蘑菇AV

The experiential stores aim to reposition the brand from a place to buy holiday gifts to a year-round destination. Our take: Retailers are growing more cautious as the Trump administration鈥檚 policies drive up costs and prompt consumers to tighten their spending鈥攆actors that are likely to make merchants more hesitant to take risks on opening new stores.

A truncated holiday spending period with fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas and the election will throw a curveball to retail sales this season, our analyst Sky Canaves said on an episode of the 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast. In-store retail will see healthy growth, consumers will continue holding back on splurges, and mobile will uplift overall ecommerce. Here are three trends we鈥檙e predicting for the upcoming holiday season.

Temu and Shein鈥檚 strategy: The two Chinese retailers are fiercely competing while also trying to drive a lucrative holiday shopping season ahead of political changes that could significantly alter their US businesses. The incoming Trump administration has proposed increasing tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%.

GenAI for holiday shoppers: Traffic from genAI sources spiked during crucial online shopping moments. It grew 1,950% YoY on Cyber Monday and spiked 1,300% YoY between November 1 and December 1. Our take: GenAI鈥檚 popularity for recommendations and planning shows consumers are willing to trust its guidance and knowledge to narrow down decisions.

The 2024 holiday season is forecasted to top $1.353 trillion, according to 蘑菇AV. To thrive in this high-stakes period, businesses must embrace opportunities like AI-driven personalization, seamless payment options, and the longer gift-buying season.

The 2022 holiday season鈥檚 solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.

Consumer spending has been resilient this year, leading to a fairly positive outlook for the holiday season. Online shopping is more prevalent during the holidays: Ecommerce sales will grow 9.5% during the holiday season, compared with 8.7% for full-year 2024. Amazon's competitors are struggling to keep up. But the ecommerce giant won't be able to outpace the market forever.

Our take: While US retailers entered the year on relatively solid footing following a strong holiday season, they鈥檝e quickly found themselves on shaky ground. The chaotic and fast-changing nature of the Trump administration鈥檚 policies has made medium-term planning difficult鈥攁nd long-term planning nearly impossible.

Ecommerce spending in particular is expected to be robust this holiday season: UK shoppers are forecast to spend a record 拢29.5 billion ($36.7 billion) online in November and December, up 6.1% YoY, per Adobe. That鈥檚 the strongest growth since 2020.

In November, retailers made strategic moves across grocery, apparel, and beauty. Amazon turned Black Friday into a weeklong event and launched its Shein competitor, Haul. Meanwhile, e.l.f. Beauty strengthened its value proposition through a new Dollar General partnership, while Kroger announced plans for specialized Asian experience stores in North Texas. Here are our eight unofficial picks for the most interesting retailers in November.

Amazon Prime Day 2023 will drive a surge of activity for Amazon, competing retailers, and brands looking to generate a sales boost before the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

Heavy discounting was necessary to drive holiday sales. Inventory buildup to avoid supply disruptions shaved holiday profits as well. Amazon's holiday shopping season was "the most successful yet," according to CEO Andy Jassy, with Q4 net sales jumping 10% YoY to $187.8 billion. Profitability surged with net income nearly doubling YoY to $20 billion.

The quarterly drop is especially noteworthy because payment volume typically ticks up in Q4 as consumers ramp up holiday shopping. Cash App鈥檚 total inflows increased 14% YoY for the full year, down from 22% growth in 2023.

Deal-seeking by consumers, heavy discounting from retailers, and a longer holiday shopping season drove an uptick in returns during the 2022 holiday season. Retailers will need to plan their promotional calendars carefully to manage returns in 2023.

This year, US holiday sales will reach a record $1.353 trillion, per our July 2024 forecast. That holiday season is starting earlier and earlier, which means marketers need to be prepared now for shopping to pick up in September and October. The election and consumer concerns about the economy will complicate where advertisers reach consumers and what messaging they use. Here are five stats marketers should see as they prep their holiday campaigns.

Apple stores nationwide saw weekend traffic rivaling the holiday shopping season, with many shoppers asking if prices would rise, per Bloomberg. Panic-buying reveals real-time consumer sentiment and market sensitivity to shifting economic trends.

During the season of giving, one gift that retailers can truly bank on is partnership marketing. Partnerships not only provide a host of benefits like extended reach and enhanced credibility, they can also make the holiday season considerably more profitable.

Gift cards are also propping up prepaid card spend, especially during the holiday season. More than half (56%) of consumers said they purchased a gift card during the 2024 holiday season, an 8% increase from the prior year, per a Blackhawk Network survey. Younger generations鈥� love of digital gift cards helped drive this growth: 60% of Gen Zers purchased a digital gift card over the holiday season.

Shoppers made a record number of Amazon purchases this holiday season: Strong consumer spending coupled with momentum in its ad business helped propel Amazon鈥檚 earnings well past expectations.

Costco鈥檚 growth in February and during the holiday season reflects its unique ability to attract both cost-conscious shoppers seeking the best deals, and high-income shoppers willing to splurge on pinball machines and gold bullion.

The news: Nordstrom delivered strong results over the 2024 holiday season in what is likely to be its final Q4 as a public company. Net sales, after accounting for last year鈥檚 extra week, rose 2.5% YoY, and comparable sales rose 4.7%鈥攚ell ahead of analysts鈥� estimated 1.25%.