蘑菇AV

Even as TikTok ad revenues tick up, Meta will still account for 75.0% US ad dollars spent on social media this year, according to our forecast.

Retail media is the fastest-growing ad channel we track in the US, growing by 26.0% this year. Its share of total US media spend will reach 14.1% this year, and come 2028, nearly 1 in 5 ad dollars spent in the US will go to retail media. But the channel has the potential to grow even more. Here are four key factors that present challenges to retail media growth right now.

But a warning that price hikes will soon arrive could put a damper on ad growth in the quarters to come. US advertising spending will grow 3% in 2025 under our moderate tariff scenario鈥攖he most likely outcome as of May 12鈥檚 announcement that the US and China will institute a 90-day tariff reduction.

The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media鈥檚 global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing鈥攅xpected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels鈥攍ike last-mile delivery and in-store signage鈥攇ain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

Key Stat: Depending on their severity, tariffs could wipe out as much as $28 billion from the US advertising ecosystem this year alone, per our forecasts. Executive Summary. Tariffs are driving a sharp slowdown in US advertising growth. Widespread concern over Trump鈥檚 sweeping trade policies has led to downgraded 2025 ad spend forecasts, with nearly half of advertisers planning budget cuts.

To put it another way, if all US-based creators were to move their social media brand deals to a single, imaginary app, it would be the fourth-largest social platform in the US based on brand investments. Click here to view our full US ad spending forecasts for Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, and X.

Marketers are investing more ad dollars in social video than TV. The gap between social video and linear TV ad spending continues to widen. We expect marketers to spend $62.95 billion on US social video ads this year, up 17.9% YoY. Meanwhile, US ad spend on linear TV will drop 15.5% YoY to $49.94 billion. Time spent with linear TV still far exceeds that of social video.

With US commerce media ad spending projected to reach nearly $70 billion in 2025, understanding how to effectively operate in this space has become critical for marketers.