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The insight: Amazon is trying to make a bigger name for itself in the luxury sphere鈥攁 strategy that could help soften the blow from tariffs. Our take: That designer brands and retailers are eager to partner with Amazon despite its mixed track record in luxury shows the state of the industry, which is under serious pressure as economic uncertainty saps even affluent consumers鈥� desire to shop. Amazon鈥檚 extensive reach鈥攖hree-quarters of US households are Prime users, per our forecast鈥攁nd ability to drive spending even in times of volatility are making it an increasingly valuable partner for any brand looking to drive sales in an unsettled environment.

In the first half of 2025, tariffs rattled retailers, consumer trust wavered in the face of muted DEI efforts, and fast-fashion platforms like Shein and Temu braced for policy whiplash. Meanwhile, private label products surged in popularity, and the retail world took a closer look at generative AI鈥攏ot just for buzz, but for tangible impact across the shopper journey. Here are the top stories from H1 2025 and why they matter for the rest of the year.

Cross-border buyer numbers are rising in Europe as shoppers seek value and variety鈥攂ut consumer expectations and regulatory changes could challenge future growth.

The news: Spirit Halloween canceled its annual kickoff event due to 鈥渋nternational disruptions and supply chain challenges,鈥� it said in a social media post. Our take: While the retailer did not directly cite tariffs, it is the latest warning sign that President Donald Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� duties could result in emptier shelves during key shopping seasons.

Dollar General benefits from 鈥渢rade-in鈥� behavior among wealthier shoppers: The retailer boosted its outlook as discretionary spending from higher-income consumers offset lower-income caution.

The trend: Walmart has begun rolling out 鈥淪ummer Frights鈥� Halloween displays in about 1,000 stores across the US, featuring quirky early-season items like watermelon jack-o鈥�-lanterns and ghost plushies in Hawaiian shirts. Our take: Walmart is smart to embrace offbeat retail moments like Summerween. While consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, they continue to splurge on seasonal celebrations like Halloween and the holidays. Halloween alone has become a major retail event, with spending hitting $11.6 billion last year鈥攁 31.8% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets鈥攅ven if they鈥檙e feeling spooked by the economy.

The news: Lululemon is suing Costco for selling dupes. In a lawsuit filed June 25, the athleisure brand accuses the wholesale giant of infringing on its design patents by selling knockoff sweatshirts, jackets, and other activewear. Lululemon seeks an immediate halt to sales of the disputed products and unspecified monetary damages. Our take: For nearly as long as there have been name brands, there have been knockoffs. But the rise of dupe culture on TikTok鈥攃ombined with increasingly cost-conscious consumers looking鈥攊s pushing more shoppers toward cheaper alternatives and more brands to the brink. It's become a growing headache for companies like Est茅e Lauder, which have struggled as buyers opt for low-priced lookalikes. Lululemon鈥檚 lawsuit marks a significant escalation in the brand鈥檚 efforts to protect its designs. If it succeeds, it could set a precedent鈥攁nd signal that the era of unchecked dupes may be nearing a turning point.

The news: Pinterest will host high-performing influencer content posted on affiliate shopping platform LTK, automatically bringing popular images from the platform to Pinterest, according to The Verge. Pinterest also hired Chip Jessopp, former Amazon director of global accounts and ad tech sales, as head of programmatic, per Digiday. Jessopp will help Pinterest create new demand channels while scaling its programmatic abilities. Our take: Pinterest鈥檚 moves could better position it as a legitimate competitor in digital advertising and a promising growth area for influencers and marketers鈥攇iving the platform more legs against social commerce giants like Meta and TikTok.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth鈥攏amely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs鈥攁re no longer in place.

