimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

Our take: Trump鈥檚 tariff pause may have given the market a breather鈥攂ut for marketers, the bigger problem is the erosion of long-term business confidence. Advertising thrives on predictability.

Even if de-escalation occurs, the economic uncertainty will leave a lasting mark on GDP and consumption behavior. What鈥檚 next? The impact of tariffs extends beyond global trade鈥攊t will have an impact on advertising strategies and media planning.

Most CEOs expect a recession and inflation: US consumers face significant uncertainty ahead, prompting them to pull back and focus spending on essentials.

Trump鈥檚 tariffs fuel ad industry pullback: Marketers are cutting budgets and ad growth projections fall sharply as inflation and trade uncertainty rise.

Market instability as well as concerns over an economic slowdown as a result of President Trump鈥檚 tariffs are making the BNPL player pause its plans

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� provides little clarity: The tariff announcements, while far-ranging and punitive for the US鈥� largest trading partners, failed to lift the cloud of uncertainty hanging over businesses and consumers.

Uncertainty is having a chilling effect on US M&A activity: The number鈥攁nd size鈥�of deals is down YoY as companies wait for more clarity on government policy.

Toys and hobby sales have normalized after a pandemic-era spike, though some brands are still flying high. Here鈥檚 what to expect from the industry this year.

This leaves the BNPL industry back at square one in terms of regulation, creating uncertainty for providers

Retailers faced no shortage of challenges in the first half of the year as elevated interest rates, the lingering effects of inflation, and a loosening labor market weighed on consumer spending. In this report, we鈥檒l contextualize our coverage of retailers鈥� Q2 revenues across four key verticals: department stores, home, mass merchants, and off-price.

Darden expects consumers to keep splurging on restaurant meals despite uncertainty: But dining out could be one of the first indulgences to go once tariff-related price hikes take effect.

The landscape: Economic uncertainty from the US-Canada trade war is putting immense pressure on Canadian retailers, as rising prices squeeze household budgets. Consumer confidence plummeted in February to levels last seen during the pandemic, according to The Conference Board of Canada.

US restaurant sales rose just 1.5% YoY in February: That鈥檚 one of the troubling signs in February鈥檚 weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers.

The economy is still under pressure, but investment in digital advertising will continue apace. Retail will continue to lead the ranking for total spend. Travel will lead in terms of growth, followed closely by CPG and retail.

Marketers can use this to recognize high growth areas of investment strategies and acknowledge the uncertainty shown in TikTok investments as a potential nudge to diversify their social ad spend.

Banks must help customers navigate growing economic uncertainty.

Grocery sales shifting online is a lasting legacy of the pandemic: We expect 13.7% of grocery sales to occur online this year, more than double the 6.2% share in prepandemic 2019.

Dick鈥檚 Sporting Goods had its best holiday quarter on record: While Q4 comparable sales soared past expectations, the retailer is tempering its outlook due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.