蘑菇AV

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands calibrate their sales mix against the market.

The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target鈥檚 Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn鈥檛 just subscription revenues鈥攊t鈥檚 their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk鈥攕treaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping鈥攁nd the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360鈥檚 offerings.

LinkedIn is urging B2B marketers to embrace unscripted, authentic video after seeing strong engagement growth on the platform. CMO Jessica Jensen told 蘑菇AV that 鈥渞eal humans talking like real humans鈥� resonates far more than polished assets, encouraging executives to share candid updates and even humor in their posts. The push reflects broader demand: 52% of US B2B marketers used video in 2024, while Millennials and Gen Z鈥攏ow 71% of B2B buyers鈥攅xpect casual, social-style content in professional settings. With B2B video ad spend rising nearly 18% this year, LinkedIn is well positioned to capture that momentum.

Apple is partnering with digital platform TuneIn to strengthen its radio reach and better compete with Spotify, per the Wall Street Journal. The move will see Apple distribute its radio stations across connected cars and home speakers globally and marks the first time Apple鈥檚 current radio stations will be accessible outside of the Apple Music app. Apple鈥檚 radio push could breathe life into its struggling streaming units, attracting listeners who haven鈥檛 considered Apple Music and potentially drawing in advertisers who are looking for access to Apple鈥檚 library.

The news: IDC has nearly doubled its worldwide smartphone forecast for 2025. Once projected at 0.6%, growth is now expected to hit 1%, fueled by iOS momentum, replacement demand, and a premium-device push, per 9to5Mac. Our take: Smartphones are entering a new cycle of innovation and moving upmarket. AI-first features and foldables will reset consumer expectations, open premium price tiers, and change which brands consumers choose and build loyalty toward. Advertisers and marketers should plan for richer, device-native experiences. Build campaigns that tap into AI-driven personalization, visual search, and generative content creation.

The news: AI dominated Wednesday鈥檚 Made by Google event, where the company unveiled its Pixel 10 lineup. Google pitched Gemini as 鈥減ersonal intelligence,鈥� framing it as a universal AI assistant across smartphones, wearables, smart homes, and connected cars. The showcase feature, Magic Cue, anticipates user needs by pulling data from Gmail, Calendar, and Messages to suggest timely actions. Our take: If features like Magic Cue prove indispensable, Google gains a recurring revenue stream and deeper ecosystem lock-in. If they fade as gimmicks, Pixel risks remaining a niche brand, especially if competitors can provide similar apps or services.

In this podcast episode, we discuss the difference between a real miss vs. sparking conversation, if there is such a thing as bad press, and what brands should do once a campaign doesn鈥檛 land. Listen to the discussion with Vice President of Content and guest host, Suzy Davidkhanian, Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves, and Analyst, Arielle Feger.

The trend: Major chains like Claire鈥檚, Kroger, and At Home are shuttering locations in response to mounting cost pressures, shifting consumer behaviors, and overextended store networks. Our take: Retail鈥檚 physical footprint is undergoing a recalibration. Store closures aren鈥檛 just about poor performance鈥攖hey鈥檙e a reflection of deeper structural shifts: Tariffs are reshaping sourcing, pricing, and profitability. Consumers are moving toward value and digital-first channels. Legacy formats鈥攍ike mall stores鈥攁re losing relevance. Retailers that can鈥檛 adapt to these changes quickly are finding themselves on increasingly shaky ground.

The news: Google launched Gemini 2.5 Flash Image (nicknamed nano banana), a generative AI image editor that replaces toolbars with text prompts. Already topping LMArena鈥檚 image-editing leaderboard, it signals a shift toward prompt-driven creative tools. Our take: Nano banana, like Veo 3, reinforces Google鈥檚 move to establish Gemini as the default AI tool set for marketers, designers, and advertisers. This opens up adoption opportunities beyond text and coding-based genAI applications. For advertisers and marketers, this means two things: Production cycles can compress, and reliance on legacy design platforms could erode if AI tools can compete on price.

The news: Lowe鈥檚 is acquiring Foundation Building Materials (FBM) for approximately $8.8 billion. The North American distributor of interior building products generated roughly $6.5 billion in revenues in 2024 on a pro forma basis and operates more than 370 locations across the US and Canada, serving 40,000 Pro customers. Its business spans both new construction and repair/remodel applications. Our take: Lowe鈥檚 is playing the long game. By doubling down on Pro customers, the retailer is building a buffer against consumer caution and the frozen housing market. FBM鈥檚 scale positions Lowe鈥檚 to capture long-term share as construction rebounds, and the raised sales guidance signals confidence that its Pro-focused playbook is already delivering results. That stands in contrast to Home Depot, which recently fell short of both revenue and earnings expectations for the first time in a decade. While Home Depot has leaned into its Pro business as well, tariffs, elevated housing costs, and labor pressures are weighing on its results. Lowe鈥檚 acquisitions and investments could give it an edge in weathering near-term headwinds and winning share from contractors and builders who will be critical growth drivers over the next decade.

