蘑菇AV

Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May 蘑菇AV forecast.

Ad spend continues to grow faster than the GDP, fueled in no small part by connected TV (CTV), retail media, social media, and search.

Retail media ad spend will make up over one-fifth of total US ad spending by 2027, per our forecast.

US ad spend dropped 8.0% YoY in February, according to a MediaPost analysis of Standard Media Index鈥檚 US Ad Market Tracker. That marks eight months of consecutive YoY decline as part of a trend that began in July 2022.

Traditional search鈥攚hich excludes retail media search鈥攚ill claim the biggest share of US ad dollars this year, amounting to $90.73 billion, according to our March 2024 forecast.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how much ad spending will grow this year, whether there are more reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic about consumer spending, and what today's most interesting ad spending trends are by media and company. "In Other News," we talk about a deal to bring video ads to Spotify鈥檚 app on Roku and how Amazon's second year of streaming Thursday Night Football is going. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Paul Verna.

After 11 months of US ad declines, Standard Media's US Ad Market Tracker showed 2.5% growth in May, signaling a potential rebound. Even with mixed signals and uncertainties, there is at last a sign of hope, our analyst Paul Verna said on a recent episode of 鈥淏ehind the Numbers.鈥�

US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May 蘑菇AV forecast.

The intensity of the dispute reflects a shrinking pool of high-value media accounts, with agency holding companies鈥� share of US ad spend falling from 44.6% in 2019 to just 29.6% in Q1 2024 per Advertiser Perceptions. Our take: WPP鈥檚 loss of Mars should serve as a wake-up call.

US social media ad spending will ride the momentum platforms built in H2 2023 thanks to AI, social video advertising growth, and a fixation on bottom-funnel outcomes.

LinkedIn is urging B2B marketers to embrace unscripted, authentic video after seeing strong engagement growth on the platform. CMO Jessica Jensen told 蘑菇AV that 鈥渞eal humans talking like real humans鈥� resonates far more than polished assets, encouraging executives to share candid updates and even humor in their posts. The push reflects broader demand: 52% of US B2B marketers used video in 2024, while Millennials and Gen Z鈥攏ow 71% of B2B buyers鈥攅xpect casual, social-style content in professional settings. With B2B video ad spend rising nearly 18% this year, LinkedIn is well positioned to capture that momentum.

The news: ByteDance鈥檚 TikTok paid people to lend their likenesses to digital avatars, often paying less than $1,000 per actor, per The New York Times. The avatars, which are free for TikTok advertisers to use, were meant for TikTok alone but have appeared on ByteDance鈥檚 video-editing tool CapCut and on platforms like Facebook and YouTube. Our take: AI-based productions are democratizing advertising, allowing even the smallest firms to produce high-quality ads with minimal effort and budgets. Forty-five percent of smaller advertisers will use generative AI (genAI) in their videos by 2026, per IAB鈥檚 2025 Digital Video Ad Spend Report. However, brands must weigh the benefits against the risks, considering 31% of US adults say AI use in ads would make them less likely to buy, per CivicScience.

Even before implementation, companies like Temu and Shein cut US ad spending by up to 31%. Ad buyers are shifting toward domestic brands and performance-heavy channels with clearer ROI. Search and social are facing structural shifts. AI summaries in search are reducing clicks, while antitrust cases against Google and Meta threaten to break up long-standing ad ecosystems.

Nexstar is acquiring Tegna in a $6.2 billion deal that would expand its reach to 265 stations and 39% of US TV households, pending FCC approval. CEO Perry Sook says the merger is essential for competing with Big Tech, while critics warn it could weaken local journalism. The timing comes as regulators signal openness to loosening ownership caps. Local TV ad spending is projected at $17.27 billion in 2025, with broadcast accounting for most of it, but growth lags digital channels. Nexstar is betting that consolidation and scale will help protect broadcast revenue against mounting digital competition.

US advertisers will spend $25.9 billion on AI search ads in 2029鈥�13.6% of all search ad spending, up from just 0.7% in 2025, according to 蘑菇AV's May forecast.

The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media鈥檚 global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing鈥攅xpected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels鈥攍ike last-mile delivery and in-store signage鈥攇ain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

While Amazon and Walmart are expected to secure nearly 90% of all US ad spending on retail media in 2025, per an 蘑菇AV forecast, over 70 other retail media networks (RMNs) can carve out valuable niches by leveraging their unique strengths. For these networks, success lies in developing distinctive value propositions.

Pure-play advertising fuels US ad growth: Recurring events like the Olympics drive spending, but the market is steadily expanding even without them.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

A hurting US ad market is showing signs of recovery. Our forecast predicts 3.8% growth in overalUS media ad spend this year, for a total of $353.86 billion. Magna upped its US ad spend forecast for 2023 YoY growth from 4.2% to 5.2% in September. And in August, the US ad market achieved two consecutive months of growth for the first time since last June.

Our forecast data reveals a mismatch between marketers who have been quick to transition to digital platforms, and consumers who are still spending time on traditional media like TV, newspapers, and radio. This year, 74.6% of all US ad spending will go toward digital media, while US adults will only spend 62.1% of their daily media time with digital, according to our forecast.

With $9.15 billion in US ad spending going to OOH advertising this year (up 7% from last year) and an increasing portion of that spending going to digital (31.4% this year, rising to 40.4% by 2027), per our forecast, advertisers should be innovating on this somewhat traditional format. Here are three unique OOH ad activations.

Although inflation, a strong job market, and a positive economic outlook are at play, three dominant ad channels are contributing to upward US ad spend. October saw a 3.2% YoY growth for the US ad market, marking the fourth consecutive month of spending increases, according to the Standard Media Index ad market tracker.