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Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Amazon sees 18% YoY growth in ad services: While economic headwinds could slow growth, maintaining a presence on Amazon will help advertisers emerge stronger.

The news: Google is gearing up for a wide release of ads in AI Mode search as advertisers grapple with concerns over brand safety and performance erosion in AI-curated environments. Our take: Even as concerns over Google鈥檚 ad dominance linger and advertisers consider competitors, cutting spend on Google entirely remains highly unlikely鈥攂ut the dominoes are stacking up against Google. Ads in AI mode shows the search giant is taking steps to protect itself in an increasingly competitive ecosystem.

The news: Google announced an expanded use of AI to combat invalid ad traffic in a bid to help advertisers preserve budgets and maintain trust, per a recent blog post. Though Google has previously used AI to prevent invalid traffic (IVT), the company has updated its 鈥渋ndustry-leading defenses powered by large language models,鈥� with the goal of better analyzing ad placements, suspicious user interactions, and app and web content. Our take: By taking concrete steps to reduce IVT and address transparency concerns, Google may begin to rebuild trust with advertisers.

The news: Content demands are growing faster than budgets, pushing marketers toward AI as a way to keep up. Even as automation increases, ad agencies remain crucial partners for executing and scaling campaigns. Two-thirds (67%) of global employees working in marketing and communications use AI for content creation frequently or all the time, per 10Fold鈥檚 AI-First, Buyer-Ready report. That surge in AI adoption is accompanied by ambitious output goals: 91% plan to increase their content output this year, and nearly half (45%) expect to produce three to five times more than before. Our take: The future of content marketing isn鈥檛 AI versus agencies鈥攊t鈥檚 a combination of both. Hybrid models that combine in-house human and AI-powered creation with agencies鈥� expertise in strategy, distribution, and optimization can help maximize budgets, maintain brand voice, and keep up output as demand rises.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss if Google is actually fending off the AI search competition, what its AI Overviews are doing to search behavior, and why growing AI search usage might not necessarily translate into a booming ad business. Join our conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host, Marcus Johnson, Senior Director of Briefings, Jeremy Goldman, and Principal Analyst, Yory Wurmser. Listen everywhere you find podcasts and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

The news: Google faces another anticompetitive accusation as ad tech company OpenX becomes the latest player to challenge Google鈥檚 grip on the digital advertising ecosystem. OpenX filed a lawsuit accusing Google of anticompetitive conduct in the digital ad space, claiming the company鈥檚 actions 鈥渃rippled competitors like OpenX at every turn,鈥� preventing fair competition. Our take: Google鈥檚 dominance means advertisers won鈥檛 completely cut spending鈥攂ut OpenX鈥檚 lawsuit is building on advertisers鈥� growing concerns over Google鈥檚 control of the ad ecosystem and curiosity about viable alternatives.

AI search engine Perplexity is facing potential ad business struggles with the departure of its head of advertising Taz Patel. The departure comes as Perplexity eyes new avenues for growth and is faced with legal pressures, per Adweek. Patel鈥檚 departure signals a deeper issue with AI search ad monetization, reflecting advertiser hesitation to spend without proven formats, measurement, and ROI, even as AI adoption grows.

Google is enhancing its retail ad offerings with loyalty-driven personalization tools aimed at retention. New features include personalized pricing and shipping perks for loyalty members, a 鈥渓oyalty mode鈥� in Google Ads鈥� retention goal to optimize for high-lifetime-value customers, and personalized annotations in Performance Max campaigns. Sephora, an early adopter, reported a 20% lift in click-through rates from loyalty-focused annotations. The launch comes as loyalty ranks high on shoppers鈥� holiday priorities and as CMOs lean on loyalty programs to bolster first-party data. With Amazon pulling away from Google, the updates position Ads as a retention engine in the retail fight.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss what AI Overviews are doing to search behavior, some potential new business models for the internet, and how much 鈥淎I slop鈥� might encourage folks to decrease their time on the web. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host, Marcus Johnson, Analyst, Grace Harmon, and the CEO and Founder of CMO Huddles, and host of the Renegade Marketers Unite podcast, Drew Neisser. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

