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A trade war with the US will hinder economic performance in Canada this year. Ad spending overall is expected to lose the momentum gained in 2024. But many digital formats will benefit from the emphasis on return on ad spending.

Canada鈥檚 trade war with its largest trading partner is underway. While uncertainty remains around the scope and depth of US tariffs, Canadian brands and retailers need to rebalance a heavy reliance on US-based customers and suppliers.

Our annual report on ecommerce in Canada highlights our most recent forecasts for all flavors of retail, including brick-and-mortar, digital buying, and mobile commerce.

The news: Gander Social is an upcoming Canadian social platform built on the decentralized AT Protocol, similar to Bluesky. Gander rejects algorithmic feeds, ad surveillance, and dark UX patterns, per Metricool. As an alternative to networks like X, Meta鈥檚 Threads, and Bluesky, it offers user-controlled content, privacy by design, and community-first tools鈥攈osted entirely within Canada. It will be available as a closed beta in August. Our take: As algorithmic fatigue and platform distrust grow, demand is rising for community-driven, ad-light spaces. Marketers should watch Gander as a testbed for the next wave of privacy-first, hyper-local platforms.

Amazon is the largest retail media giant worldwide, but it鈥檚 not the only major player. Amazon will capture nearly 40% of worldwide retail media ad spending this year. If not for China, the ecommerce giant would be nearly as dominant internationally as it is in the US. In its home market, Amazon accounts for over 75% of retail media spending.

In our exclusive survey with ESW, data from shoppers in 18 countries reveals new twists in the path to purchase, the rising momentum of marketplaces, and the resilience of age-old fundamentals.

The news: Lululemon beat earnings expectations and met revenue forecasts in Q1, but softening demand in its core Americas market cast a shadow over the results. Our take: Even premium brands aren鈥檛 immune to macro pressures. As consumers grow increasingly cost-conscious, discretionary purchases鈥攅specially those with big price tags鈥攁re easy for consumers to postpone. Lululemon鈥檚 challenge now is not just product innovation, but convincing shoppers its value proposition is worth the premium.

Alphabet鈥檚 advertising empire is under considerable legal and regulatory pressure in the US and EU, and Meta, Amazon, and TikTok face their own legal problems in various major markets. However, we have not yet adjusted any of our forecasts for potential government action.

Ralph Lauren and Canada Goose defied luxury slowdown in Q1: But tariffs and uncertainty could reverse that momentum.

The US could be the only country to experience a drop in foreign travel spending this year: Tariffs, uncertain travel policies, and a boycott by Canadian and Mexican travelers may cost the economy $12.5 billion.

Tim Hortons, for instance, gained traction in Q2 with initiatives like freshly cracked Canadian scrambled eggs, a $1 donut-and-coffee deal, and a new breakfast meal co-created with actor Ryan Reynolds. Krispy Kreme, by contrast, is prioritizing financial stability over aggressive growth.

At the same time, President Donald Trump has suggested tariffs on cars imported from Canada could rise even further鈥攔aising more questions than answers for the industry. Our take: The lack of clarity has left automakers and industry groups lobbying hard for relief, but so far, no firm policies have emerged.

Canadian hockey is the next sports streaming rights prize: Amazon could partner with Rogers Communication to secure an NHL rights package next year.