蘑菇AV

Key stat: By 2028, in-store retail media spend will reach over $1 billion but will make up less than 1% of total omnichannel retail media ad spending.

Amazon is ditching Just Walk Out in favor of Dash Carts. Not only will the move satisfy customers鈥� desire for familiar technology, but it鈥檚 also creating more ad inventory. Walmart Connect also emphasized its in-store retail media potential last week, with a focus on expanding familiar strategies like sampling and TV screens. This back-to-basics approach might spark more in-store retail media ad spend.

Retail media just got even bigger. We recently updated our US retail media ad spend forecast to show higher growth than previously estimated, culminating in $109.40 billion in spend in 2027.

In-store retail media ad spend will reach $1.06 billion by 2028, accounting for 0.8% of all retail media spend, according to our March 2024 forecast.

US omnichannel retail media ad spend will increase by 22.6% next year for a total of $55.64 billion. One thing that could unlock spend even further? Standardization.

Nearly three-quarters (74.2%) of the $59.61 billion in US digital retail media ad spend we forecast for 2024 will go to Amazon. That leaves $15.35 billion going to non-Amazon retailers and $370 million going to in-store formats.That should excite marketers, said 蘑菇AV鈥檚 new principal analyst Sarah Marzano.

Retail media will continue to be the fastest-growing segment of digital advertising in the coming years. By opening up their digital platforms to third-party sellers, retailers can generate high-margin revenues from advertising and marketing services charged to sellers to promote their products both on- and offsite. Amazon has built a commanding lead in this space鈥擜mazon Ads draws more than three-quarters of US retail media ad spend.

US in-store retail media ad spend will total $370 million this year. But as the channel expands, oversaturating stores with ads can cause tension between retail media teams, which focus on maximizing ad dollars, and merchants, which focus on the store as a whole. Online advertising and in-store advertising are not two distinct channels, but instead work together.

In just five years, retail media went from a $1 billion segment to a $30 billion segment. With US omnichannel retail media ad spend poised to reach $59.98 billion this year, per our October 2023 forecast, non-retail industries from health and fitness to restaurants and financial institutions are looking to build out their own media networks.

We project US in-store retail media ad spend will nearly quadruple by 2027, but that鈥檚 starting from a fairly small base of $240 million this year, according to our forecast. Here are tips from experts on building an in-store retail media network.

In 2024, retail media ad spend will grow 28.6%, coming to just under $60 billion, per our forecast. To reach that potential, retail media networks (RMNs) need to identify what attracts advertisers and set them up for success. Here鈥檚 how three consumer packaged goods (CPG) leaders are thinking about retail media.

The vast majority (81.5%) of retail media ad spend will go toward on-site formats this year, per our October 2023 forecast. As advertisers seek to target consumers whenever and wherever possible, other formats are emerging, particularly in-store, streaming, and social.

Retail media has matured greatly since our 5 retail media networks (RMNs) worth watching. That evolution has come from growth in spend (we forecast US omnichannel retail media ad spend growth at 26.0% this year, with larger increases in off-site and connected TV), in-store innovations, and new entrants from other non-retailers.

鈥淲e鈥檙e showing 20.5% growth for retail media ad spending this year, and 22.9% actually accelerating into next year,鈥� said senior forecaster Ethan Cramer-Flood at our recent 鈥淎ttention! Seizing the Retail Media Opportunity鈥� summit. That stat assumes inflation will cool some in the second half of this year, which our forecasters currently predict it will.

On today's special episode, we continue our monthly show where we discuss the biggest trends of the moment and the newest research, sprinkle in some analysis, and bundle it up into a quiz. Every month, three of our analysts representing their respective coverage area teams compete against each other. (We also encourage you to play along at home.) We鈥檒l keep a running score all year and crown a winning team at the end of the year. Today, we cover Americans' sentiment toward AI, how much Netflix's password-sharing initiative will boost subscriber numbers, how retail media ad spending dollars are moving around, and more. Tune in to the discussion with this month's contestants: our analysts Sky Canaves and Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf and vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti.

Sam鈥檚 Club rolls out closed-loop attribution: Connecting the dots between ads and cross-channel sales should help advertisers be far more efficient with their retail media ad spending.

Mounting pressure will squeeze the long tail of retail media networks (RMNs). Even an influx of new RMNs will not chip away at the share of ad spending allocated to the top two powerhouses. Amazon and Walmart combined will gobble up more than 84% of all retail media ad spending in 2025, representing a pervasive and unyielding dominance within the channel.

Small and mid-size retail media networks (RMNs) are experiencing growing pains. In our early-2025 outlook, we said that the pervasive dominance of Amazon and Walmart鈥攚hich collectively control almost 85% of retail media ad spending鈥攚ould put immense pressure on smaller networks still finding their footing. That dynamic has intensified.

Our annual Trends to Watch report for Canada highlights expected developments in the country鈥檚 media and advertising market for 2025. Next year, we anticipate a shift in media buying will favor domestic publishers and retail media channels, while large platforms will contend with the new Digital Services Tax.

Retail continues to lead digital ad spending in France, though its share is diminishing as other sectors gain momentum. Overall, digital ad spending is seeing strong growth, driven by an improving economy and increasing investments across industries.

Amazon dominates retail media for now, but Walmart鈥檚 surge signals a fragmented future. Though Amazon still commands nearly 40% of all retail media ad spending, retailers like Instacart and Target, are investing heavily in RMNs鈥攕ignaling that brands now have more options for reaching high-intent shoppers.

Retail Media. We expect retail media ad spend to range from $56 billion to $61 billion in 2025, with a moderate tariffs scenario of $58 billion. The heavy tariffs scenario is an 8.1% reduction versus the limited tariffs scenario (the limited scenario corresponds to our existing forecast).

Latin America鈥檚 digital economy will undergo significant changes in 2025 as retail innovation and regulatory changes redefine business dynamics for global and local players alike.