蘑菇AV

KEY STAT: US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the 2023鈥�2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward digital programming. Upfront TV ad spending is trending downward. US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to $18.64 billion for the 2023鈥�2024 TV season, a downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast.

After more than doubling its US ad revenues last year, TikTok will continue to siphon market share with the fastest growth rate of any platform鈥攂y a large margin. Marketers should recognize that:. TikTok is now a must-buy. That鈥檚 especially true if the goal is to reach younger consumers. Its penetration among US consumers ages 12 to 24 is outdone only by Snapchat.

Our forecast calls for digital live sports viewers in the US to grow from 95.5 million in 2023 to 126.8 million by 2027鈥攁 32.8% increase over four years. Younger audiences (ages 13 to 34) are leading the shift to digital, with 24% consuming sports via subscription video-on-demand (SVOD), compared with just 16% for those 55 and older.

Zoom out: The rise of FAST channels has been a notable US trend as rising costs of subscription-based services lead consumers to alternatives. Services like Amazon's Freevee, Pluto, Tubi, and Roku have all experienced significant growth, making the Google TV network a timely addition for advertisers seeking to capitalize on this shift.

Bolstered by the growth of connected TV (CTV), programmatic will account for 92.1% of digital display ad spend and 89.4% of video ad spend in the US by 2025, according to 蘑菇AV鈥檚 December 2023 forecast. Advertisers are shifting their focus to premium, scalable supply, particularly in CTV, said Giuseppe La Rocca, vice president of enterprise at StackAdapt.

Although this deal aided subscriber growth in the US and Canada, it led to a dip in average revenues per user (ARPU) in these regions to $8鈥攖hough, globally, ARPU rose by 6% to $7.28. Challenges remain: Despite these gains in streaming, Disney's linear networks are facing continued difficulties, with revenues declining by 8% and operating income falling by 22%.

Regulatory concerns: Regulators like the US Department of Justice, European Commission, and UK's Competition and Markets Authority are investigating Google's potential monopolization of the digital ad market and monitoring its Privacy Sandbox proposals to ensure they don't provide an unfair advantage.

Clearly, prospective advertisers are not being scared by the prospect of a US TikTok ban鈥攑erhaps because nearly half of US voters oppose such a move, partners view it as unlikely to come to fruition, despite TikTok bans spreading worldwide.

The company credited the addition of 1.9 million net accounts with Roku TV licensing programs in the US and abroad. Streaming hours were 25.1 billion, up 4.4 billion and more than 50% YoY. Nielsen reported that The Roku Channel surpassed 1% of total US TV viewing in May, achieving that feat for the first time.

Prime Video's ad tier launches amidst skepticism: Amazon's strategic incentives aim to reshape streaming advertising despite market challenges.

Decoding Amazon's pitch deck: From Preferred Deals to Premium Sponsorships, Prime Video aims to set new standards in ad-supported streaming.

Our take: Free ad-supported TV viewership in the US has eclipsed 50% in recent years, and Roku is well-positioned to capitalize on the trend鈥攅specially in a moment where inflation has made many households more sensitive to cost.

Contrary to mainstream narratives, not everyone wants three-second videos 24-7: December 2022 data from Magnite reveals that a majority of US consumers (55%), predominantly watch videos spanning a few minutes, while short clips lasting 60 seconds or less attract 29% of viewers (we see similar trends in Western Europe).

Our take: tvScientific's CPO model aims to make CTV a top choice for performance advertisers by overcoming traditional TV ad limitations and potentially shifting nearly $200 billion in US performance ad spend to CTV. The new model could make CTV advertising more attractive to digital marketers by focusing on outcomes like sales lift instead of traditional reach and frequency metrics.

Our own US CTV advertising forecast calls for 21.2% growth in ad spending this year, 13.2% in Canada, and 9.5% in the UK. Why it matters: This dramatic rise in CTV advertising is significantly altering advertising strategies and budgets. As consumers flock to streaming platforms, advertisers are following suit, viewing CTV as an ideal space to reach an engaged, targetable audience.

Netflix experiences growing pains as an ad platform: It misses some viewership guarantees by a mile鈥攖hough it鈥檚 trying to make up for it.

Subscription OTT video is chasing linear TV in terms of time spent in the US. We estimate adults still spend significantly more time per day watching TV, but that figure is decreasing and will fall below 3 hours this year. Meanwhile, for subscription OTT video, time spent will surpass an hour and a half per day. But ad spend on these platforms is not proportional to time spent.

This year, time spent with digital video will officially surpass time spent with TV among US adults. Video advertising is also moving toward digital as advertisers set their sights on connected TV and social video, and even take advantage of retail media networks鈥� video opportunity. Whether you鈥檙e pitching a video ad campaign or reevaluating a tight ad budget, here are five charts that will help with the how, what, where, when, and why of video advertising. Whether you鈥檙e pitching a video ad campaign or reevaluating a tight ad budget, here are five charts that will help with the how, what, where, when, and why of video advertising.

US connected TV (CTV) ad spend will continue to grow through 2027, when it will reach $40.90 billion, according to our forecast. Apart from a small bump next year, ad spend on TV (including broadcast and cable TV) will decline over the next few years. Still, TV鈥檚 share of total ad spend is larger than CTV鈥檚, indicating it remains a key player in marketers鈥� ad strategies.

Combined US TV and connected TV (CTV) ad spend will grow every year through to the end of our forecast period in 2027, when it will reach nearly $100 billion, according to our October 2023 forecast.

Amid privacy changes and macroeconomic headwinds, social media will be the channel hurt most by the digital advertising downturn. For 2023, we have reduced our US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion.

Walmart Connect is teaming up with NBCU to power ads in sports livestreams: The partnership is part of Walmart Connect鈥檚 growing CTV ambitions, which includes an expanded deal with Roku.

US upfront/NewFront digital video ad spend will rise 37.3% this year to reach $18.61 billion, per our forecast. That shows media buyers are still planning ahead, even as viewers move away from linear. 鈥淏uying upfront became popular with linear TV, but that old-school sales tactic has become common in digital video, podcasts, video games, and is even emerging in retail media,鈥� said Benes.