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Indonesia is an emerging digital economy star across many metrics, including sub OTT. Indonesia has become a hotbed for ecommerce and social media, and sub OTT has momentum in Southeast Asia’s largest market as well. In 2024, the country will post the world’s fastest sub OTT viewer growth among the countries that we break out.

India is slowly climbing the list, and Brazil and Indonesia are jockeying for 10th place. Besides those standouts, the story has not changed much in recent years—and won’t change much going forward. Our country-level forecasts now cover 97.6% of global ecommerce sales.

TikTok may choose to launch a standalone ecommerce app in Indonesia. Introducing a separate online shopping platform may revive its ecommerce business in the country. But the user experience will not be as seamless, leading to losses in sales opportunities. Total retail ecommerce sales will lose momentum, thanks to the social commerce ban.

Asia-Pacific remained a global hotspot in 2023, with six of the top 10 fastest-growing retail ecommerce markets worldwide. In particular, China's online shopping market showed signs of resiliency, with growth rates in the double digits.

The most noteworthy holdouts still favoring traditional ad spending are Japan, Italy, India, and Indonesia. To view the full forecast, click here. China’s embrace of all things digital remains unmatched. Just as China leads the world in ecommerce as a share of overall retail, it also leads in digital advertising as a share of total media advertising.

India will leapfrog Germany in the digital sales rankings this year, and Indonesia is also surging. The top five countries for total ecommerce sales have not changed in a while, but the bottom half of the top 10 tends to fluctuate. This year, India will move one spot up and Indonesia will leap two spots to No. 8.

Indonesia is by far the most developed online shopping market in the region. There, ecommerce will account for 28.8% of total retail sales in 2023—a metric for which it ranks third globally. Retail ecommerce sales in Indonesia will account for 68.5% of the region’s total this year. Shopee is leading the ecommerce competition in Indonesia.

India and Indonesia are the big countries still in high-growth mode. Indonesia is set to cross $100 billion next year, at which point it will be the seventh largest ecommerce market in the world. India will enter the top five by 2026. The US is quietly in line for a good year. Among advanced economies, only the US and South Korea will produce double-digit ecommerce sales growth in 2023.

Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam will collectively account for about half of all TikTok users in Asia-Pacific (excluding China). And except for Singapore, all will see over 10% growth in TikTok users this year. Indonesia will retain its position as the country with the third-largest number of TikTok users, behind only the US and Brazil.

Indonesia is the driving force. It accounts for about 70% of Southeast Asia’s ecommerce sales—and its share has been increasing year by year. As a result, Indonesia has an outsize influence on Southeast Asia’s figures. Indonesia also skews ecommerce’s share of retail. Aside from Indonesia and Singapore, ecommerce makes up a small share of total retail sales in Southeast Asian countries.

Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand will lead the way. The two countries that lead the region in total spending will also lead it in digital ad spending growth. Given their relative sizes, Indonesia underspends on advertising, and Singapore overspends. Indonesia is the overwhelming leader in the region when it comes to ecommerce and other digital activities.

Project S, a TikTok initiative to promote and sell products made popular by viral videos, has raised red flags among lawmakers in Indonesia. Lawmakers have expressed concerns that the initiative could decimate local small and medium-sized businesses if ByteDance were to fulfill many of these orders via China-based suppliers.

India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are just a few of note. Digital advertisers would do well to pay close attention to these markets.

In 2023, mcommerce will account for 18.2% of retail sales, putting the country on par with mobile-first markets like South Korea and Indonesia, and significantly ahead of the US and the rest of Europe. Mobile is defying the slump in online sales.