The situation: The compounded GLP-1 market isn鈥檛 dying down as quickly as previously expected. Our take: Online healthcare companies are getting crafty with how they market and sell compounded GLP-1s. Novo and Lilly will keep experimenting with legal tactics to get copycat GLP-1s off the market, but their path to victory in court is unclear. Short of the FDA stepping in鈥攁nd it doesn鈥檛 seem like it will鈥攖he battle of pharma vs. compounded weight loss drug sellers will get even messier.

Ecommerce advantage: Like fellow ecommerce operators Etsy and eBay, demand on Amazon鈥檚 marketplace has been resilient, with online store sales rising 11% YoY in Q2. That could be a sign that deal-hunting shoppers are turning to ecommerce more to uncover deeper discounts. 70% of US adults believe they can find better discounts online, according to the July edition of Ipsos鈥� Consumer Tracker.

The news: Figma鈥檚 high-profile IPO鈥攙alued at $19.3 billion鈥攍ands it squarely in the league of top-tier software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms and indicates renewed competition in cloud-based tools that agencies rely on for their campaigns. Our take: Instead of being subsumed by Adobe, Figma is now free to chart its own course. Going public gives it the independence to scale, expand its ecosystem, and challenge incumbents directly. For advertisers, Figma remaining independent gives agencies added choice. As creative tools compete for market share, expect faster innovation, more flexible pricing, and features tuned for digital-first campaigns.

But the era of fast growth for digital pay TV is already ending, and its market share is nowhere close to where traditional pay TV used to be. Linear pay TV鈥檚 slide into niche status has officially begun. Prediction. Digital pay TV will confront the same pricing issues faced by traditional pay TV, muddying its future.

emu鈥檚 attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu鈥檚 US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track鈥攂ut a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics鈥攁nd Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power鈥擳emu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.

The results: Walmart鈥檚 decision to directly overlap its 鈥淒eals鈥� event with Amazon's four-day Prime Day sale appears to have paid off. Spending on Walmart.com surged 24% YoY during its promotion that ended July 13, according to credit and debit card transaction data from Bloomberg Second Measure鈥攕ix times Amazon Prime Day鈥檚 YoY growth rate. Data from Similarweb reinforces the momentum: Walmart鈥檚 web traffic rose 14% and app usage jumped 22%, compared with flat web traffic and a 3% app increase for Amazon. Zooming out: Exact sales figures remain elusive, but one thing is clear: July has become a high-stakes battleground for summer spending. While Amazon may have pioneered the mid-summer shopping holiday, Walmart and others are proving it鈥檚 no longer a one-player game. A growing number of consumers are using Prime Day as a cue to comparison shop鈥攃reating real opportunities for retailers that can deliver compelling value, urgency, and convenience.

The news: The connected TV (CTV) market is in flux as retail giants Amazon and Walmart escalate their fight for dominance鈥攕taking claims not just on content or devices, but on the operating systems themselves. Our take: Amazon and Walmart are racing to close the gap between attention and action. Controlling TV hardware and CTV operating systems while linking them to first-party retail data helps build seamless, closed-loop ad ecosystems where viewers can become buyers in a click. To stay competitive, marketers must optimize for closed-loop attribution, prioritize retail media integrations, and treat smart TVs as both screen and storefront as retail media and CTV ad spending surge.

As streaming subscription prices increase, viewers are becoming more amendable to ad-supported tiers.

The news: Linear TV鈥攁lready struggling amid the rise of digital鈥攊s at risk as US leaders across parties push for a crackdown on the multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical ad market. Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is pursuing policies that would require advertisers to disclose drug side effects more transparently or risk losing the ability to deduct ad spending from their taxes, per Bloomberg. Our take: Restrictions on pharma advertising would isolate linear TV from omnichannel budgets and put it at a greater disadvantage against more data-rich platforms, accelerating the shift to digital.

The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users鈥� behalf without 鈥渇inal human review,鈥� the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren鈥檛 yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.

Gen Z, millennials are least likely to take health concerns to their PCP: Healthcare marketers need to show them where to get low-cost care while warning against overtrusting online medical information.