蘑菇AV

his year, just over a quarter (26.7%) of all search ad dollars will be spent on retailer and retailer-affiliated properties. Over the next few years, retail media will account for more new search ad dollars, and by 2027 it will represent well over a third (37.2%) of the market

Retail media is outpacing non-retail media in growth in US search ad spend. As performance-driven advertisers push closer to the point of sale, companies like Amazon benefit. Here鈥檚 what鈥檚 behind retail media鈥檚 search success.

蘑菇AV鈥檚 moderate tariff scenario suggests US search ad spending will grow 6.9% this year, below our initial forecast but far from a death blow to the sector. Google鈥檚 growth arc may be flattening under the weight of competitive and regulatory pressures. Alphabet reported $66.9 billion in ad revenues for Q1 2025, up 8.4% year over year, beating expectations.

We expect search ad spend to range from $133 billion to $143 billion in 2025, with a moderate tariffs scenario of $138 billion. The heavy tariffs scenario is a 7.1% reduction versus the limited tariffs scenario (the limited scenario corresponds to our existing forecast). Search generally outperforms most channels during economic headwinds, thanks to its clear intent signals and measurable ROI.

Retail media will reach $60.81 billion in 2025鈥攁dding more new dollars than Meta and Alphabet combined鈥攁nd brands now rank incrementality as a top KPI. In this interview, Tinuiti鈥檚 Elizabeth Marsten lays out how to prove incremental sales, pick smarter tools, and keep measurement future-ready.

鈥淕oogle will account for over half of search ad spending this year, but Google's not the perfect fit for every query that every person could ever ask,鈥� our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf said on a recent 蘑菇AV webinar. 鈥淚t never has been, and now consumers are also going elsewhere to satisfy their search needs.鈥�

70.5% of US traditional search ad spend will go to Google in 2026, according to our March 2024 forecast.

Amazon will pull in over 80% of US retail media search dollars this year, per our forecast. But Walmart will continue growing its share of non-Amazon retail media search ad spending over the next two years.

We forecast that Google鈥檚 worldwide search ad revenues will total $175.11 billion this year, accounting for 55.3% of total search ad spending. Microsoft, by comparison, will have worldwide search ad revenues of $9.21 billion, or just under 3% of total search ad spend. That gap emphasizes just how big of a lead Google has over competitors after several decades of being synonymous with internet search.

Digital ad spend is growing and going increasingly toward programmatic formats. Search ad spend is on the rise as well, as retail media growth remains healthy. And social media is in better shape than previously projected. Here are five recent charts forecasting the future of ad spend.

Key stat: Google鈥檚 share of US nonretail search ad spend has declined since 2021, when the company saw $57.49 billion in US search ad revenues, according to our forecast. Among Google鈥檚 rivals outside of retail, both Microsoft and Apple are growing their search revenues faster.

Amazon sees 18% YoY growth in ad services: While economic headwinds could slow growth, maintaining a presence on Amazon will help advertisers emerge stronger.

TikTok is competing with just about everyone, according to our analyst Jasmine Enberg. Its lower costs per thousand are helping it pull ad share away from platforms like Meta, while its appeal to Gen Z consumers is pulling search dollars away from Google and Amazon. But it can play nice too, a strategy the platform has had to adopt in Washington to avoid a total US ban.

Google is expected to maintain over 72% of all US search ad spending by 2026, increasing from 71.7% in 2025, while Microsoft holds just 7.7%. YouTube鈥檚 strong ad performance suggests brands should continue prioritizing video content, while Google鈥檚 AI-powered search tools could change how marketers approach paid search and SEO strategies.

Total search spend will reach $12.42 billion in 2024, the fourth highest across all the sectors we cover. Spending is up 10.7% YoY and over 179% since 2018. But spending growth will slow to 4.7% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, when it will hit $13.77 billion.

While the remedy and any appeals are pending, Google will continue to account for the majority of traditional search ad dollars. Predictions. Google Search will be barred from striking exclusive distribution agreements with device manufacturers and browsers. But when presented with a choice of several search engines, most US consumers will stick with Google out of familiarity.

Under our high-tariff scenario (i.e., full implementation of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2), we forecast social ad spending growth of just 1.5% in 2025 and search ad spending growth of 3.1%, versus our previous estimates of 12.8% and 11.0% growth, respectively. Sources. Earnest Analytics. Numerator. Omnisend. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Sensor Tower.

Click here to view our full forecast for US financial services industry search ad spending. And Google is trying to embed itself deeper in the credit card acquisition pipeline. It鈥檚 piloting a search widget that lets users compare the rates and rewards of different credit cards.

Key Stat: Traditional search ad spending growth will slow to just 0.9% YoY in 2028, while advertisers will continue to ramp up retail media search investment. Executive Summary. Retail media will fuel growth in search ad spending over the next few years.