蘑菇AV

The situation: The so-called de minimis trade loophole, which lets foreign packages under $800 enter the US tariff-free, closes Friday, August 29. The White House already ended the exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2. Companies have had little time to prepare since President Donald Trump signed the executive order in late July. Many are now scrambling to adjust. Our take: With no end to tariff-related instability in sight, companies must find ways to adapt to an uncertain trade landscape. It鈥檚 become a business imperative.

The milestone: Amazon recently deployed its 1 millionth robot in its fulfillment centers鈥攁 figure approaching the number of human workers at those facilities. Our take: Automation is a central element within Amazon鈥檚 relentless push to narrow the gap between click and doorstep. Fast delivery isn鈥檛 just about convenience; it transforms how consumers shop. The faster Amazon gets everyday essentials like toothpaste into customers鈥� hands鈥攅specially with free delivery for Prime members鈥攖he harder it becomes for other retailers to compete. That gives Amazon a durable edge as it looks to expand its share of US ecommerce sales.

The trend: Summer retail sales are starting earlier and stretching longer than ever. Our take: Retailers aren鈥檛 just chasing summer sales鈥攖hey鈥檙e building revenue engines that integrate ecommerce, loyalty programs, and retail media into a more durable flywheel. By making sales events exclusive to members or offering perks like early access to deals, they鈥檙e encouraging sign-ups, deepening engagement, and boosting long-term customer value. The longer promotional windows give retailers more time to drive discretionary spending, alleviate fulfillment bottlenecks, and monetize digital traffic through advertising. That鈥檚 especially critical this year, as economic uncertainty prompts more consumers to pull back on nonessential purchases.

Amazon discourages sellers from stockpiling goods with capacity limits: The strategy aims to prevent overload at its fulfillment centers, but it complicates merchants鈥� tariff mitigation abilities.

For Walmart, the move could also unlock more spending from sellers鈥攏ot just on fulfillment services, but also for its fast-growing Walmart Connect ad business.

Our take: Amazon鈥檚 scale and fulfillment capabilities give it a unique cost and speed advantage that many online grocers can鈥檛 match. If the company can convert trial shoppers into repeat customers, it could build a profitable fresh food business where others have struggled.

It recently announced the launch of five fulfillment centers to accelerate deliveries across smaller towns and cities鈥攁 strategic move to better compete with homegrown rivals like Blinkit (Eternal Ltd.), Instamart (Swiggy Ltd.), and Zepto in the rapidly growing quick commerce space that will reach $18.3 billion by 2027.

Three in four US online shoppers consider fast delivery to be important, per a YouGov survey. Just 8% believe it to be unimportant. Thanks to Amazon Prime and similar offerings, consumers have come to expect free and fast shipping. But if forced to pick between the two, shoppers will accept slower delivery speeds if it means no extra cost. That鈥檚 good news for brands that can鈥檛 afford to compete with the likes of Amazon and Walmart on speed.

Demand for food delivery strengthened in Q2, DoorDash and Uber said, as more customers become used to ordering restaurant meals and groceries online. Order frequency on Uber鈥檚 delivery platform reached all-time highs during the quarter, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said in prepared remarks, while volumes and profitability for the unit also hit record levels. Delivery bookings jumped 20% YoY, while revenues surged 25%. DoorDash also broke records, with total orders (up 20% YoY), marketplace GOV (up 23%), and revenues (up 25%) all surpassing previous quarterly highs. Food delivery is one area that is so far immune to uncertainty鈥攁 sign that consumers are increasingly wedded to services that offer convenience, and are willing to pay a premium (or at least a membership fee) to get food and other goods delivered quickly to their doors.

India鈥檚 commerce landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, fueled by booming ecommerce, rising mobile shopping, and the growing influence of social media.

Placing them in densely populated areas helps Walmart fill inventory gaps between retail locations and larger fulfillment centers. The bigger picture: Dark stores are just one piece of Walmart鈥檚 larger strategy to strengthen its online business, which is expected to turn a profit for the first time this year.

The strategy is designed to optimize the retailer鈥檚 rural infrastructure, shorten last-mile distances, and bring faster fulfillment to areas that have historically had to wait days for their orders to arrive.

