蘑菇AV

The news: As the 2025 economy tightens under the pressure of tariffs, AI disruption, and shifting global trade policy, brands are embracing adaptability. Retail growth forecasts have been slashed, inflation-wary consumers are scaling back, and even luxury sentiment is weakening. Our take: Resilient brands are leaning into agile planning, reallocating media spend to ROI-focused channels like search and digital out-of-home, and anchoring value in trust and quality鈥攏ot just price. As emotional volatility shapes consumer decisions, marketers who show relevance and reassurance will lead. The brands that win won鈥檛 wait for stability鈥攖hey鈥檒l build strategies that succeed amid constant change.

US social ad spend will grow YoY in 2025, even as platforms grapple with tariff-related budget cuts from industries that spend heavily on social channels, like CPG and retail.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes鈥攏ot impressions鈥攚ill shape the next era.

In China, ecommerce channel ad spending represents over 38% of total digital ad spending, and ecommerce search spending accounts for 64.0% of total search. Could the US figures reach similar heights?

China鈥檚 example would suggest that retail media has enormous headroom for growth in the US. Companies like Amazon have been growing their ad revenues by leaps and bounds, and yet ecommerce channel ad spending will still only represent 14.6% of the US digital ad market this year. In China, the share will be 38.1%.

As China鈥檚 retail media advertising market begins to mature, off-site channels鈥攊ncluding WeChat and Douyin, TikTok's sister app in China鈥攚ill increasingly drive growth.

Connected TV (CTV) has emerged as the fastest-growing ad channel tracked by 蘑菇AV. Its ad spend outpaced other digital ads, search, social media, and retail media in 2024.

Led by retail media, commerce media is well on its way to becoming an essential component of many advertisers鈥� media budgets. But a rapidly diversifying field of competitors will change how advertisers approach the channel.