蘑菇AV

This could be critical ahead of an expected pullback in digital ad spending from Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein due to tariffs. Adding another Meta platform for advertisers could cushion revenue losses on Facebook or Instagram. Yes, but: The app could face hurdles with users and connectivity.

Despite uncertainty related to the economy and tariffs, US social network ad spending is expected to grow. AI offerings, social commerce, and lower-funnel investments will drive outlays.

We forecast programmatic display ad spending for six major markets: Canada, China, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. Programmatic display ad spending will grow the fastest in Western European countries this year. These markets are regaining momentum after inflation and an energy crisis depressed ad spending growth in 2022 and 2023.

A jarring deceleration in ad spending growth has shaken the advertising industry in many parts of the world. However, this softness is not universal, and it is likely to be short-lived.

That鈥檚 more than double the increase we鈥檒l see in Canada, China, France, Germany, and the UK combined. While there鈥檚 growth across the board in the global programmatic market, rates are tied to total ad spending outlays in each country:. Canada is funneling ad dollars into video and connected TV (CTV). This, in turn, drives strong growth in programmatic display, as is the case in the US.

Under 蘑菇AV鈥檚 modest tariff scenario鈥攖he most likely outcome following the 90-day China-US trade war pause that ends July 9鈥攚e expect US social network ad spending to reach $96 billion, significantly below the $103 billion under our light tariff scenario. Our take: The only certain part of TikTok鈥檚 looming US sale is that uncertainty will remain.

The US and China drive these numbers and will determine if a rebound is coming. China鈥檚 ecommerce stumble has been the largest factor in the worldwide ecommerce sales growth slump. China鈥檚 digital ad industry quickly followed its digital consumers into the deep freeze. The same happened in the US to a lesser extent, and the US ad spending malaise has similarly constrained the worldwide figures.

In recent years, Meta and other social networks have seen an influx of ad dollars from Chinese retailers such as Shein and Temu. Heavy tariffs could reduce our best-case scenario for social ad spending across all devices by 10.0% in 2025.

Behind the numbers: The survey highlighted deep concerns among Americans about China's global influence, as US-China relations have reached their lowest point in decades. 60% of Americans believe China is gaining an economic advantage over the US by spying on American companies. 56% think China is gaining a military advantage by spying on the US government.

TikTok's privacy debacle deepens: Internal documents reveal ByteDance employees have been sharing user data on internal platform Lark, undermining the company's claims of robust security measures and stirring fresh concerns about potential security risks and ties to China

The news: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before the US House Energy and Commerce Committee on Thursday, addressing concerns about data privacy, the platform's influence on young users, and ties to China. Chew emphasized TikTok's commitment to user safety, data protection, and independence from government manipulation.

TikTok steps up its PR in the US capital: It鈥檚 hard for a Chinese company to make friends on the Hill, but it won鈥檛 be for lack of trying.

A trade war with the US will hinder economic performance in Canada this year. Ad spending overall is expected to lose the momentum gained in 2024. But many digital formats will benefit from the emphasis on return on ad spending.

US consumers shop frequently with Temu and Shein, despite trust issues: Both Chinese retailers are winning more repeat customers than established players like eBay and Etsy.

Meta could benefit significantly if TikTok left the US: A House vote looms, impacting national security and social media dynamics.

With the ascent of Chinese ecommerce disruptors and the ongoing rivalry between Amazon and Walmart, the upcoming holiday season is expected to bring some big shifts. Some of those shifts include the lessening of Cyber Five鈥檚 importance and retailers losing focus on profitability, said our analysts Jeremy Goldman and Zak Stambor on a recent episode of the 鈥淏ehind the Numbers鈥� podcast.

Both companies have been major drivers of influencer marketing and social ad spending growth, and a pullback could throw the current trajectory off course. China-based advertisers accounted for 11% of Meta鈥檚 ad revenues, per the company鈥檚 recent earnings reports. Bank of America also estimates that Temu and Shein alone contribute as much as 2% to 4% of ad spend on Meta and Google.