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Mexico and Canada were excluded from this round but still face existing tariffs on key sectors, including a 25% duty on vehicle imports. Per Foreign Policy and AS/COA reporting, some countries that aligned diplomatically with Washington鈥攕uch as Argentina鈥攄id not benefit from preferential treatment.

Ad revenues per gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose across all countries, with Argentina narrowing the gap with Brazil and Mexico. Advertising鈥檚 share of GMV was 2.6% in Q2, up from 2.4% in Q1, based on our estimates. Mercado Libre expects that share to accelerate in Q3, and we project its retail media arm will capture 6.9% of digital ad spending in Latin America this year, up from 5.1% in 2024.

But in Mexico this year, so 2024 is the first year that Mercado Libre is going to overtake Amazon in Mexico. So, it already happened in Brazil because there always was the leader, but in Mexico specifically, that's always been a battleground market that Mercado Libre's been really investing heavily into.

TikTok, meanwhile, accelerated plans to launch TikTok Shop in Mexico and Brazil. But while their US prospects have dimmed, China鈥檚 ecommerce players will continue to significantly outpace the 5% growth rate for overall US ecommerce in 2025. We forecast that Temu鈥檚 US sales will increase by 13.5%, while Shein鈥檚 will rise by 10.0%.

The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media鈥檚 global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing鈥攅xpected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels鈥攍ike last-mile delivery and in-store signage鈥攇ain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

They are already sparking layoffs: Stellantis is cutting 900 jobs and pausing production in Canada and Mexico. A big bite out of Apple: In 2023, Apple started accelerating production in India and Vietnam to reduce reliance on China. With those regions no longer serving as viable tariff workarounds, Apple鈥檚 cost mitigation options are narrowing quickly.