蘑菇AV

The biggest ecommerce disruptors face a reckoning: The closing of the de minimis exemption is forcing Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop to pivot, but it isn鈥檛 clear that shoppers will follow.

With TikTok facing potential US ban uncertainties, the platform's successful shopping integration has created both challenges and opportunities in the social commerce landscape. "TikTok really showed how social commerce can work in a new way in the US," our analyst Sky Canaves said on a recent episode of 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail.鈥�

Case in point: American Eagle Outfitters recently misjudged what shoppers wanted for spring and summer, resulting in a $75 million write-off tied to excess inventory and deeper promotions. With the landscape shifting so rapidly, caution may be the smarter strategy.

The insight: Both Alibaba and JD.com are expanding their ecommerce capabilities as they look to capture more spending from cautious Chinese consumers and defend their businesses from growing competition. Alibaba introduced an 鈥渋nstant commerce鈥� feature to Taobao in late April that will deliver 蝉丑辞辫辫别谤蝉鈥� orders in under an hour.

The levy, which will hit packages worth under 鈧�150 ($170.02), are paid by the ecommerce platform handling the shipment. The EU also proposed a separate 鈧�0.50 (54 cents) fee for goods routed through warehouses.

While the retailer is trying to climb out of the hole by investing in stores, expanding private label partnerships with companies like Disney, Champion, and Kate Spade, and boosting its ecommerce capabilities, those efforts have yet to deliver the turnaround Target needs.

Accelerating ecommerce: A partnership with tech platform Mirakl, announced Wednesday, should help Lowe鈥檚 expand its online assortment by simplifying catalog management for third-party sellers on Lowes.com. Our take: Lowe鈥檚 continues to show resilience, prioritizing consistency and long-term growth drivers鈥攍ike pro sales and ecommerce鈥攅ven as broader market conditions remain volatile.

The UK-US trade agreement does not override US tariffs on goods manufactured in, or containing components from, China鈥攁lthough a separate agreement between the US and China has temporarily lowered those duties from 145% to 30% for 90 days while talks continue. The deal does reduce the chance of the US imposing additional retaliatory tariffs on the UK in the near term.

The brand has also been hit hard by weakness in China and travel retail sector, as well as trade-down behavior from US consumers. Our take: Beauty brands have been understandably eager to capitalize on fierce demand from younger consumers.

If the new EU tariffs are enacted鈥攐r if steeper duties return following the expiration of 90-day pauses on so-called reciprocal tariffs and the harshest levies on Chinese imports鈥攖hat number is likely to drop even further. Go further: Read our FAQ on the US-EU Trade War.

TikTok is ByteDance鈥檚 global engine: Despite slowing growth in China, the platform continues to expand monetization and user base worldwide.

China鈥檚 deflation problem reveals flaws in its trade war strategy: Beijing鈥檚 bid to offset tariffs with domestic consumption are hampered by consumers鈥� reluctance to spend.

Walmart will raise prices soon to offset 鈥渢oo high鈥� tariffs: Even with the reduction in China duties, the cost is too much for the retailer and its suppliers to absorb.

That鈥檚 a win for Meta, YouTube, Alphabet and others, which could otherwise see revenues fall if ecommerce giants cut digital ad spending. We expect ecommerce sales to grow between 5.1% and 7.9% in 2025 under moderate and limited tariff scenarios鈥攍ike this one鈥攃ompared with 1.9% under heavy tariffs.

The big picture: Burberry, like the rest of the luxury sector, is contending with a global slump in demand as consumers in China and elsewhere rethink designer purchases in the face of economic uncertainty.

The Trump administration is stepping back from the brink: After trimming China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, it reduced duties on low-value parcels from China to a still-high 54%.

According to the Yale Budget Lab, which factors in the China and UK tariff rollbacks, prices are expected to rise 1.7% in the short term, adding about $2,800 in annual costs per household鈥攅nough to make many consumers think twice before reaching for their credit cards.

On Monday, US and Chinese officials reportedly announced a significant reduction of the recent tariffs that have led to economic uncertainty around the world.

Temu, which is owned by a Chinese ecommerce giant, might be hoping for a lower profile as President Donald Trump's tariffs take shape. Temu's US marketplace sales will grow 59.0% this year, according to our May 2024 forecast, which does not include the impact of potential tariffs.