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US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

The news: Klarna partnered with Nift, a gift platform, to offer 鈥済ift鈥�-style rewards for customers鈥� BNPL purchases. Our take: Until they can close that gap, BNPL players will struggle to attract a meaningful share of shoppers. It鈥檚 one reason we forecast BNPL user growth will slow every year through 2029.

The news: Affirm鈥檚 gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 43% YoY to $10.4 billion, per Q4 FY 2025 earnings (ended June 30). The buy now, pay later (BNPL) company reported strong numbers across the board. Revenues soared 33% YoY to $876 million. Active consumers increased 24% YoY to 23 million. Transactions per active customer grew 19% to 5.8. The number of active merchants jumped 24% to 337,000. Our take: Affirm鈥檚 dominance in the US market is propelled by powerful Affirm Card spend鈥攚e forecast Affirm will edge out Klarna in terms of US volume by $4.7 billion. If the firm can keep growing its average ticket size, it could carve out a healthy niche in the consumer credit market: purchases that are too small to jump through the hoops of securing a personal loan but too large to pay off in one month on a credit card balance.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will rise 14.8% annually from 2023 through 2027, as BNPL fintech leaders adapt to a maturing market by diversifying product offerings and harnessing demographic trends.

BNPL will count more than 100 million users by 2027. Its high-growth days are in the past, with both the number of BNPL users and overall payment value decelerating. But it remains an important financing tool for consumers and has a long runway ahead: BNPL payment value will account for just 1.4% of overall retail sales in 2025, per our forecast.

The news: Zip鈥檚 total transaction volume (TTV) spiked 30.3% YoY in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), driven by momentum in its US business. Cash before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBTDA) more than doubled YoY to AUD 170.3 million ($109.38 million), a 147% increase. Total transaction value hit AUD 13.1 billion ($8.42 billion). Transaction volume was up 22.1% YoY to 93 million. Net bad debts decreased YoY to 1.5% of TTV, down from 1.7% in FY24. Our take: Zip鈥檚 year-end results reflect the spending strength of US consumers. We forecast US total retail sales to hit $7.513.38 trillion for 2025. By comparison, Zip鈥檚 native Australia is only anticipated to crack $356.49 billion in total retail sales this year.

From a slew of major partnerships to our forecasts for slower user growth, we look at the biggest BNPL trends of 2024鈥攁nd what they mean for 2025.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) user growth is slowing, plummeting from 97.0% in 2021 to just 4.1% in 2028, according to our forecast.

Klarna will generate $33.38 billion in US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value by 2027, pulling ahead of Affirm in a period of massive growth for BNPL providers, per our forecast.

Consumers are flocking to buy now, pay later (BNPL) to finance bigger purchases: We forecast that BNPL payment value will increase 19.2% this year. High cost of borrowing. The average credit card interest rate for August is 23.99% APR, per Investopedia. By comparison, interest rates in Q1 2021 were as low as 19.24%, a near 25% increase over the past four years.

The news: Google Pay added Klarna to its in-app BNPL roster of Affirm, Zip, and Afterpay. Our take: Klarna鈥檚 late adoption of a physical card like Affirm鈥檚 Affirm Card in the US set the BNPL provider back in terms of capturing a wider user base and payment volume. Integrations like Google Pay and Apple Pay can help overcome that gap鈥攖hough Affirm also has partnerships with both Google Pay and Apple Pay.

BNPL is still a small retail payments player. While 73% of US consumers said they鈥檇 heard of BNPL in 2022, just 5.8% said they鈥檇 used it at least once over a 30-day period. US BNPL value will hit $80.77 billion in 2024, per our forecast鈥攋ust 1.1% of total US retail sales.

The news: Klarna and Afterpay will not share the majority of their consumers鈥� loan information with credit bureaus until they can receive confirmation that their customers will not be penalized for seeking buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans. Our take: Affirm鈥檚 early plunge into credit reporting has been blunted against its competitors鈥� refusal to participate in the system, but it still takes the reputational lead in terms of being a 鈥渢rustworthy鈥� provider.

On today's episode, we discuss why brands should be thinking more about community; Apple rolling out its buy now, pay later offering; consumers' shipping priorities; H&M's new resale program; what in-store retail robots can do; facts about US national parks; and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, vice president of content Suzy Davidkhanian, and analyst Blake Droesch.

The news: Michigan State University Federal Credit Union (MSUFCU) launched an in-house buy now, pay later (BNPL) feature to serve its members鈥� financial needs, per a press release. Our take: Credit unions can compete with big banks and fintechs alike by leaning into what younger consumers want. Catering to these student members helps credit unions stave off their age dilemma: In 2023, 69% of credit union customers were Gen X or older, per a McKinsey & Company study. Conversely, banks are performing better with younger consumers: 41% of their banking population is millennial and Gen Z and 58% are Gen X or older. As graying members spend down savings and shrink credit unions鈥� deposits and interest income, players like MSUFCU can strengthen their banking relationships with young members through aligned alternative finance methods like BNPL.

Gen Zers are most likely to experience a problem with the payment method. These concerns could weaken BNPL transaction growth

In-store payments provide a new growth avenue for BNPL providers facing slower industrywide volume growth

Millennials and Gen Zers can finance snow sport luxury with BNPL鈥攂oosting Affirm鈥檚 non-retail volume.

Click below to view our full forecasts featured in this report:. US buy now, pay later payment value. US cryptocurreny payment users. US retail social commerce sales.

Competing with BNPL: The Escape card will also offer BMO PaySmart Installment Plans. With cardholders already preferring card-linked installment plans over BNPL fintechs, BMO can snag millennial and Gen Z travelers: 44% of millennials and 42.6% of Gen Zers will use BNPL services this year, per our forecast.

The news: Affirm partnered with Shopmonkey and Xsolla so auto mechanics and video game developers can offer installment plans at checkout. Our take: Affirm has focused on building out its partnership network and the Affirm Card鈥攁nd its fiscal Q3 results (ended March 31, 2025) bear out the strategies鈥� success, with total revenues increasing 36% YoY.