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Short-term solutions: While the Trump administration鈥檚 trade policies aim to push companies toward onshoring, moving production to the US鈥攐r even nearshoring to Canada or Mexico鈥攊s often slow and costly. In the near term, companies are exploring faster, less labor-intensive options:.

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): This agreement includes Canada and 10 other countries: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. For Canada, a key benefit is access to the Japanese automotive market for parts and its consumer market for beef and pork exports.

In Latin America, video is the cornerstone of digital ad spending, particularly in Mexico where it was 48.9% of overall digital ad spending. Retail media growth: Retail media is a desirable platform for advertisers due to its direct access to consumers, first-party data and omnichannel reach.

Merck CEO Rob Davis estimated $200 million in added costs for existing tariffs鈥攎ostly via China, but also Canada and Mexico trade. Roche is mitigating tariff effects for the year by moving inventories and increasing US manufacturing, CEO Thomas Schinnicker said. It鈥檚 also negotiating for tariff exemptions directly with the Trump administration, arguing its US exports offset its imports, per Reuters.

Mexico and Canada were excluded from this round but still face existing tariffs on key sectors, including a 25% duty on vehicle imports. Per Foreign Policy and AS/COA reporting, some countries that aligned diplomatically with Washington鈥攕uch as Argentina鈥攄id not benefit from preferential treatment.

It鈥檚 opening a community center on the US-Mexico border and creating financial handbooks for migrants.

Emerging manufacturing hubs like Vietnam and India face tariffs of 46% and 27%, respectively, while nearshoring destinations like Mexico are also caught in the crosshairs. The auto industry is in trouble: Auto companies, both foreign and domestic, will be hit hard by Trump鈥檚 trade wars. Already, tariffs are having significant repercussions for companies, workers, and consumers.

For now, Canada and Mexico are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, but they鈥檙e not in the clear. Both countries are still subject to the 25% tariffs imposed last month over their alleged failures to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking, although those are paused for now on USMCA-compliant goods.

Amazon鈥檚 shares in other countries that we forecast are lower: 13.5% in the US, 10.1% in France, 9.3% in the UK, 5.0% in Mexico, and 1.4% in Brazil. The high share in Canada reflects the limited retail media competition from domestic publishers initially. But companies like Loblaw and Canadian Tire are now making large investments in retail media.

Trump鈥檚 initial round of tariffs singled out Mexico, Canada, and China, California鈥檚 three largest trading partners. Over 40% of imports to the state originated from those countries last year, and the three nations took in over one-third of California鈥檚 exports.

Mercado Libre鈥檚 rollout of video ads on Mercado Play and Amazon鈥檚 ad-supported Prime Video launch in Mexico and Brazil reflect a broader shift underway: Retail media is increasingly becoming a full-funnel marketing channel that supports both performance and branding objectives.

Unsurprisingly, consumers in Canada (down 44 points) and Mexico (down 32 points) are particularly disgruntled鈥攂ut so too are those in South Korea (down 38 points), France (down 33 points), and Brazil (down 19 points).

Target CEO Brian Cornell also warned in a March interview with CNBC that Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada would likely result in higher produce prices. Amazon鈥檚 perspective: While Amazon is doing 鈥渆verything we can鈥� to keep prices low, third-party sellers are likely to pass tariff costs onto consumers, CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC.

Our take: Bank of America鈥檚 and Citi鈥檚 earnings were steady in Q1 despite the larger uncertain economic environment that started in March with President Donald Trump鈥檚 threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico. But both issuers agree that these results may not repeat themselves in the coming quarters.

Some German car manufacturers, such as BMW, have US production sites, although they import parts from Canada and Mexico. Others, including Ferrari and Porsche, import all cars sold in the US from Europe, per March 2025 analysis by ING. Italy and France round out the top tier of at-risk economies, thanks to their exports of luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and food and beverage.

Amazon will capture more than half (51.1%) of all retail ecommerce sales in Germany this year, according to our forecast. Canada will have the second-highest share of Amazon ecommerce sales among the countries we track, at 41.5%, followed by the US, UK, Japan, and Mexico.

Trade challenge: The US trade office has challenged the tax, claiming it is discriminatory to US firms and violates the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The 2025 federal election: Polls strongly indicate the election will unseat the Liberal government, which enacted the tax, in favor of the Conservative Party. Retail media will benefit from emerging formats.

But some tariffs, including those on steel and aluminum, have been implemented and expanded to include more countries than China, Mexico, and Canada. If those tariffs cause prices of consumer goods to rise or if economic uncertainty makes consumers reluctant to spend, US marketing budgets could come under threat. Nonessential goods would be the first to go.

Trade wars with Canada, China, and Mexico threaten to dampen demand for home projects while simultaneously fueling inflation鈥攚hich could trigger steeper interest rates. With no immediate housing relief in sight, retailers are shifting gears. These strategic moves could position all three companies for long-term growth once the market rebounds.

The in-app shopping feature went live in Spain and Ireland late last year and launched in Mexico last month. It became available in the UK in 2021. Operations under pressure: This move comes as TikTok Shop is feeling the heat from ByteDance after failing to meet its 2024 sales goals, with staff facing new pressures to improve performance, per a Business Insider report.

They are already sparking layoffs: Stellantis is cutting 900 jobs and pausing production in Canada and Mexico. A big bite out of Apple: In 2023, Apple started accelerating production in India and Vietnam to reduce reliance on China. With those regions no longer serving as viable tariff workarounds, Apple鈥檚 cost mitigation options are narrowing quickly.

Mexico and the US came next, at 34.0% and 33.9%, respectively. Voice commands are often more convenient than the laborious inputting of characters in local languages on devices, potentially helping to drive adoption. Some 26.2% of respondents watched influencer videos or vlogs, ranking China No. 9 globally in this metric.

鈥淯S President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariffs will reshape more than a trillion dollars in trade between the world鈥檚 largest economy and Latin America, with key partners like Mexico and Brazil at the center of the discussion,鈥� said our analyst Matteo Ceurvels. US-based brands selling in Latin America may see a significant competitive disadvantage compared to companies from countries.

However, among the countries where US-based retailers are likely to operate, Mexico will be the hottest growth market for ecommerce through 2028. Index of Benchmarks. Below are links to each of the seven decks that comprise this series, covering US total retail, ecommerce, holiday, Amazon, grocery, apparel, footwear, and accessories, and worldwide retail context.