Microsoft reported $76.4 billion in Q2 revenue, up 18% YoY, as cloud infrastructure, productivity software, and embedded AI drove strong performance. Microsoft Cloud grew 27% to $46.7 billion, and Azure's annual run rate surpassed $75 billion, overtaking Google Cloud. Enterprise adoption of tools like Dynamics 365 continues to rise, reinforcing Microsoft鈥檚 role in AI-powered operations. Following the report, Microsoft鈥檚 market cap crossed $4 trillion. The company plans to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 to expand its AI infrastructure, while showing capital discipline. Microsoft is positioning itself as the foundational enterprise platform for the AI era.

Alphabet posted strong Q2 results, with Search ad revenue up 12% YoY and YouTube ad revenue climbing 13%. But analysts and advertisers are asking tougher questions as the company shifts toward AI-led formats like AI Overviews and Gemini. Google declined to provide clear data on ROI, clickthroughs, or user engagement, fueling concerns about monetization in a no-click world. Licensing costs for LLM training, brand safety, and competition from ChatGPT and Perplexity are all in focus. While YouTube continues to lead in streaming ad growth, the future of Google鈥檚 ad engine may hinge on transparency, AI accountability, and performance parity.

The news: Google is experimenting with AI summaries in Discover鈥攖he news feed within its iOS and Android search apps鈥攁dding yet another threat to referral traffic for web publishers. Instead of displaying a headline and link to a news story, Discover shows an AI summary with an icon featuring the logo of any cited source. Our take: If users increasingly rely on AI summaries鈥攁nd if Discover becomes a zero-click search hub鈥攑ublishers risk further declines in web traffic, imperiling not just ad revenues but the viability of good journalism.

The news: Facing mounting pressure from ChatGPT and other platforms, Google Shopping is stepping up its game to stay ahead in the product discovery race. Our take: The best way for Google to fend off the competition is by making Shopping indispensable. Features that mimic personal stylists, surface the right deals at the right time, and boost shoppers鈥� confidence through virtual try-ons can help ensure consumers keep turning to Google as their shopping companion.

Some students have already started their school year, but the back-to-school shopping season is far from over. In fact, over a third (34%) of families begin their back-to-school shopping in August, according to recent data from ad platform gumgum.

The news: Apple Intelligence could integrate OpenAI鈥檚 GPT-5, its latest model that combines traditional ChatGPT capabilities with deepo3-series reasoning, as early as next month, per 9to5Mac. Updates for a more personalized and intelligent Siri, originally expected in the iOS 18.4 update, were delayed in March until sometime 鈥渋n the coming year.鈥� GPT-5 could accelerate that timeline and give Apple a more robust foundation for a truly conversational, autonomous assistant Our take: Marketers and publishers should prepare for reduced visibility through traditional search if assistants like Siri can effectively answer user queries directly. Focus on generative engine optimization (GEO) for conversational AI discovery鈥攖hink FAQs on websites and succinct answers that large language models (LLM) can easily surface.

The news: Publishers are tackling AI scraping with a new strategy鈥攑ay per crawl. Rather than one-time licensing deals, usage-based compensation models would have AI companies pay publishers and content providers based on how often their work is used in AI-generated responses. Our take: These usage-based models could be a more equitable deal for publishers whose content powers AI engines that are earning tens or hundreds of millions of dollars per year. To avoid getting locked out of monetization, brands should act now to review existing content agreements, explore licensing opportunities, and push for fairer models that recognize the value of original content.

OpenAI introduced product recommendations into ChatGPT on Monday, creating a potential opportunity for advertising鈥攁nd a threat to affiliate marketing sites.