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Grocery delivery intermediaries like DoorDash and Uber are gaining ground, offering new ways to reach high-intent shoppers. Meanwhile, retailers like Walmart and Amazon continue to lead with strong delivery infrastructure and valuable customer data.

The reality: Tariff-driven grocery price hikes have been relatively modest so far this year. Food and beverage prices rose 2.9% YoY through mid-May, up from 1.7% a year earlier, per Circana. While tariffs haven鈥檛 caused a major inflation spike, supply-side shocks鈥攍ike drought, avian flu, and extreme weather鈥攈ave pushed up prices on staples such as coffee, eggs, and chocolate. Our take: Tariffs haven鈥檛 led to major price hikes yet, but that鈥檚 likely to change soon as duties push up costs on goods like seafood, alcohol, and produce. And even before those increases take effect, shoppers are becoming more cautious, more price-sensitive, and quicker to trade down or skip nonessentials altogether.

Amazon breaks its silence on grocery business: CEO Andy Jassy is 鈥渧ery bullish鈥� about retailer鈥檚 prospects as more customers stock up on everyday essentials.

The trend: Scarcity still sells. Even as consumers become more budget-conscious, limited releases continue to spark outsize demand and buzz. Our take: Consumers are drawn to the new, the novel, and the exclusive. That鈥檚 why limited releases continue to deliver results. They create urgency and give brands a way to protect margins鈥攅ven at a time when many shoppers are rethinking their overall spending.

US sales of private label grocery brands grew 3.9% in 2024, outpacing the 1.0% growth of national brands, according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA).

SNAP rollbacks could shrink grocery baskets and curb discretionary spend: With household spending already under strain, further benefit cuts risk triggering a broader pullback in consumer demand.

The news: Eight years after acquiring Whole Foods, Amazon is moving to more fully integrate the grocer into its core business, Business Insider reports. Our take: Amazon is clearly aware of the friction鈥攁nd the opportunity鈥攊n its grocery ecosystem.

Brand loyalty membership is rebounding in the UK as shoppers turn to loyalty programs for savings. Supermarkets are driving innovation, but there is space for brands and retailers of all sizes to boost revenues and forge stronger customer connections.

The news: President Donald Trump鈥檚 immigration crackdown is chilling consumer spending and reducing the available labor force for key industries like construction and hospitality. Our take: The US economy depends heavily on immigrants, both documented or otherwise. The Trump administration鈥檚 aggressive deportation push could therefore deprive companies of crucial workers鈥攁nd drive up costs for essentials like housing and groceries鈥攁s well as eliminate a considerable source of tax revenues and consumer spending.

The news: US retail sales fell more than expected in May from April, the latest sign that tariff fears and economic volatility are affecting consumer spending. Our take: While May鈥檚 retail sales data largely show that consumers are hanging in, the situation remains unpredictable鈥攅specially given the fact that tariff-driven price hikes have yet to kick in for a multitude of everyday purchases, including groceries and apparel.

The situation: Low-income Americans are feeling squeezed by high prices, declining pay, and public assistance that doesn鈥檛 go far enough. Bottom line: Declining after-tax income and tariff-driven inflation mean relief for low-income Americans is unlikely anytime soon. Their budgets will tighten, shrinking grocery baskets and curbing discretionary spending. While Walmart, Dollar General, and other value retailers are currently propped up by higher-income shoppers, that cushion could quickly disappear if those customers expect tax-cut windfalls and return to old spending habits.

The insight: Growing GLP-1 usage could reduce McDonald鈥檚 annual sales by as much as $428 million, or 1% of system sales, according to an analysis by researchers at Redburn Atlantic. The impact could widen to 10% or more 鈥渙ver time,鈥� the analysts wrote, for brands like McDonald鈥檚 that are 鈥渟kewed toward lower-income consumers or group occasions.鈥� Our take: GLP-1s are just one of the many factors influencing what consumers eat. With economic uncertainty looming large, financial concerns are the biggest consideration for the majority of consumers鈥攚hich is why households are choosing to eat at home more often and increasingly opting for private labels at the grocery store.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

How can retailers in grocery, the second-largest ecommerce category, optimize their online business to succeed?

Last month, M&M's launched its first loyalty program, Fun Club, allowing consumers to earn points by completing activities and redeem them for sweepstakes entries or M&M's merchandise. While loyalty programs are typically associated with high-frequency purchases鈥攍ike groceries, travel, or restaurants鈥攅ven low-frequency brands are using loyalty to increase engagement, gather data, and drive sales amid rising competition.

Every step of the grocery shopping journey is being digitized; how do consumers feel about it?

Grocery sales shifting online is a lasting legacy of the pandemic: We expect 13.7% of grocery sales to occur online this year, more than double the 6.2% share in prepandemic 2019.