The news: Michaels is getting a head start on the spooky season. The arts and crafts retailer began stocking its shelves with Halloween merchandise this past Friday, marking its earliest-ever rollout of themed items. Our take: Michaels is betting that even as consumers pull back on discretionary purchases, they鈥檒l keep splurging on Instagram-worthy seasonal d茅cor鈥攅specially if they can get it first. From black rose wreaths to candy-colored pumpkins and disco-themed skeletons, the early drop positions Michaels to win over shoppers eager to get a head start on Halloween.

The news: US inflation ticked up 0.1% last month and 2.4% YoY, a softer read than many economists expected but one that kept the pressure on consumers already dealing with a higher cost of living. Our take: Retailers, especially grocers and discounters, can set themselves apart by helping consumers save money and be more financially responsible. Offering digital coupons, using in-store signage spotlighting sales on daily essentials, and rewarding loyal shoppers for repeat purchases can foster smarter spending.

The situation: Low-income Americans are feeling squeezed by high prices, declining pay, and public assistance that doesn鈥檛 go far enough. Bottom line: Declining after-tax income and tariff-driven inflation mean relief for low-income Americans is unlikely anytime soon. Their budgets will tighten, shrinking grocery baskets and curbing discretionary spending. While Walmart, Dollar General, and other value retailers are currently propped up by higher-income shoppers, that cushion could quickly disappear if those customers expect tax-cut windfalls and return to old spending habits.

The situation: Several recent macroeconomic indicators point to a tough and increasingly uncertain economic environment. Our take: Uncertainty has cast a long shadow over the retail industry all year鈥攁nd clearer skies aren鈥檛 on the horizon. Retailers trying to weather the economic storm must focus on delivering compelling value to cost-conscious consumers. That means leaning into what makes their brand stand out, whether it鈥檚 quality, service, loyalty perks, or meaningful innovation. With nearly a quarter of shoppers adjusting their budgets as they tighten their purse strings鈥攁nd retail sales expected to rise just 1.5% YoY this year鈥攄ifferentiation is more important than ever.

Australia鈥檚 digital landscape is evolving fast, driven by shifting consumer behaviors, increasing ecommerce adoption, and changing media habits. Recent data reveals trends shaping digital spending, retail sales, and more.

The news: Early Warning Services partnered with Fiserv to expand Paze acceptance through its merchant network. Our take: Paze now needs to convince users to reflexively flip between two wallets for ecommerce and in-person transactions. Converting primary loyalty to either Apple Wallet鈥檚 18.1 million users or Google Wallet鈥檚 12.4 million users will be a tough consumer behavior to build. But as deals with its new expanded merchant network solidify, Paze is still primed for steady growth.

The milestone: Amazon recently deployed its 1 millionth robot in its fulfillment centers鈥攁 figure approaching the number of human workers at those facilities. Our take: Automation is a central element within Amazon鈥檚 relentless push to narrow the gap between click and doorstep. Fast delivery isn鈥檛 just about convenience; it transforms how consumers shop. The faster Amazon gets everyday essentials like toothpaste into customers鈥� hands鈥攅specially with free delivery for Prime members鈥攖he harder it becomes for other retailers to compete. That gives Amazon a durable edge as it looks to expand its share of US ecommerce sales.

The news: Consumers are increasingly taking brands鈥� values into account when they shop, according to a survey by the Kearney Consumer Institute. Our take: Brands can take solace in knowing that while consumers are increasingly using their spending to make a political statement, product quality, pricing, and reliability still matter. Cost concerns can outweigh dissatisfaction with retailers鈥� policies. But companies that stay true to their values have the opportunity to win lasting loyalty.

The news: Lululemon beat earnings expectations and met revenue forecasts in Q1, but softening demand in its core Americas market cast a shadow over the results. Our take: Even premium brands aren鈥檛 immune to macro pressures. As consumers grow increasingly cost-conscious, discretionary purchases鈥攅specially those with big price tags鈥攁re easy for consumers to postpone. Lululemon鈥檚 challenge now is not just product innovation, but convincing shoppers its value proposition is worth the premium.