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Grocery ecommerce penetration is now into double digits, but there are wide disparities among CPG categories. Those with high ecommerce penetration will be best suited to the D2C ecommerce opportunity. Pet products are ideal for D2C ecommerce. With 38.4% of sales coming via ecommerce this year, pet products have already seen a pronounced shift online.

The top five US digital grocers captured 67.2% of the country鈥檚 grocery ecommerce market cornered in 2022. Walmart is in particularly good shape as consumers shift from more expensive competitors to Walmart鈥檚 promise of low prices. Beyond this chart, Instacart remains the intermediary to watch鈥攊t partners with all of the top five digital grocers except Amazon.

While Walmart鈥檚 US grocery ecommerce sales only represent 15.5% of the company鈥檚 total grocery sales, they will grow by double digits this year, reaching $39.91 billion and outpacing Albertsons Companies ($5.47 billion), Amazon ($35.46 billion), Target ($7.72 billion), and The Kroger Co. ($15.85 billion).

This represents over a quarter (27.3%) of total US grocery ecommerce sales and 4.6% of total US retail ecommerce sales. While intermediaries鈥� share of ecommerce sales (grocery or otherwise) will remain relatively flat for the next couple of years, they鈥檙e still a long-term threat to traditional retail. But there鈥檚 an opportunity for retailers to use intermediaries鈥� strategies against them.

Walmart: Droesch believes Walmart has the most potential in the grocery ecommerce space. Walmart runs its click-and-collect program in-house, which brought in 38.6% of total click-and-collect sales in 2022. 鈥淲hen you look at what鈥檚 going to be driving digital grocery growth over the next couple of years, a lot of it is coming from sales growth and click and collect, not delivery.

Though less impressive in comparison, we forecast Kroger鈥檚 grocery ecommerce sales will represent only 12% of total company sales this year, meaning there鈥檚 plenty of room to grow. Instacart: Will this be the year that Instacart goes public? It鈥檚 a strong possibility considering the company鈥檚 success in Q4 2022, during which it grew revenues more than 50% YoY and gross profits by more than 80%.

While Walmart can use its famous everyday great savings to attract grocery shoppers, it needs to adopt other strategies to keep them in the fold. Loyally flushed: Walmart+ is vital for maintaining loyalty. As of December 2022, 23% of respondents subscribed to Walmart+, according to an Insider Intelligence and Bizrate Insights survey.

In both countries, grocery ecommerce sales growth will hit 7% in 2023鈥攈igher than that of any other category. By contrast, fashion is losing share of ecommerce in France as shoppers reduce nonessential purchases. Retailers should invest in digital technology to improve customer experience (CX) and boost retail media capabilities.

As a primary entry point for online grocery shopping and partner to retailers like Walmart and Kroger, Instacart has traffic volume from high-intent online grocery shoppers that performs well for CPG brands. Amazon鈥檚 digital traffic dominance will be difficult to dethrone, but omnichannel RMNs have an in-store advantage.

Having plummeted in 2022 as people returned to physical stores, grocery ecommerce will outpace non-ecommerce this year. Digital growth will remain lower than pre-pandemic levels. Online grocer Ocado reported shoppers have reduced basket sizes to stick to their budgets. The rise of Aldi and Lidl is also tempering online sales.

The stat: 44% of US grocery shoppers prefer to pay via self-checkout, according to an April 2023 survey from Progressive Grocer and RIS News. Some 39% prefer a traditional checkout experience, while only 10% prefer a just walk out cashierless experience. What it means: Self-checkout is table stakes for retailers who want to provide shoppers with a seamless, customizable experience.

One category rules them all: The future of retail media is tied distinctly to grocery and grocery ecommerce, according to Lipsman. All of the top 13 retail media networks used by brands (identified in a survey by the Association of National Advertisers) sell groceries and/or consumer packaged goods.

The key stat: Over half (53%) of US retailers expect private labels to be their No. 1 growth driver in 2024, according to an October 2023 survey from NIQ and Advantage Solutions. 53% of US grocery shoppers consider a store鈥檚 private label brand quality when choosing where to shop, according to a January 2024 survey from Progressive Grocer.

In 2023, grocery ecommerce sales will increase by 14.8% (to $160.91 billion), outpacing overall ecommerce, which will increase by just 10.5%. By 2024, 60.2% of all click-and-collect sales will be groceries. Delivery still rules, though, as click and collect will only make up roughly 35% of digital grocery sales this year and next year. To see the full forecast, click here. Prediction.

This year, we forecast Kroger鈥檚 grocery ecommerce sales will grow 14.7% YoY, reaching $15.85 billion. As this only represents 12.0% of the company鈥檚 total sales, there鈥檚 plenty of room for Kroger to grow. To ensure success, Kroger will need to raise awareness and compete for market share in areas where consumers may not be familiar with the brand, said Droesch.

The lines between the digital and physical worlds have blurred as consumers shift fluidly between shopping in-store and online. 27% of consumers say they鈥檒l increase the amount of online grocery shopping they do in 2024, while 9% say they鈥檙e planning to do less, per 84.51藲.

Walmart will see strong growth as it continues to ride the grocery ecommerce wave, absorb consumers who are trading down, and benefit from its expanding ecommerce marketplace. Apple will also see above-average gains at 15.5%, as consumers flock to upgrade to the iPhone 15 in what is expected to be a 鈥渕ini supercycle鈥� for the popular smartphone manufacturer. Retailers will see uneven ecommerce gains.

For example, Walmart鈥檚 Oreo partnership that offered a limited-edition flavor exclusively to Walmart+ members made a direct appeal to grocery shoppers, with a focus on families and young adults. Grocers and cosmetics retailers can also implement free sampling programs. Sources. Bizrate Insights.

But the majority of grocery shoppers at this point from this survey are omnichannel shoppers. When you look at Gen Z, 90% of digital grocery shoppers obviously also shopped in store. It was a very small single digit percentage across the board of people who are online only shoppers.

Tesco鈥檚 newest venture takes aim at Ocado: The UK grocer鈥檚 Transcend Retail Solutions division aims to help international supermarket chains develop their ecommerce operations.

Instacart launches new ad formats to help CPGs drive impulse purchases: The delivery platform will roll out shoppable recipes, occasions, and bundles to facilitate discovery and boost brand engagement.

Even the most frequent digital grocery buyers (defined as those who make more than one online purchase per month) purchase groceries both in stores and online. But they are more likely to purchase perishables online and forgo buying certain categories in stores.

The future of ecommerce is grocery. Historically, three categories led the US ecommerce market: apparel and accessories, computer and consumer electronics, and furniture and home furnishings. But in recent years, growth has been fueled by essential goods, including food and beverage items, personal care products, and household supplies. This shift will take grocery to the top of the four major ecommerce categories by 2026.

Younger generations are more likely to discover new grocery products via social media and search engines.