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US tariffs could stall Germany鈥檚 economy this year: GDP is forecast to grow just 0.1% as the duties on autos and other imports curb companies鈥� access to an important growth market.

In the heavy tariff scenario, retail sales are projected to decline 1.0% YoY, compared to 2.9% growth under the limited scenario, making it clear that tariffs will significantly slow retail growth. Go further: For a deeper dive into the wide-ranging implications of the Trump administration鈥檚 trade policies on brands, retailers, and media players, read our report, 鈥淚mpact of Tariffs on US 叠耻蝉颈苍别蝉蝉别蝉.鈥�.

奥补测蹿补颈谤鈥檚 US sales rose 1.6% YoY in Q1: Despite growing macroeconomic headwinds and a frozen housing market, demand remained strong.

But the company is vulnerable to declining US consumer sentiment and China鈥檚 struggling economy鈥攏either of which will be helped by a trade war. Go further: Read our report on the Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses, and stay up to date with the latest tariff developments with our Live FAQ: The Impact of Trump鈥檚 Tariffs on Consumers, Businesses, and Trade.

Go further: Read our report, Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.

The news: Walmart is going all-in on beauty this spring, despite signs of wariness from US consumers. The retailer鈥檚 Beauty Event will run until May 31 and feature deals and rollbacks on over 1,800 items. Walmart is also piloting Beauty Bars at 40 locations, where shoppers can discover and test new products and speak to beauty experts.

The news: Kimberly-Clark expects tariffs to cost it an additional $300 million this year, despite the fact that the majority of its US products are sourced and manufactured domestically. By the numbers: While just 20% of its US business is exposed to tariffs, Kimberly-Clark鈥檚 global presence means it faces duties from multiple sides.

And unfortunately for consumers, tariffs are all but guaranteed to result in higher prices, even for products made in the US. Items from South Korea and France鈥攖he two top importers of beauty products to the US鈥攁re currently subject to a 10% universal tariff. That number could rise to 25% for Korean imports and 20% for French goods once the temporary reprieve on reciprocal duties is up in July.

Albertsons鈥� cautious outlook underscores the common theme among retailers this quarter: The upheaval from seemingly day-to-day changes in tariff policy is impossible to account for in guidance鈥攅ven for companies like Albertsons that mainly sell US-made products. Over 90% of the products Albertsons sells are procured domestically, but some of those items have elements that originate elsewhere.

The retailer will soon be able to deliver orders in less than 3 hours to 95% of US households, Walmart US CEO John Furner said. It鈥檚 also following in Amazon鈥檚 footsteps with a member-exclusive sale that will take place from April 28 to May 4, which could entice more shoppers to sign up for Walmart+ and boost loyalty at a critical moment.

US consumers will spend $3.2 billion on flowers this Mother鈥檚 Day: While NRF鈥檚 forecast is flat YoY, florists face tighter margins as tariffs drive up costs.

But equally, they could push countries to embrace China or look for other markets to take the place of the US.

The news: Housing starts fell 11.4% MoM in March, per the US Census Bureau. That鈥檚 the biggest drop in over a year, and an ominous sign for an industry already reeling as high interest rates and home prices depress demand. Sales are weak: D.R.

The cost of everything from Pandora jewelry to Adidas sneakers is rising: The trend is poised to accelerate as tariff-hit goods arrive at US ports鈥攁nd shoppers have taken note.

Our take: Mattel may have outperformed expectations in Q1, but it鈥檚 still firmly in the crosshairs of the US-China trade war. While it has done more than many other toymakers to diversify its supply chain, its exposure remains a significant challenge. Shifting production further isn鈥檛 simple.

Go further: Read our report Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.

Companies like Pepsi, which rely on overseas production to supply the US market, face additional headaches as they weigh whether it鈥檚 worth the effort to rejigger their supply chains. The outlook is further complicated by consumers鈥� heightened anxiety, which is causing even financially secure shoppers to tighten the purse strings in anticipation of a possible recession.

Anxiety around inflation, a deteriorating labor market, and trade war consequences have deepened consumer uncertainty about the US economy, with wide-ranging implications for retail.

Go further: Read our report on the Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.

That point is underscored by the fact that the administration鈥檚 wide tariff net ensnares countries that the US does not have a trade deficit with, further weakening the White House鈥檚 argument for implementing those tariffs. Go further: Read our report on the Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.

Most CEOs expect a recession and inflation: US consumers face significant uncertainty ahead, prompting them to pull back and focus spending on essentials.

International boycotts of US brands and travel could cost the economy up to $90 billion: Rising anti-American sentiment caused by Trump鈥檚 policies is making it harder for companies to operate at home and abroad.

It also reflects the tightrope that US companies must walk in China as they try to avoid falling afoul of anti-American sentiment and earning the ire of government authorities. Our take: Beijing has touted domestic consumption as the key to blunting the impact of the US-China trade war.

The impacts of the Trump Administration鈥檚 new tariffs are already rippling through global supply chains and consumer markets. "US retailers should be dusting off their inflation playbooks and brace for erratic shifts in spending patterns," warned our analyst Blake Droesch.