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In part one of this two-part podcast episode, we discuss some predictions for 2024 that are too specific to be 100% certain about but could still come true, including: which subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platform Apple will likely buy, where metaverse playgrounds will spring up, and what the ruling between Google and the US Department of Justice will be. Tune in to the discussion with our vice presidents of content Suzy Davidkhanian and Paul Verna and analyst Max Willens.

32% of US adults are watching subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services less because they are watching more on free streaming services, per a July 2023 Aluma Insights survey. For 34% of US adults, viewing behaviors across streaming services haven’t changed as a result of free streaming services.

As the TV and streaming landscape becomes increasingly fragmented, the terms used to describe different ways to watch are multiplying. We’ve already broken down the difference between connected TV (CTV) and OTT. With subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platforms becoming ad-supported SVODs, and ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) platforms building out free ad-supported TV (FAST) platforms, it’s difficult to keep track of what cord-cutters are actually watching. Here’s a breakdown.

Only 33% of Indian sports fans use subscription streaming services, suggesting strong upside potential as the market continues its digital transformation. The Indian streaming landscape has 219.3 million viewers watching ad-supported content exclusively, while only 39.3 million maintain their own paid subscriptions (as opposed to sharing an account with friends or family).

In 2024, traditional TV accounted for less than half of US total video subscription revenues for the first time. Its share of video subscription revenues will slip to about one-third by the end of our forecast in 2028.

This article is part of Ä¢¹½AV’s client-only subscription Briefings—daily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends. To help you finish 2024 strong and start 2025 off on the right foot, articles like this one—delivering the latest news and insights—are completely free through January 31, 2025.

CTV is popular among younger Black viewers, who are also likely to have multiple streaming subscriptions. Black digital video viewers consume a mix of paid streaming services, free OTT services, and free ad-supported platforms. Roughly 73% of digital video viewers subscribe to three or more paid streaming services, according to a July 2023 Nielsen report.

Over the next few years, automated transactions, like programmatic guaranteed and private marketplaces, could account for at least half of upfront deals by agency holding companies, according to Nicole Scaglione, global vice president of CTV/OTT and online video at PubMatic. Overall upfront spending will likely increase this year. Digital’s upfront gains will more than make up for linear TV’s losses.

Streamers have pushed consumers toward ad-supported tiers by increasing costs for ad-free subscriptions and bundling with other services, making these tiers the default access point for streaming content. While those efforts initially annoyed users, demand for lower-cost entertainment and a growing tolerance for streaming ads has reduced their negative impact.

Ultimately, the central concern revolves around how these consolidations affect consumer costs, as bundling unpopular channels with must-have sports programming could lead to higher subscription prices. This article is part of Ä¢¹½AV’s client-only subscription Briefings—daily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends.

Rising subscription costs drive consumer behavior, with inflation concerns pushing viewers toward ad-supported options. Live content has emerged as a key differentiator as major platforms invest in live sports content, as viewers accept commercial breaks during natural game stoppages and timeouts.

As macroeconomic pressures weigh on device margins, Roku’s expanding programmatic capabilities and growing subscription base offer a hedge against volatility. Tariff pressures could discourage new streaming subscriptions.

Our new forecast for ad-supported Amazon Prime Video viewers anticipates that 130.4 million subscribers will stick with ads rather than pay an additional $3 a month for ad-free service. That figure represents 80.0% of the total Prime Video audience of 163.0 million in 2024 and will put Prime Video well ahead of Hulu as the largest ad-supported subscription OTT (sub OTT) video service in the US.

Our take: As ad-free streaming services grow, Rembrand's AI-powered approach to product placement could provide brands a scalable way to reach ad-resistant audiences.

The service is an entry point to the company's broader ecosystem, which could act as a gateway to hardware sales and bundled subscription services. By timing the preview with high-profile content releases and minimizing access barriers, Apple TV+ is positioning itself as a serious contender in a crowded market.

US subscription over-the-top video viewers will grow just 1.9% this year, per our forecast, reflecting a market where companies will fight over inches rather than miles. At the same time, consumers report frustration with the rising cost of subscription video: A July Hub Research survey found that US adults spend $82 monthly on streaming subscriptions and are only willing to pay up to $87.

OTT will account for more than half (53.5%) of US video subscription revenues by 2025, when it will reach $71.92 billion, according to our December 2023 forecast.