蘑菇AV

Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.

Tariffs on China could have an outsize impact on Meta鈥檚 revenues. The country represented about 11% of Meta鈥檚 ad spending, and top advertiser Temu has already started pulling back spending. MoffettNathanson forecast a $7 billion advertising income loss for Meta this year due to tariffs, per CNBC. That potential hit means Meta needs to cut losses elsewhere.

Proportionally, only China will see more ad dollars assigned to digital channels this year鈥�84.7% versus 82.6%. This is due to high digital adoption among consumers as well as a traditional media environment that has been less open to advertisers thanks to the influence of the ad-free BBC. And it has maintained a brisk pace in the ramp-up in digital spending.

Worldwide ad spending has nearly doubled since 2016, and the outlook remains bright.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes鈥攏ot impressions鈥攚ill shape the next era.

The US鈥檚 lead over China is also because of social media鈥檚 high ad spend in the US. Total social network ad spend in China this year ($38.64 billion) will be less than the US ($48.89 billion), per our forecast. 2. Social video, CTV dominate video ad spend. Social video accounts for the largest amount of US digital video ad spend at $23.4 billion, followed by connected TV (CTV) at $22.7 billion.

But a warning that price hikes will soon arrive could put a damper on ad growth in the quarters to come. US advertising spending will grow 3% in 2025 under our moderate tariff scenario鈥攖he most likely outcome as of May 12鈥檚 announcement that the US and China will institute a 90-day tariff reduction.

The German auto industry faces economic challenges and competition from Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). But German brands are increasing their local ad spend to attract domestic buyers. Travel, retail, and CPG are seeing the fastest growth in digital ad spending. Travel is continuing to recover, with double-digit growth.

Commerce media is expanding in terms of numbers of players, but ad spend patterns remain the same.

Amazon remains the retail media leader, but Chinese competitors are rising. A busy calendar of sales events has driven hefty ad spending from merchants, but costs are driving merchants to experiment with Temu and others. Search giants post strong AI-driven growth, but Google's market grip may be loosening. Google's search advertising empire continues to expand.

On Monday, the US and China agreed to halt reciprocal duties for 90 days, cutting tariffs down to 30% on most Chinese goods and 10% on US goods. Negotiations will resume in coming weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Ad support: The rollback includes cutting the de minimis tariff on low-cost goods from Chinese and Hong Kong to 54%, down from 120%, reducing losses for Temu and Shein.

The recent relaxation of Chinese tariffs could result in added spending to categories that initially made cuts. Early earnings reports aren鈥檛 encouraging. In the past month, YoY ad revenue declines were reported by NBCUniversal (7%), Paramount Global (19%), and Warner Bros. Discovery (8%). Live sports were an exception: Disney鈥檚 US sports segment received a 29% increase in ad revenues.

The timing is critical given Samsung, OnePlus, and Chinese brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Honor are pushing aggressive new designs, AI features, and custom ecosystems. What鈥檚 Google trying to fix?

And this is despite the fact that it has been banned in some highly populous countries (including China). YouTube also leads all other digital platforms for US time spent. US adults will spend an average 37 minutes per day on the platform in 2025, ahead of Netflix (36 minutes), Facebook (20 minutes), Instagram, and TikTok (17 minutes each).

Why it matters: Media companies are especially exposed to shifts in consumer behavior and ad spend鈥攁nd both are now under pressure. Ad budgets face new headwinds. As costs rise, consumer brands in retail, tech, and CPG may scale back marketing鈥攂ad news for platforms like Netflix, Disney+, and Roku, which increasingly depend on advertising. Content spending will tighten.