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Our first-ever worldwide forecast for retail media ad spending shows enduring momentum and lots of good news for Amazon and other ecommerce platforms around the world.

Mercado Libre is bullish about growth opportunities: The ecommerce giant is making massive investments to extend its dominance of the Latin American market.

And this week he said that he would set tariffs between 25% and 100% on goods imported from Mexico鈥攖he US鈥� largest trading partner鈥攊f it didn鈥檛 close the border. The additional costs associated with the proposed tariffs would be too large for many US retailers to absorb.

Shoppers are less willing to wait when everyday goods are locked up. For example, 53% of shoppers will wait for assistance if bath and body products are locked up and 56% will wait for makeup and cosmetics, compared with 74% for consumer electronics. Our take: Retailers鈥� efforts to rein in retail theft may have an outsize effect on their short- and long-term business.

Around the World: Economic effects on retail and ecommerce. Around the World: The international forecasts of past (2023), present (now), and future (2024). Around the World: 2024 global predictions ('Shark Tank'-style)鈥擱etail media rivals, metaverse shopping experiences, and more. Sources. Atlantico. Banco Central do Brasil (BCB). Banco de 惭茅虫颈肠辞 (Banxico). Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Platform maturity can speed up adoption, as seen in China's dominance, which is fueled by the close integration of digital payments and ecommerce. Despite having a smaller market share, the US is gaining ground thanks to delivery services, supermarkets, and bargain stores, which suggests that brands are pursuing niche but highly motivated consumers.

As Chinese ecommerce players make further inroads in Latin America, local companies are finding new ways to innovate and keep pace with consumers鈥� fast-evolving shopping habits. Several have already done so, but others will need to keep up. Mercado Libre launched its 鈥淐lips鈥� functionality this past summer to compete directly with TikTok鈥檚 ecommerce ambitions in Latin America.

It's the ecommerce giant鈥檚 first credit card but likely not the last as it competes with Amazon and other ecommerce sites

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day鈥檚 duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

In Latin America, video is the cornerstone of digital ad spending, particularly in Mexico where it was 48.9% of overall digital ad spending. Retail media growth: Retail media is a desirable platform for advertisers due to its direct access to consumers, first-party data and omnichannel reach.

Our take: For Latin American retail and ecommerce professionals, this is a moment to stress-test supply chains, tighten communication with US partners, and monitor bilateral developments closely. Brazil and Mexico may appear relatively insulated in this round, but exposure to global inflation, shifting investor confidence, and slower trade flows will continue to challenge growth.

Amazon will capture more than half (51.1%) of all retail ecommerce sales in Germany this year, according to our forecast. Canada will have the second-highest share of Amazon ecommerce sales among the countries we track, at 41.5%, followed by the US, UK, Japan, and Mexico.

The boom times for ecommerce and retail have largely passed. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be harder [for retailers] to identify pockets of growth and opportunity. But, the good news is that it鈥檚 not going to be that roller coaster of demand fluctuations that has been challenging for retailers to navigate over the last couple of years,鈥� our analyst Blake Droesch said.