蘑菇AV

We forecast programmatic display ad spending for six major markets: Canada, China, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. Programmatic display ad spending will grow the fastest in Western European countries this year. These markets are regaining momentum after inflation and an energy crisis depressed ad spending growth in 2022 and 2023.

UK brands running "dull" advertising need to spend an additional 拢13 billion (about 拢10 million per campaign) to match the performance of emotionally engaging, creative approaches. In the US, this figure balloons to a staggering $189 billion in wasted media spend.

Global B2B digital ad spending to reach $48 billion by 2026: Growth driven by digital adoption and emerging market expansion.

The threat of recession is holding back digital ad spending in Germany, particularly in influential industries like automotive. If the worst case can be avoided, though, 2024 offers promising signs for growth.

Digital ad spending will increase slightly faster this year than in 2022, but the bump will be minimal. Total media ad spending growth will roughly hold steady. But there are parts of the world where spending is surging.

We forecast that digital ad spending will rise just 4.5% in Western Europe and 4.9% in the UK this year. The Europe turnaround came even though Facebook lost users in the region in Q2. Daily active users were flat at 307 million, and monthly active users fell to 409 million from 411 million, per Meta data. This was originally featured in the eMarketer Daily newsletter.

Its in-house ad platform, Netflix Ads Suite, is now available in all ad-supported markets, including the US, UK, Japan, Brazil, and Germany. From cautious to confident: Netflix鈥檚 ad chief Amy Reinhard said the company is moving beyond its "crawl, walk, run" approach, signaling it now sees itself as a full-fledged adtech player.

KEY STAT: One-third of UK adults haven鈥檛 used AI due to data privacy concerns, per a March 2023 KPMG survey. Only one other factor鈥攁 preference for human interaction鈥攚as more likely to stop UK adults from using the tech. GDPR fines are increasing鈥攂ut are they significant enough?

After several years of double-digit increases, worldwide digital ad spending saw growth slow to 8.6% in 2022, for a total of $567.49 billion, according to our forecast. This year, growth will rebound to 10.5%, and spend will reach $626.86 billion.

Retail media will account for about 1 in 5 digital ad dollars this year. That鈥檚 about double the share it held in 2020. We expect it to surpass the one-quarter mark by 2028. Retail media ad spending growth in 2025 (19.7%) will be more than double the growth in digital ad spending (8.8%). Over the five-year span leading to 2028, we forecast a 134% gain in the channel overall.

Google and Meta will account for just over 50% of worldwide digital ad spending in 2024, marginally higher than their 47% share in the US market. Amazon鈥檚 share will be much lower (8.8%)鈥攁lthough it will be among the leaders in revenue growth.

The UK is a digital payments leader, though traditional payments provide a backbone. Payment method preferences among different demographic groups are determining the winners and losers.

Digital ad spend will grow the fastest in Latin America this year, with Peru leading the pack, according to our forecast. While Argentina and Chile will also rank high by this measure, none of the three countries will crack the global top 10 for total digital ad spend.

The format will grow its share of digital ad spending much faster in Mexico than anywhere else in the world between 2024 and 2028, per our forecast. At which time, retail media will account for almost a quarter of its digital ad market鈥攁 figure far greater than those from more digitally advanced economies like the UK and France鈥攁nd only 3.6 percentage points behind the US鈥� 28.5% share.

Thanks to Instagram, about 1 in 5 digital ad dollars will still go to Meta this year. But its share of the market peaked in 2020鈥攖he same year the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit against the company to force it to divest Instagram. Google has also made some shrewd acquisitions.

Retail media is the primary channel for incremental digital ad dollars. Retail media is in heavy growth mode at scale. In 2022, retail media made gains on other digital advertising formats like display and search. It also surpassed the Canada TV ad market for the first time. Retail media is the fastest-growing digital ad segment.

Click here to view our full forecast for US digital ad spending, by tariff scenario.

On today鈥檚 podcast, we discuss the 蘑菇AV report, 9 Pivotal Shifts in AI, Regulation, and Advertising That Will Change the Business Landscape. Our analysts will compete in the Great Behind The Numbers Take Off 鈥� Top Trends edition, borrowing from the television show, The Great British Bake Off. In the Take Off, we will talk in-depth about how retail media, social and AI will undercut traditional search and will governments protect children from digital ad giants. Listen to the conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Senior Analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, and Analyst Bill Fisher. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.