蘑菇AV

Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.

Back-to-school sales will decelerate this year: Mounting macroeconomic pressures are prompting retailers to kick off promotions earlier and encouraging consumers to buy now rather than later.

Back-to-school spending is steady in 2025, but shopper behavior is split. Parents are prioritizing tech and clothing鈥攜et these are also the first to be cut when budgets tighten. Consumers are shopping earlier, seeking deals, and using AI to keep costs down. With shopping habits divided by generation and income, retailers must stay flexible, personalize offers, optimize for AI, and create seamless cross-channel experiences.

Gaming audiences are a powerful force in back-to-school shopping, influencing both digital and in-store purchases. Activision Blizzard Media鈥檚 latest research reveals how this often-overlooked group鈥攎any of them parents鈥攁re planning early, spending big, and responding to mobile-first ads.

The news: Paze notched a major partnership with Worldpay to expand its merchant network, per a press release. Our take: Groundwork has been set for Paze to take off. We predicted that Paze would make significant gains in 2025, and this partnership will help Paze establish its online presence and customer familiarity for strong back-to-school and holiday shopping spend.

The back-to-school season generates revenues brands and retailers count on, as the second-highest shopping volume of the year ahead of holiday. This year, though, back-to-school growth will be harder to come by as spending in key channels slows.

The big picture: Even at the current lower rates, tariffs will result in fewer choices and higher prices for shoppers during the back-to-school and holiday periods.

Shoppers will first feel the pinch in back-to-school aisles. A child hoping for a blue backpack may have to settle for a red one. The strain will also be evident when shopping for higher-ticket items like strollers鈥攏early all of which are manufactured in China鈥攚here limited supply will likely translate to steeper prices. The pressure could crescendo during the holiday season.

UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in September, thanks to the new iPhone and Oasis: Back-to-school shopping and entertainment spending boosted demand for non-essential items, although poor weather and consumer caution dented supermarket sales.

It鈥檚 a strategic move to lock in sales before seasonal expenses鈥攍ike utility bills and back-to-school costs鈥攂egin to crowd out discretionary spending. Our take: Michaels is betting that even as consumers pull back on discretionary purchases, they鈥檒l keep splurging on Instagram-worthy seasonal d茅cor鈥攅specially if they can get it first.

The acquisition also opens up more monetization opportunities within the calendar for school supplies, back-to-school clothing, and more. What鈥檚 in it for Saturn: It can use Snapchat鈥檚 deep user base to expand its calendar to other scheduling, including work, parent schedules, and social events.

Sephora-related content resonated best with Gen Z consumers, but legacy brands like Neutrogena struggled to maintain relevance. Cultural moments like Pride and back-to-school drove Q3 UGC, while video tutorials on platforms like TikTok provide more effective ways for brands to connect with Gen Z. Here are four insights into how beauty brand-related, UGC performed among Gen Z consumers in Q3, according to research firm dcdx鈥檚 Gen Z's Top 50 Beauty Brands Report Q3 2024.

The situation introduces additional volatility just as advertisers are heading into seasonal planning periods for back-to-school, holiday, and Q4 campaigns, which could drive more cautious investment. Our analysts are currently preparing an updated US Retail & Ecommerce forecast, slated for release in May, with revised global retail forecasts coming by late June.

Though the remaining 30% duty is still substantial, the agreement signals both sides are seeking to de-escalate鈥攁 welcome development for retailers ahead of the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. Yet, the 90-day window leaves significant uncertainty, complicating long-term planning for brands and retailers. The Impact of the Temporary Rollback Will Be Limited.

Amazon Prime Day 2023 will drive a surge of activity for Amazon, competing retailers, and brands looking to generate a sales boost before the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.