The insight: Food delivery has become an ingrained habit, with more consumers turning to the service multiple times per day. Our take: With more restaurant spending being funneled through platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, operators are having to rethink their acquisition strategy. Companies previously reluctant to sign on to their marketplaces鈥攍ike Olive Garden and Domino鈥檚鈥攁re changing their tune as it becomes clear that consumers鈥� affinity for delivery is not a pandemic blip. At the same time, DoorDash and its competitors are aiming higher. For them, food delivery is merely the first stepping stone toward becoming a one-stop shop for all of consumers鈥� needs, from restaurant meals to groceries to pet and home improvement supplies. That鈥檚 an ambitious goal, and one that is not yet reflected in shoppers鈥� behavior鈥攂ut that could change as people become more accustomed to spending time on delivery apps.

Fortify omnichannel infrastructure with fulfillment as a service or in-store and on-premise technology. Sources. Grocery Dive. Klarna. Koddi.

Walmart鈥檚 role: Like Dollar General, Walmart is leaning on its vast store base as fulfillment centers to enable it to offer same-day delivery across rural regions. That positioning makes it a formidable rival to both Amazon and Dollar General. Like Amazon, it is also pushing its membership program鈥擶almart+鈥攚hich benefits from similar stickiness.

Mercado Libre is borrowing from Amazon鈥檚 playbook, leaning into faster fulfillment to drive spending. Our take: Mercado Libre鈥檚 retail media engine is firing on all cylinders, providing high-margin fuel to support key growth levers like free shipping and brand marketing.

The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target鈥檚 Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn鈥檛 just subscription revenues鈥攊t鈥檚 their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk鈥攕treaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping鈥攁nd the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360鈥檚 offerings.

The news: Instacart鈥檚 efforts to win over more cost-conscious consumers and its growing suite of enterprise and advertising solutions helped the company handily beat Q2 expectations. Coming on the heels of record quarters for DoorDash and Uber, Instacart鈥檚 strong results point to resilient demand for delivery services in an otherwise challenging consumer environment. Instacart鈥檚 strong Q2 shows that the company is well-equipped to manage any slowdown in US digital grocery sales鈥攁s well as fend off growing competition from Uber and DoorDash. The surge in orders will be particularly reassuring to advertisers, particularly the many CPGs looking to increase marketing spend.

Google is enhancing its retail ad offerings with loyalty-driven personalization tools aimed at retention. New features include personalized pricing and shipping perks for loyalty members, a 鈥渓oyalty mode鈥� in Google Ads鈥� retention goal to optimize for high-lifetime-value customers, and personalized annotations in Performance Max campaigns. Sephora, an early adopter, reported a 20% lift in click-through rates from loyalty-focused annotations. The launch comes as loyalty ranks high on shoppers鈥� holiday priorities and as CMOs lean on loyalty programs to bolster first-party data. With Amazon pulling away from Google, the updates position Ads as a retention engine in the retail fight.

Amazon is ending its Prime Invitee program, which allowed members to share benefits outside of their households. The program will officially end on October 1. Amazon is relying on a tried-and-true tactic to boost memberships. While the retailer has several irons in the fire, including investments in rural delivery and grocery that it expects will increase Prime鈥檚 stickiness, it will take time for those initiatives to bear fruit. But an immediate account-sharing crackdown pays off right away.

More Amazon Prime shoppers purchase groceries from Walmart than from the ecommerce retailer, according to Coresight Research data reported by Grocery Dive. While grocery is a hugely important category for Amazon to conquer, its efforts so far have been hampered by a complex ecosystem. The retailer鈥檚 attempts to unify that system could result in a more seamless experience for shoppers, while its fast delivery capabilities could make it a more appealing place to shop for perishables.

The challenges: UPS鈥� turnaround remains in the early innings due to structural inefficiencies, operational missteps, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds. Our take: UPS faces a difficult road ahead. The company is actively trying to streamline operations鈥攑lanning to shutter up to 10% of its buildings, downsize its fleet, and reduce its US workforce to better align with leaner volumes. It鈥檚 also trimming low-margin business, notably cutting back on Amazon deliveries, which made up as much as 11.8% of its total revenues last year, in an effort to prioritize more profitable shipments. Still, with demand under pressure and cost headwinds mounting, stabilizing performance will be an uphill climb.

The trend: Older consumers pick up their prescription medicines in person more often, while Gen Z looks to buy Rx drugs online, per M3 MI鈥檚 Consumer Health Study of over 20,000 US adults. The takeaway: Drugmakers can lean into tailored marketing efforts that match age demographics and retail preferences. Amazon Pharmacy doesn鈥檛 take ads, but pharma companies can show young people getting Amazon Rx deliveries. On the flip side, feature older actors or promote vaccine messages via retail media in grocery stores.