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The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The news: Skims, the shapewear brand founded by Kim Kardashian, is on an expansion tear as it nears $1 billion in annual sales, per Business of Fashion. The company plans to open 16 stores in the US this year, bringing its total domestic footprint to 22. Over the next nine months, Skims expects to establish itself in seven new markets—including stores in Mexico, London, and Dubai. Our take: While stores are hugely important to Skims’ growth, the company has several advantages over the rest of the D2C field. Unlike most other D2C companies, Skims doesn’t need to rely on its stores as billboards given its high-profile founder, who is also a fixture of its ad campaigns. Its partnership with Nike will give it access to an even larger audience and smooth its entry into the athleisure category—assuming production delays don’t get in the way. The launch will also considerably increase Skims’ retail presence without needing to invest in premium real estate.