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An improving UK economy means digital ad spending in all industries will see healthy growth this year. Retail will still lead total spend, but automotive will receive a boost thanks to significant investments.

Advertisers there are adjusting to a slumping economy and increased ad costs from the Digital Services Tax, which went into effect in June 2024. Click here to view our full programmatic digital display ad spending forecasts for Canada, China, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. But the US programmatic display market is still the biggest by far.

Turbulence in trade relations is changing how China鈥檚 ecommerce platforms do business in the US, with spillover effects on US retail and advertising.

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Growth rates in retail media ad spending are slowing YoY. The channel鈥檚 contribution to total digital ad spending continues to rise, however, highlighting the increasing influence of retail media on holistic advertising strategies.

M&A gained momentum in H2 2024. Ad tech M&A increased by 73% YoY in 2024, according to data from Luma Partners. After accelerating over the course of the year, deal volume in Q4 2024 was the highest it鈥檚 been since the record-breaking Q4 2021, when the sector saw 28 transactions. Most deals were under $100 million.

As a result, we have revised our retail media forecast down from where it was in H1 2024. (The insights in this report are based on our H2 2024 forecasting data.) We now expect US retail media ad spending to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% from 2024 through 2028, down from the 24.1% we predicted earlier last year.

Accelerating growth in 2023 and 2024 solidified our confidence that the benchmark will be achieved this year. When our forecasting began in 2011, worldwide ad spending was just $384 billion. Digital ad spending will account for more than 75% of worldwide total media ad spending for the first time.

We expect Mercado Libre鈥檚 retail media arm to capture 6.2% of digital ad spending in Latin America this year, up from 5.1% in 2024. Zooming out: It was a strong quarter overall for the Latin American ecommerce giant. Q1 revenues climbed 37% YoY to $5.9 billion, beating the $5.5 billion analysts expected. GMV rose 40% to $13.3 billion.

The news: IAB鈥檚 2025 gaming PlayFronts event emphasized that brands can no longer afford to avoid gaming, highlighting gaming鈥檚 value as a critical advertising channel. 32.5 billion gaming hours were streamed in 2024, yet gaming accounts for less than 5% of digital ad spend, stated keynote speaker Zoe Soon. Platforms like Discord highlighted their value proposition for advertisers.

Targeted political ads mobilize key voters for the 2024 election: Both the Harris and Trump campaigns are pouring millions into micro-targeted ads aimed at swing state Latino and Asian voters to boost turnout.

Strong growth in digital ad spending will continue in 2025. Digital ad spending growth in 2025 will maintain most of 2024鈥檚 momentum. Advertisers will increase spending in 2025 by 12.5% YoY, a slight dip from 2024鈥檚 15.0% growth. But that will be enough to push digital鈥檚 share of total US ad spend past 80%.

The ad spending winter of 2022 and early 2023 was mild and short-lived, as we predicted. And after a solid H2 2023, things are looking up across the board for 2024.

This report presents five of the most intriguing and/or under-the-radar positive forecasts for 2024 that clients should be aware of, as compiled by our forecasting team.