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US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

BNPL will count more than 100 million users by 2027. Its high-growth days are in the past, with both the number of BNPL users and overall payment value decelerating. But it remains an important financing tool for consumers and has a long runway ahead: BNPL payment value will account for just 1.4% of overall retail sales in 2025, per our forecast.

From a slew of major partnerships to our forecasts for slower user growth, we look at the biggest BNPL trends of 2024鈥攁nd what they mean for 2025.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will rise 14.8% annually from 2023 through 2027, as BNPL fintech leaders adapt to a maturing market by diversifying product offerings and harnessing demographic trends.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) user growth is slowing, plummeting from 97.0% in 2021 to just 4.1% in 2028, according to our forecast.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) use hit a new high. Online shoppers stretched their budgets via BNPL, spending $991.2 million via the alternative payment method鈥攁 5.5% gain YoY. Our take: Consumers are finding ways to spend big during the holiday season. That鈥檚 why we expect US holiday sales to grow 4.3% this year and ecommerce sales to rise 9.0%.

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In-store payments provide a new growth avenue for BNPL providers facing slower industrywide volume growth

Gen Zers are most likely to experience a problem with the payment method. These concerns could weaken BNPL transaction growth

Klarna will generate $33.38 billion in US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value by 2027, pulling ahead of Affirm in a period of massive growth for BNPL providers, per our forecast.

BNPL is still a small retail payments player. While 73% of US consumers said they鈥檇 heard of BNPL in 2022, just 5.8% said they鈥檇 used it at least once over a 30-day period. US BNPL value will hit $80.77 billion in 2024, per our forecast鈥攋ust 1.1% of total US retail sales.

On today's episode, we discuss why brands should be thinking more about community; Apple rolling out its buy now, pay later offering; consumers' shipping priorities; H&M's new resale program; what in-store retail robots can do; facts about US national parks; and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, vice president of content Suzy Davidkhanian, and analyst Blake Droesch.

To view our full BNPL forecast collection, click here. However, BNPL acts more like a companion to private label cards than a replacement. It echoes the relationship between BNPL and general-purpose credit cards: The latter doesn鈥檛 significantly eat into card growth thanks to card-specific benefits like strong rewards programs and credit-building capabilities.

The BNPL provider has made strong inroads in the US but faces steep obstacles in growing its market share

Offering BNPL at checkout can make its buy button more attractive to the 91.5 million US users we forecast will pay with BNPL this year. And Afterpay will gain access to Cash App鈥檚 57 million active users, which can help the BNPL provider circumvent an industrywide user growth slowdown. Our take: Block is trying to tie its various brands more closely to Cash App.

A lot happens in a week, so every Friday we're going to analyze all the new data and provide you with some of the key takeaways. Welcome to the Friday 5. This week, Temu and Shein get a scare, consumers use buy now, pay later (BNPL) apps to discover new products, and Super Bowl viewers don鈥檛 really care about ads for AI products or services.

Despite an industrywide push to grow via nonmerchant partnerships, BNPL players still rely on individual deals to reach large merchants

Affirm teams up with JPMorgan to expand BNPL reach: The partnership will help the fintech keep pace with Klarna and capitalize on growing demand for flexible payment options.

Gen Zers are driving growth in both emerging and traditional payment methods as they embrace cards, BNPL, and digital wallets. Payment providers must now align their offerings with Gen Z鈥檚 preferences as the cohort鈥檚 spending power grows.