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Proportionally, only China will see more ad dollars assigned to digital channels this year鈥�84.7% versus 82.6%. This is due to high digital adoption among consumers as well as a traditional media environment that has been less open to advertisers thanks to the influence of the ad-free BBC. And it has maintained a brisk pace in the ramp-up in digital spending.

Tariffs on China could have an outsize impact on Meta鈥檚 revenues. The country represented about 11% of Meta鈥檚 ad spending, and top advertiser Temu has already started pulling back spending. MoffettNathanson forecast a $7 billion advertising income loss for Meta this year due to tariffs, per CNBC. That potential hit means Meta needs to cut losses elsewhere.

Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.

The German auto industry faces economic challenges and competition from Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). But German brands are increasing their local ad spend to attract domestic buyers. Travel, retail, and CPG are seeing the fastest growth in digital ad spending. Travel is continuing to recover, with double-digit growth.

Amazon remains the retail media leader, but Chinese competitors are rising. A busy calendar of sales events has driven hefty ad spending from merchants, but costs are driving merchants to experiment with Temu and others. Search giants post strong AI-driven growth, but Google's market grip may be loosening. Google's search advertising empire continues to expand.

Even without the uncertain outlook for US electric vehicles, proposed tariffs on imports and materials from China, Canada, and Mexico could cause auto prices to rise significantly, complicating an already challenging environment for auto sales. We expect US automotive total media ad spend to hit $31.77 billion this year, up from $29.48 billion in 2024.