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Toys and hobby sales have normalized after a pandemic-era spike, though some brands are still flying high. Here鈥檚 what to expect from the industry this year.

Tariffs will hurt US economic growth this year: The IMF expects growth of just 1.8%, as the trade war and rampant uncertainty chill consumer and business spending.

Planning for the holidays may be harder this year as tariffs cast a shadow over both consumers and retailers. 鈥淎s of right now, we鈥檙e seeing a lot of unusual consumer behavior that鈥檚 likely to persist as long as tariff uncertainty persists,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves, author of our 鈥淯S Holiday 2024 Recap and 2025 Preview鈥� report. Still, there are steps retailers can take to prepare. Here are three key strategies to help navigate a challenging holiday season.

YouTube ad growth is strong, but concentrated funding and economic uncertainty mean only the most distinct startups may thrive.

Retail leasing demand hit a post-pandemic low in Q1: Retailers and landlords alike have been hesitant to lease or purchase property for new store builds amid continued macroeconomic uncertainty.

Furniture retail squeezed by high acquisition costs: Industry KPI data shows the sector at a disadvantage as economic uncertainty and tariffs drive up the cost of winning customers.

Retailers faced no shortage of challenges in the first half of the year as elevated interest rates, the lingering effects of inflation, and a loosening labor market weighed on consumer spending. In this report, we鈥檒l contextualize our coverage of retailers鈥� Q2 revenues across four key verticals: department stores, home, mass merchants, and off-price.

Anxiety around inflation, a deteriorating labor market, and trade war consequences have deepened consumer uncertainty about the US economy, with wide-ranging implications for retail.

The economy is still under pressure, but investment in digital advertising will continue apace. Retail will continue to lead the ranking for total spend. Travel will lead in terms of growth, followed closely by CPG and retail.

鈥淐onsumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,鈥� wrote Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan鈥檚 Surveys of Consumers, who recently appeared on our 鈥淩eimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

Our take: Trump鈥檚 tariff pause may have given the market a breather鈥攂ut for marketers, the bigger problem is the erosion of long-term business confidence. Advertising thrives on predictability.

Even if de-escalation occurs, the economic uncertainty will leave a lasting mark on GDP and consumption behavior. What鈥檚 next? The impact of tariffs extends beyond global trade鈥攊t will have an impact on advertising strategies and media planning.

Most CEOs expect a recession and inflation: US consumers face significant uncertainty ahead, prompting them to pull back and focus spending on essentials.

Trump鈥檚 tariffs fuel ad industry pullback: Marketers are cutting budgets and ad growth projections fall sharply as inflation and trade uncertainty rise.

Market instability as well as concerns over an economic slowdown as a result of President Trump鈥檚 tariffs are making the BNPL player pause its plans

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� provides little clarity: The tariff announcements, while far-ranging and punitive for the US鈥� largest trading partners, failed to lift the cloud of uncertainty hanging over businesses and consumers.

Our expanded Latin America retail and ecommerce coverage now includes breakouts for 16 markets across Mexico, Central America, and South America. Brazil and Mexico will drive the bulk of net new ecommerce sales this year with a combined regional market share of 75.2%.

Uncertainty is having a chilling effect on US M&A activity: The number鈥攁nd size鈥�of deals is down YoY as companies wait for more clarity on government policy.

Digital ad spending in the payments industry is set to surge as consumers start to get through the financial headwinds of the past few years. We look at where payment providers should focus their ad spend to maximize returns.

This leaves the BNPL industry back at square one in terms of regulation, creating uncertainty for providers