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US retail and ecommerce sales are getting back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories, but consumer spending may be stunted amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands calibrate their sales mix against the market.

Retail media ad spending in the US will reach almost $55 billion in 2024, as advertisers鈥� focus on off-site spending intensifies.

Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.

US buy now, pay later payment value. US cryptocurreny payment users. US retail social commerce sales.

Some of the largest US banks with high traffic volume ranked much lower鈥攕howing that scale can hurt if not well-managed. Asset managers and financial services firms tend to outperform because they build for efficiency鈥攂anks can take cues here. Our take: These findings aren鈥檛 to say US retail banks aren鈥檛 doing their part to deliver excellent overall digital experiences for their customers.

48% of US retail business decision-makers say video ads drive the biggest return on ad spend (ROAS) on Amazon, according to March 2024 data by Zogby Analytics and Feedvisor.

US paid retail membership fee revenues will be higher than ever before in 2025, reaching $46.39 billion, according to our May 2024 forecast. That鈥檚 an increase of 10.8% YoY, with over half (51.8%) of these revenues going to Amazon.

Though beauty has remained a relatively resilient category amid rising prices, tariffs could put a damper on that as they take hold. 29% of US adults say they鈥檒l likely cut back on beauty/personal care spending if tariffs raise prices, according to February 2025 data from CivicScience. That鈥檚 why retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Target are boosting their beauty offerings to drive sales and increase customer loyalty. Here鈥檚 how.

The news: Discount furniture retailers are stepping up their expansion as much of the industry contracts. Our take: Consumers are focusing more on value, and that push could change US perceptions about shopping for furniture鈥攅mphasizing value and simplicity over stylish but costly designs

For the second half of 2023, US retail media ad spending will reach $46.38 billion, per Insider Intelligence鈥檚 forecast. Meanwhile, connected TV (CTV) ad spending will also post growth of 20.0%. In response, marketers in 2024 will create dedicated retail and media strategies to leverage retail data sets in CTV.

Amazon is the top dog of US retail, accounting for 37.6% of all US ecommerce sales this year for a total of $431.11 billion dollars, according to our forecast. While the giant has a successful stronghold in many US industries, Amazon isn鈥檛 dominant everywhere, especially as it pertains to a physical footprint and getting consumers comfortable with its elite tech. Here are a few areas Amazon hasn鈥檛 overtaken鈥攜et.

The news: Skims, the shapewear brand founded by Kim Kardashian, is on an expansion tear as it nears $1 billion in annual sales, per Business of Fashion. The company plans to open 16 stores in the US this year, bringing its total domestic footprint to 22. Over the next nine months, Skims expects to establish itself in seven new markets鈥攊ncluding stores in Mexico, London, and Dubai. Our take: While stores are hugely important to Skims鈥� growth, the company has several advantages over the rest of the D2C field. Unlike most other D2C companies, Skims doesn鈥檛 need to rely on its stores as billboards given its high-profile founder, who is also a fixture of its ad campaigns. Its partnership with Nike will give it access to an even larger audience and smooth its entry into the athleisure category鈥攁ssuming production delays don鈥檛 get in the way. The launch will also considerably increase Skims鈥� retail presence without needing to invest in premium real estate.

The news: Nearly half of US and UK consumers admit to abusing retailers鈥� returns policies in the past 12 months, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll. Our take: Retailers face a Catch-22 when it comes to returns. Being too generous opens the door for fraud and can result in retailers being overburdened by reverse logistics costs. But being too restrictive can deter shoppers from opening their wallets.

US sales of private label grocery brands grew 3.9% in 2024, outpacing the 1.0% growth of national brands, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA).

The National Retail Federation (NRF)鈥檚 Big Show is happening in New York City this weekend, and will offer an opportunity for retail media networks (RMNs) to pitch themselves to advertisers. Even though retail media is huge鈥攅xceeding $62 billion in US ad spend this year per our forecast, most of those ad dollars will go to the biggest RMNs. The remaining players are vying over the same $8.58 billion that isn't scooped up by Amazon, Walmart, or Target.