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Traditional in-store activations tied to events like Black Friday are becoming increasingly crowded and predictable. To connect more meaningfully with consumers, brands are rethinking the retail calendar to engage shoppers year-round.

Holiday sales forecasts range between 2% and 4.8%: That variation reflects an unusual environment shaped by lingering inflation, potential interest rate cuts, and a volatile election season.

Ecommerce sales will return to double-digit growth this holiday season amid a backdrop of healthy consumer spending.

Still, the retailer will account for just 8.1% of total ecommerce sales this holiday season to Amazon鈥檚 42.1%, giving it significant runway for growth. Go further: Read our US Holiday Shopping 2024 report and our US Holiday Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q4 2024.

Gen Zers are more than twice (42%) as likely than the average (20%) to buy holiday gifts directly through social media in 2024, according to May 2024 research from Basis Technologies and GWI.

Alibaba touts early Singles Day successes: Apple, lululemon, and Nike were among the biggest beneficiaries as price-conscious shoppers took advantage of steep discounts and other promotions.

Our take: Despite some initial concerns that the presidential election and other world events could derail consumer spending, Amazon now expects holiday sales to be robust this year鈥攁n attitude which corresponds with our own holiday forecast.

Heavy discounting was necessary to drive holiday sales. Inventory buildup to avoid supply disruptions shaved holiday profits as well. Amazon's holiday shopping season was "the most successful yet," according to CEO Andy Jassy, with Q4 net sales jumping 10% YoY to $187.8 billion. Profitability surged with net income nearly doubling YoY to $20 billion.

Toy retail ecommerce sales growth will grow 5.4% YoY this holiday season. Toy sales will gain steam as value-focused consumers find deals throughout the holiday season, which began in early October when retail giants including Amazon, Target, and Walmart launched major sales. Click here to view our full forecast for US holiday retail ecommerce sales growth, by product category.

In an industry that depends on predictable costs and supply chains, the current tariff regime continues to be a destabilizing force, particularly at a time when merchants need to be thinking about the holiday season. Go further: Read our report, Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.

Consumers are turning to their TVs for holiday inspiration: 43% of connected TV (CTV) users say TV ads offer useful information on holiday shopping, and 72% would scan a QR code in a TV ad to make a purchase, according to a report from LG Ad Solutions.

GenAI for holiday shoppers: Traffic from genAI sources spiked during crucial online shopping moments. It grew 1,950% YoY on Cyber Monday and spiked 1,300% YoY between November 1 and December 1. Our take: GenAI鈥檚 popularity for recommendations and planning shows consumers are willing to trust its guidance and knowledge to narrow down decisions.

The news: Nordstrom delivered strong results over the 2024 holiday season in what is likely to be its final Q4 as a public company. Net sales, after accounting for last year鈥檚 extra week, rose 2.5% YoY, and comparable sales rose 4.7%鈥攚ell ahead of analysts鈥� estimated 1.25%.

Costco鈥檚 growth in February and during the holiday season reflects its unique ability to attract both cost-conscious shoppers seeking the best deals, and high-income shoppers willing to splurge on pinball machines and gold bullion.

Consumer spending has been resilient this year, leading to a fairly positive outlook for the holiday season. Online shopping is more prevalent during the holidays: Ecommerce sales will grow 9.5% during the holiday season, compared with 8.7% for full-year 2024. Amazon's competitors are struggling to keep up. But the ecommerce giant won't be able to outpace the market forever.

Our take: With nearly every retailer鈥攊ncluding Target鈥攍aunching sales in early October, it is easy to lose sight of the Cyber 5鈥檚 outsize share of overall holiday sales.

鈥淥ne of the most interesting things we saw during the holiday season was indoor mall visitation very often outpacing anchor tenants within those same malls,鈥� Chernofsky said. Visits to malls and dwell times were up this past holiday season, per Placer.ai. Movement of people from cities to suburbs during the pandemic resulted in more demand for malls, according to Chernofsky.

The quarterly drop is especially noteworthy because payment volume typically ticks up in Q4 as consumers ramp up holiday shopping. Cash App鈥檚 total inflows increased 14% YoY for the full year, down from 22% growth in 2023.