蘑菇AV

According to our March 2025 forecast, nearly $30 billion in digital ad spending from 2025 to 2027 is expected to land outside the grasp of the triopoly of Google, Meta, and Amazon. This change isn鈥檛 happening in a vacuum. From agency mergers to rising creator investments and the shakeup around TikTok鈥檚 future, there鈥檚 growing interest in alternatives.

Tariffs will hurt US economic growth this year: The IMF expects growth of just 1.8%, as the trade war and rampant uncertainty chill consumer and business spending.

Kimberly-Clark forecasts $300 million hit from tariffs: But the company will not pass the cost onto consumers as it looks to maintain volume growth in a difficult environment.

You can do the same thing in business,鈥� said John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart US at Retail鈥檚 Big Show, put on by the National Retail Federation (NRF) earlier this year. Digital twins may play an even bigger role in retail now that retailers must navigate the uncertainty around tariffs. Here are four ways they can help retailers prepare and respond. 1. Forecasting cost impacts.

The company鈥檚 disappointing Q2 performance led it to cut its FY forecast. The company now expects to sell between 85,000 and 87,000 homes, a downgrade from its prior forecast of 90,000 to 92,000.

Tariff escalation heightens recession fears: 蘑菇AV's forecasting team analyzes the economic disruption from Trump鈥檚 new trade policies.

Albertsons struggles to fend off competition from mass merchants and club retailers: The grocer is leaning on promotions, private labels, and its pharmacy business to attract value-focused shoppers.

Nobody knows what鈥檚 ahead: Macroeconomic turmoil and shifting tariff policies make forecasting a guessing game that many consumer brands are opting out of.

In The Wall Street Journal鈥檚 latest quarterly survey, forecasts for US GDP growth in Q4 2025 fell to just 0.8%鈥攄own sharply from 2.0% in January. If accurate, that would mark the slowest quarterly growth since the pandemic-driven downturn in 2020.

Tariffs may reduce US social media ad spend by $10 billion in 2025, or 10% versus our existing forecast.

US paid retail membership fee revenues will be higher than ever before in 2025, reaching $46.39 billion, according to our May 2024 forecast. That鈥檚 an increase of 10.8% YoY, with over half (51.8%) of these revenues going to Amazon.

US tariffs could stall Germany鈥檚 economy this year: GDP is forecast to grow just 0.1% as the duties on autos and other imports curb companies鈥� access to an important growth market.

Constellation Brands imports all of its beer from Mexico: That puts the Modelo parent in a challenging position in wake of US tariffs on imported canned beer and empty aluminum cans.

If marketplace sellers raise prices as expected, the impact on Amazon shoppers would be significant, since we expect roughly $2 out of every $3 (66.8%) US shoppers spend on the platform this year will go to those third parties.

The National Retail Federation (NRF)鈥檚 Big Show is happening in New York City this weekend, and will offer an opportunity for retail media networks (RMNs) to pitch themselves to advertisers. Even though retail media is huge鈥攅xceeding $62 billion in US ad spend this year per our forecast, most of those ad dollars will go to the biggest RMNs. The remaining players are vying over the same $8.58 billion that isn't scooped up by Amazon, Walmart, or Target.

Trump hikes tariffs on China, pauses higher reciprocal tariffs on others: We expect US retail sales growth to slow due to the broader impact of his trade policies.