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The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration’s April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That’s made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term. The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period—originally set to expire on Wednesday—until August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries. Our take: With companies planning to pass on about 70% of the cost of levies to consumers via higher prices, it’s no surprise that we expect tariffs to take a meaningful bite out of retail sales this year—whether we remain in the moderate scenario or shift into a heavier one. In such a dynamic environment, retailers and brands should rely on scenario modeling that accounts for a range of possible futures. They can hope for the best but plan for the worst to ensure they’re ready to adapt to whatever twists lie ahead.

Emerging markets from Southeast Asia and Latin America will fill out much of the rest of the top 10. India and South Korea will be the only two countries in the top 10 for both ecommerce growth and total ecommerce sales. Click here to view our full forecast for retail ecommerce sales growth, by country. Our country-level projections have not changed much in 2024.

Mobile ad spend in Southeast Asia hit $9.1 billion in 2023, yet only 51% of businesses in the region plan to adopt fraud detection tools despite heavy reliance on mobile apps. How it works: Fraudsters use a mix of sophisticated and simple methods to circumvent filters and farm impressions. Fake installs and event spoofing distort marketing data.

The outlook for worldwide retail sales in 2025 is slightly down from what we expected in Q1, but worst-case scenarios now seem unlikely. For ecommerce, the news is somewhat positive.

Alcohol brands face a daunting challenge in the crowded aisles of grocery stores: capturing shoppers’ attention amidst a sea of competing products. They manage hundreds to thousands of active items sold across millions of stores worldwide.

Levi Strauss excludes tariff impact from forecast: The uncertainty and upheaval from the latest duties are making it impossible for the retailer to nail down a mitigation strategy.

Its penetration in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa exceeds its worldwide figure. Conversely, X (formerly Twitter) and Snapchat are particularly weak in those regions. Click here to view our full forecast for social network user penetration, by country and by platform. If TikTok is banned in the US, its business will rely heavily on Latin America and Southeast Asia.